Opinion polling for the 2006 Peruvian general election

Opinion polling for the 2006 Peruvian national election was carried out by pollsters authorized by the National Election Jury both in the races for the Presidency and Congress. Several candidates expressed skepticism about poll results and even accused the pollsters of deliberately lying. The Peruvian Association of Market Research (Asociación Peruana de Investigación de Mercados, APEIM) rejected such criticism and demanded formal apologies by those who accused the companies. APEIM also criticized the pollster IDICE, not belonging to the association, for critical flaws in its methodology. The company's results are nevertheless included in the section below. Also, it is illegal to publish electoral opinion polls in Peru during the week prior to an election. Pollsters, however, released their results to the foreign press during the week before the First Round and these were widely available on the Internet. This drew criticism from electoral authorities, even though no law was technically broken.

The deadline for the registration of presidential candidates was 9 January 2006. Polls conducted before this date are more speculative in nature, since the final set of options was not yet known before then.

Dates Pollster Source O. Humala (UPP) A. García (PAP) L. Flores (UN) M. Chávez (AF) V. Paniagua (FC)Jan 2005Datum3%18%17%n/a24%1 8 April 2005CPI2.8%17.5%16.0%7.2%14.7%Apr 2005Apoyo5%21%17%n/a23%May 2005Datum3%19%23%n/a29%June 2005Datum5%20%19%n/a16%6–12 July 2005CPI2.3%15.5%17.5%9.6%12.8%Aug 2005Apoyo7%18%22%n/a18%Aug 2005Datum5%20%26%n/a19%Sep 2005Datum5%18%23%n/a13%10 14 October 2005Apoyo8%17%27%n/a15%13 23 October 2005IDICE9.1%23.6%26.5%n/a7.6%22 28 October 2005CPI5.1%12.0%27.6%9.5%10.0%10 11 November 2005Apoyo11%17%28%n/a17%12 15 November 2005Datum13%16%30%n/a15%19 23 November 2005CPI15.0%13.4%25.6%1.5%11.3%3 4 December 2005UL14.6%16.2%25.6%2.4%8.3%3 8 December 2005Apoyo22%16%25%n/a14%16 19 November 2005Datum23%15%26%1%12%19 23 December 2005IDICE21.7%19.8%21.2%n/a16.7%9 12 January 2006IDICE26.3%20.3%20.7%7.0%11.2%11 13 January 2006Apoyo28%15%25%2%10%13 14 January 2006Datum25%14%26%n/a11%16 19 January 2006POP25%14%30%2%11%20 22 January 2006UL16.8%11.9%28.1%2.5%7.2%21 23 January 2006AyC19.5%14.6%30.9%1.8%14.2%21 24 January 2006CPI18.2%13.1%28.8%n/a6.3%25 27 January 2006Apoyo22%13%30%n/a8%21 28 January 2006IMA18.7%14.7%27.2%4.2%5.5%3 5 February 2006IDICE18.4%20.8%27.2%8.1%6.1%8 10 February 2006Apoyo20% (25%)13% (17%)27% (35%)4% (6%)7% (8%)10 11 February 2006Datum24% (28%)15% (18%)29% (34%)4% (5%)8% (10%)11 