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Process of adjusting to effects of climate change

Climate change adaptation is the process of adjusting to the effects of climate change. These can be both current or expected impacts. Adaptation aims to moderate or avoid harm for people, and is usually done alongside climate change mitigation. It also aims to exploit opportunities. Humans may also intervene to help adjustment for natural systems. bearing the brunt of its effects. Adaptation needs are high for food, water and other sectors important for economic output, jobs and incomes. Adaptation planning is important to help countries manage climate risks. Plans, policies or strategies are in place in more than 70% of countries. "In natural systems, adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate this."

Research on climate change adaptation has been ongoing since the 1990s. The number and variety of subtopics has greatly increased since then. Adaptation has become an established policy area in the 2010s and since the Paris Agreement, and an important topic for policy research.

Scientific research into climate change adaptation generally starts with analyses of the likely effects of climate change on people, ecosystems, and the environment. These impacts cover its effects on lives, livelihoods, health and well being, ecosystems and species, economic, social and cultural assets, and infrastructure. Impacts may include changed agricultural yields, increased floods, and droughts or coral reef bleaching. Analysis of such impacts is an important step in understanding current and future adaptation needs and options. As of 2022, the level of warming is 1.2°C (2.2°F) above levels before the industrial revolution. It is on track to increase to 2.5 to 2.9°C (4.5 to 5.2°F) by the end of the century. This is causing a variety of secondary effects. Many negative effects of climate change involve changes in extremes or the way conditions vary rather than changes in average conditions. For example, the average sea level in a port might not be as important as the height of water during a storm surge. That is because a storm surge can cause flooding. The average rainfall in an area might not be as important as how frequent and severe droughts and extreme precipitation events become.

Climate change contributes to disaster risk. So experts sometimes see climate change adaptation as one of many processes within disaster risk reduction. In turn, disaster risk reduction is part of the broader consideration of sustainable development. Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction have similar goals (to reduce potential impacts of hazards and increase the resilience of people at risk). They use similar concepts and are informed by similar sources and studies. Disasters are often triggered by natural hazards. A natural event such as a fire or flood is not of itself a disaster: it's only when it affects people or is caused by them that is counts as a disaster. It is argued that natural disasters are always linked to human action or inaction or rooted in anthropogenic processes. Disasters, economic loss, and the underlying vulnerabilities that drive risk are increasing. Global risks like climate change are having major impacts everywhere. Scientists forecast climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events and disasters. So adaptation may include measures to increase preparedness and relevant disaster response capacities.

For humans, adaptation aims to moderate or avoid harm, and to exploit opportunities. For natural systems, humans may intervene to help adjustment. Even if greenhouse gas emissions are stopped relatively soon, global warming and its effects will last many years. This is due to the inertia of the climate system. So both carbon neutrality ("net zero") and adaptation are necessary. The Global Goal on Adaptation was also established under the Paris Agreement. The specific targets and indicators for the Global Goal are in development as of 2023. It will support the long term adaptation goals of the governments that are parties to the agreement. It also aims to fund support for the most vulnerable countries’ adaptation needs in the context of the 1.5/2°C goal. It has three core components. These are reducing vulnerability to climate change, enhancing adaptive capacity, and strengthening resilience.

Managing the codes or regulations that buildings must conform to is important for keeping people healthy and comfortable during extremes of hot and cold and protecting them from floods. There are many ways to do this. They include increasing the insulation values, adding solar shading, increasing natural ventilation or passive cooling, codes for green roofs to reduce urban heat island effects or requiring waterfront properties to have higher foundations. There is an increasing availability of such options. For example, index based insurance is a new product which triggers payment when weather indices such as precipitation or temperature cross a threshold. It aims to help customers such as farmers deal with production risks. Access to reinsurance may make cities more resilient. Where there are failures in the private insurance market, the public sector can subsidize premiums. One study identified key equity issues for policy considerations: Insurance can also undermine other efforts such as property level protection and resilience to increase adaptation. Appropriate land use policies can counter this behavioural effect. These policies limit new construction where there are current or future climate risks. They also encourage the adoption of resilient building codes to mitigate potential damages.