15 February 2006UAP21.4%16.8%23.3%3.5%6.0%15 17 February 2006Conecta18.3% (18.3%)16.0% (20.5%)27.3% (34.8%)3.5% (4.4%)8.6% (11.0%)16 18 February 2006AyC19.4%16.3%29.2%3.8%4.9%22 24 February 2006Apoyo19% (26%)16% (22%)24% (33%)3% (4%)5% (7%)24 26 February 2006PUCP20% (25%)14% (18%)29% (35%)4% (5%)6% (8%)24 26 February 2006UL20.6% (27.6%)15.3% (20.5%)25.1% (33.6%)3.6% (4.8%)6.4% (8.5%)24 26 February 2006IDICE19.3% 22.4%24.3%7.1%5.6%26 February 2006 (p)POP22% 16%30%4%n/a23 27 February 2006CPI(25.5%)(21.5%)(34.1%)(4.9%)(7.8%)24 February – 2 March 2006IMA21.6% 20.1%26.9%2.8%4.5%8 10 March 2006Apoyo22% (30%)16% (22%)23% (31%)4% (5%)4% (5%)10 12 March 2006Datum26% 19%27%4%8%11 13 March 2006IDICE23.3%22.8%23.6%5.0%6.1%15 17 March 2006Apoyo27% (32%)17% (21%)23% (28%)6% (6%)6% (7%)15 19 March 2006CPI(31.6%)(21.6%)(21.9%)(5.5%)(6.0%)18 19 March 2006UNI28.8%16.3%24.8%3.8%5.3%19 March 2006UAP28.9%16.9%23.1%5.5%5.9%20 22 March 2006IDICE26.8%24.4%21.6%5.7%4.7%22 24 March 2006Apoyo27% (33%)18% (22%)22% (27%)6% (7%)5% (6%)23 25 March 2006Conecta30.4% (30.4%)18.3% (20.6%)24.5% (27.7%)5.1% (5.7%)4.4% (5.0%)24 26 March 2006PUCP27% (31%)18% (20%)24% (27%)6% (7%)6% (7%)24 26 March 2006UL28.2% (32.6%)19.9% (22.7%)22.9% (26.1%)5.4% (6.3%)4.9% (5.6%)27 March 2006 (p)Datum31%21%26%6%5%27 31 March 2006CPI(31.5%)(23.1%)(26.8%)(5.9%)(6.7%)27 31 March 2006Apoyo26% (31%)19% (23%)22% (26%)6% (7%)5% (6%)4 6 April 2006IDICE27.7% (31.8%)22.6% (25.9%)19.6% (22.5%)3.9% (4.5%)7.5% (8.6%)5 April 2006Datum(26%)(24%)(24%)(8%)(7%)5 April 2006UL26.2% (29.2%)19.7% (21.9%)23.0% (25.6%)7.4% (8.3%)6.4% (7.2%)8 April 2006Apoyo24% (27%)21% (23%)21% (23%)7% (7%)7% (8%)

Dates Pollster Source O. Humala (UPP) vs A. García (PAP) O. Humala (UPP) vs L. Flores (UN) A. García (PAP) vs L. Flores (UN)13 23 October 2005IDICEn/an/a35.4% 42.1%22 28 October 2005CPIn/an/a23.6% 51.5%10 11 November 2005Apoyo30% 31%23% 58%23% 56%12 15 November 2005Datumn/a23% 58%23% 54%3 4 December 2005UL33.0% 34.5%27.1% 60.4%25.9% 59.6%3 8 December 2005Apoyo44% 31%35% 50%26% 54%16 19 December 2005Datumn/a34% 50%24% 53%11 13 January 2006Apoyo44% 29%39% 46%23% 56%13 14 January 2006Datum41% 28%35% 50%25% 52%20 22 January 2006UL34.2% – 32.9%27.7% 51.1%22.6% 60.0%25 27 January 2006Apoyo40% 30%34% 52%22% 57%21 28 January 2006IMA31.5% 29.2%27.5% 46.0%22.9% 44.6%8 10 February 2006Apoyo37% 35% (51% 49%)33% 52% (39% 61%)27% 54% (33% 67%)10 11 February 2006Datumn/a34% 50%25% 54%11 15 February 2006UAP34.9% 28.3%32.6% 42.8%24.8% 44.6%15 17 February 2006Conecta32% 29%31% 48%26% 45%22 24 February 2006Apoyo36% – 37% (50% 50%)34% 50% (40% 60%)31% 50% (38% 62%)23 27 February 2006CPI34.8% 37.5% (48.1% 51.9%)31.1% 48.6% (39.0% 61.0%)29.0% 47.9% (37.7% 62.3%)24 26 February 2006PUCP33.7% – 33.5%30.2% 50.5%26.8% 51.1%24 26 February 2006UL36.7% – 32.3%33.3% 49.6%27.1% 52.2%24 February – 2 March 2006IMA32.3% 33.8%28.8% 43.1%28.4% 40.9%8 10 March 2006Apoyo41% 36% (52% 47%)39% 46% (46% 54%)32% 47% (41% 59%)10 12 March 2006Datum40% 33%36% 47%29% 48%15 17 March 2006Apoyo45% 33% (57% 43%)43% 44% (50% 50%)33% 46% (41% 59%)15 19 March 2006CPI38.5% – 32.0% (54.3% 45.7%)36.6% 41.5% (47.1% 52.9%)29.0% 43.2% (40.5% 59.5%)18 19 March 2006UNI39.1% 29.6%37.5% 40.4%28.3% 42.9%19 March 2006UAP39.5% 29.5%38.8% 38.8%28.2% 41.2%22 24 March 2006Apoyo42% 39% (52% 48%)40% 47% (47% 53%)35% 46% (43% 57%)23 25 March 2006Conecta41% 33%39% 41%31% 41%24 26 March 2006PUCP(53% 47%)(45% 55%)(41% 59%)24 26 March 2006UL43.9% 36.7%41.3% 46.6%31.5% 48.0%27 31 March 2006Apoyo39% 37% (51% 49%)38% 46% (45% 55%)32% 45% (42% 58%)27 31 March 2006CPI(49.7 50.3%)(44.9% 55.1%)(41.5% 58.5%)5 April 2006UL37.7% 41.3%37.3% 48.6%n/a

Dates Pollster Source Ollanta Humala (UPP) Alan García (PAP)19 21 April 2006Datum37% (46%)43% (54%)29 April – 1 May 2006Datum34% (44%)43% (56%)28 April – 3 May 2006IDICE34.8% (45.9%)42.5% (55.0%)19 21 April 2006Apoyo34% (43%)44% (57%)2–7 May 2006CPI(38.6%)(61.4%)6–8 May 2006Datum33% (43%)44% (57%)10–12 May 2006Apoyo34% (44%)43% (56%)12–14 May 2006UL31.1% (38.1%)50.6% (61.9%)18–19 May 2006Datum35% (42%)47% (58%)18–21 May 2006PUCP35% (46%)42% (54%)19–21 May 2006UL31.3% (38.8%)49.3% (61.2%)24–25 May 2006CPI(40.1%)(59.9%)23–26 May 2006IDICE36.8% (36.8%)48.2% (56.7%)24–26 May 2006Apoyo36% (45%)44% (55%)25–26 May 2006Datum(42%)(58%)27 May 2006 (p)Conecta34.7% (43.1%)45.8% (56.9%)30–31 May 2006Apoyo(47%)(53%)31 May 2006Datum(43%)(57%)31 May 2006UL(44.1%)(55.9%)31 May – 1 June 2006CPI(46.2%)(53.8%)3 June 2006Apoyo(47%)(53%)

The deadline for the registration of congressional candidates was 8 February 2006. Polls conducted before this date are more speculative. For many of these early polls, several coalitions were not even official, so some responses included parties which did not end up running by themselves. These are included in some entries below, along with the appropriate abbreviation as outlined above. In particular, while the Sí Cumple party did not officially belong to Alliance for the Future, pollsters themselves often lumped it together with the other fujimorista movements before the AF coalition came into being, largely due to the perception that the same politicians belonged