Coordination helps achieve goals shared by a range of people or organizations. Examples are information sharing or joint implementation of adaptation options. Coordination helps use resources effectively. It avoids duplication, promotes consistency across government, and makes it easier for all people and organizations involved to understand the work. In the food production sector, adaptation projects financed through the UNFCCC often include coordination between national governments and administrations at the state, provincial or city level. There are fewer examples of coordination between community level and national government.

Individuals and households play a central role in adaptation. There are many examples particularly in the global south. Behavioural adaptation is a change in the strategies, practices and actions that help to reduce risk. These can include protecting homes from flooding, protecting crops from drought, and adopting different income earning activities. Behavioural change is the most common form of adaptation. This can happen at different points in the food supply chain. Thus it can be a risk to food security and nutrition. Adaptation measures can review the production, processing and other handling practices of suppliers. Examples include further sorting to separate damaged products, drying the product for better storage or improved packaging. Dietary change options in regions with excess consumption of calories include replacing meat and dairy foods with a higher share of plant based foods. This has both mitigation and adaptation benefits. Plant based options have much lower energy and water requirements. Adaptation options can investigate the dietary patterns that are better suited to the regional, socioeconomic and cultural context. Social cultural norms strongly affect preferences for foods. Policies such as subsidies, taxes, and marketing can also support dietary choices that help adaptation. Nature based solutions is an overarching term that includes actions known as ecosystem based adaptation. However NBS is not restricted to climate change, and often also refers to climate change mitigation. So it is a less specific term.

Demand for water for irrigation is likely to rise in a warmer climate. This will increase competition between agriculture and urban and industrial users. Agriculture is already the largest consumer of water in semi arid regions. Falling water tables and the resulting increase in energy to pump water will make irrigation more expensive. This is particularly the case when drier conditions will require more water per acre. Other strategies can make the most efficient use of water resources. The International Water Management Institute has suggested five strategies that could help Asia feed its growing population in light of climate change. These are modernizing existing irrigation schemes to suit modern methods of farming; supporting farmers' efforts to find their own water supplies by tapping into groundwater in a sustainable way; looking beyond conventional Participatory Irrigation Management schemes by working with the private sector; expanding capacity and knowledge; and investing outside the irrigation sector.

Reforestation is one way to stop desertification fueled by climate change and non sustainable land use. One of the most important projects is the Great Green Wall that aims to stop the southward expansion of the Sahara desert. By 2018 only 15% of it had been carried out. But there are already many positive effects. These include the restoration of over 12 million acres (5 million hectares) of degraded land in Nigeria; the planting of roughly 30 million acres of drought resistant trees across Senegal; and the restoration of 37 million acres of land in Ethiopia. Tree maintenance led to the refilling of groundwater wells with drinking water, additional food supplies for rural towns, and new sources of work and income for villagers.

This section looks at the main sectors and systems affected by climate change. Experts have assessed the risks and adaptation options for them.

The main risks to ecosystems from climate change are biodiversity loss, ecosystem structure change, increased tree mortality, increased wildfire, and ecosystem carbon losses. These risks are linked. Loss of species can increase the risks to ecosystem health. Ecosystems can respond to climatic and other environmental pressures in different ways. Individual organisms can respond through growth, movement and other developmental processes. Species and populations can relocate or genetically adapt. Human interventions can make ecosystems more resilient and help species adapt. Examples are protecting larger areas of semi natural habitat and creating links between parts of the landscape to help species move. Assisted migration is a potential solution to changes in environments due to climate change that are faster than natural selection can adapt to. It has the potential to allow species that have poor natural dispersal abilities to avoid extinction. However it has also sparked debate over the possibility of the introduction of invasive species and diseases into previously healthy ecosystems. Despite these debates, scientists and land managers have already begun the process of assisted migration for certain species. There have been several studies of the climate adaptive potential of butterflies. Both frameworks attribute their origins to a 2007 paper titled "Climate Change and Forests of the Future: Managing in the Face of Uncertainty". The Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) project is a collaborative effort to establish a series of experimental silvicultural trials across a network of different forest ecosystem types throughout the United States and Canada. It includes staff from both Canadian and U. S. forestry agencies, state forestry agencies, academic institutions, and forestry interest groups.