to these parties. This is not technically correct, but Sí Cumple results are still included below, though with an asterisk to make the difference clear (SC*). Projected seat allocation in Congress, out of 120 seats, are included in square brackets when available. Dates Pollster Source UPP PAP UN AF FC PP13 23 October 2005IDICE10.7% PNP17.7%13.1%11.1% SC*7.9% AP 5.3% SP2.2%22 28 October 2005CPI3.4% PNP13.8%14.3% 10.4% SN8.6% SC*10.2% AP 3.1% SP1.3%10 11 November 2005Apoyo8%17%15%12% C90/NM/SC*8% AP 4% SP2%12 15 November 2005Datum2% PNP15%17%9% C90/SC*9% AP 2% SP2.2%3 4 December 2005UL1.6%17.1%18.2%6.4% SC*10.6% AP2.3%16 19 December 2005Datum9% PNP17%24%4% SC*5%n/a19 23 December 2005IDICE14.9% PNP18.7%16.3%6.8% SC*15.0%3.6%9 12 January 2006IDICE22.9%19.1%17.8%7.7%11.3%5.0%11 13 January 2006Apoyo12%15%17%2% 6% SC*7%1%20 22 January 2006UL8.2%20.2%14.6%2.8%5.6%2.5%21 28 January 2006IMA4.4%7.7%7.8%2.2%2.7%0.2%8 10 February 2006Apoyo10% (15%)13% (21%)18% (27%)4% (7%)6% (10%)2% (3%)10 11 February 2006Datum8%14%16%n/a4%1%22 24 February 2006Apoyo9% (15%)26% (16%)14% (22%)4% (6%)6% (9%)2% (4%)24 26 February 2006PUCP6.0% (10.8%)13.5% (21.1%)16.7% (26.1%)3.6% (5.7%)4.2% (6.6%)3.2% (5.0%)24 26 February 2006IDICE12.6% [17 seats] 17.8% [34 seats]15.4% [21 seats]10.6% [16 seats]7.8% [10 seats]2.0% [1 seat]24 26 February 2006UL6.5% (10.5%)14.7% (23.5%)14.8% (23.7%)3.9% (6.3%)6.9% (11.0%)3.0% (4.9%)23 27 February 2006CPI8.1% (13.6%)13.6% (22.7%)14.3% (23.5%)3.1% (5.2%)8.7% (14.6%)1.9% (3.2%)24 February – 2 March 2006IMA8.5%14.8%13.7%3.7%4.5%1.4%8 10 March 2006Apoyo11% (17%)15% (23%)13% (20%)6% (9%)5% (8%)2% (3%)10 12 March 2006Datum13%17%18%6%6%2%11 13 March 2006IDICE14.2%18.9%15.9%8.8%8.1%2.0%15 17 March 2006Apoyo12% (16%)16% (22%)13% (18%)8% (12%)5% (7%)3% (4%)15 19 March 2006CPI9.2% (15.5%)13.1% (21.4%)11.8% (18.9%)6.7% (10.5%)6.0% (9.7%)3.8% (5.8%)18 19 March 2006UNI16.8%17.2%17.0%6.1%6.8%n/a22 24 March 2006Apoyo11% (16%)14% (21%)11% (16%)8% (11%)5% (7%)4% (6%)23 25 March 2006Conecta15.8% (20.9%)17.2% (22.7%)17.4% (23.0%)5.2% (6.9%)4.8% (6.3%)2.5% (3.3%)24 26 March 2006PUCP14.1%15.1%16.1%9.4%4.5%2.6%24 26 March 2006UL10.7% (14.2%)15.8% (21.0%)14.2% (18.8%)8.5% (11.3%)6.5% (8.6%)4.1% (5.5%)27 31 March 2006Apoyo11% (16%) [31 seats]14% (19%) [36 seats]12% (16%) [25 seats]11% (15%) [15 seats]6% (9%) [8 seats]4% (6%) [5 seats]5 April 2006Datum[36 seats][36 seats][23 seats][17 seats][8 seats][0 seats]5 April 2006UL11.6% (14.6%)15.4% (19.4%)13.5% (17.0%)11.8% (14.8%)5.8% (7.4%)3.8% (4.9%)8 April 2006Apoyo[29 seats][38 seats][24 seats][14 seats][9 seats][3 seats]