Climate change related risks to health include direct risks from extreme weather such as cold waves, storms, or prolonged high temperatures. There are also indirect risks such as mental health impacts of undernutrition or displacement caused by extreme weather. Similarly there are mental health risks from loss of access to green spaces, reduced air quality, or from anxiety about climate change. Agriculture is likely to be affected by changes in water availability, putting food security at risk. Irrigation has often contributed to groundwater depletion and changes in the water cycle. It can sometimes make a drought worse. Some of the most popular adaptations in agriculture include choosing less water intensive crops or drought and flood resistant varieties. They include shifting the timing of sowing and harvesting according to the start of the rainy season. There are other technological options available for saving water. The biggest livelihood related risks stem from losses of agricultural yields, impacts on human health and food security, destruction of homes, and loss of income. There are also risks to fish and livestock that livelihoods depend on. Options for adapting are less developed. They include developing resilient infrastructure in the originating country, increasing storage facilities to allow more buffer in the recipient country, or diversifying and re routing trade. Because these costs are much higher than the finance available, there is an adaptation gap. This is especially pressing in developing countries. This widening has become apparent because the overwhelming majority of global tracked climate finance goes to mitigation. Only a small proportion goes on adaptation. More regional estimates are also available. For example, the Asian Development Bank has a series of studies on the Economics of Climate Change in the Asia Pacific region. These studies provide cost analysis of both adaptation and mitigation measures. The WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system) assists water resources researchers and planners in assessing impacts of and adaptations to climate change. The United Nations Development Programme's Climate Change Adaptation Portal includes studies on climate change adaptation in Africa, Europe and Central Asia, and Asia and the Pacific.

As of 2007 there was still a lack of comprehensive, global cost and benefit estimates for adaptation. Since then, an extensive research literature has emerged. Studies generally focus on adaptation in developing countries or within a sector. For many adaptation options in specific contexts, the investment will be lower than the avoided damages. But global estimates have considerable uncertainty. This is in Article 11 of the convention. Until 2009, three funds existed under the UNFCCC financial mechanism. The Global Environmental Facility administers the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) and the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF). The Adaptation Fund resulted from negotiations during COP15 and COP16 in 2009 and 2010. It has its own Secretariat. Initially, when the Kyoto Protocol was in operation, the Adaptation Fund was financed by a 2% levy on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). At the 2009 Copenhagen Summit, nations committed to the goal of sending $100 billion per year to developing countries for climate change mitigation and adaptation by 2020. The Green Climate Fund was created in 2010 as one of the channels for mobilizing this climate finance. The 2015 Paris conference, COP21, clarified that the $100 billion per year should involve a balanced split between mitigation and adaptation. as of 2020, the promised $100 billion per year had not been fully delivered. Most developing country finance was still targeted towards mitigation. Adaptation received only 21% of the public finance provided in 2020. Global adaptation financing from multilateral development banks exceeded €19 billion in 2021. This implies a rising trend in the financing of adaptation. Multilateral banks made a commitment to increase adaptation financing in a joint declaration on climate change at COP27. This particularly targets low income nations, small island developing states, and underprivileged people. The European Investment Bank has said that it will raise the share it contributes to 75% for projects focusing on climate adaptation. The bank usually contributes up to 50% to a project it participates in. Also in 2022, nations agreed on a proposal to establish a loss and damage fund to support communities in averting, minimizing, and addressing damages and risks where adaptation is not enough or comes too late. The Adaptation Gap Report November 2023, published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), reveals an adaptation finance gap of $194 billion to $366 billion annually. The adaptation needs in developing countries are estimated to range from $215 billion to $387 billion per year, which is 10 18 times the current international public finance flows for adaptation. The report also notes a 15% decline in international public climate finance to developing countries, down to $21.3 billion in 2021. The urgency to increase adaptation finance is highlighted, with an average annual increase of at least 16% required from 2022 to 2025 to align with COP 26 commitments.

Adaptation can occur in anticipation of change or be a response to those changes. For example, artificial snow making in the European Alps responds to current climate trends. The construction of the Confederation Bridge in Canada at a higher elevation takes into account the effect of future sea level rise on ship clearance under the bridge. Effective adaptive policy can be difficult to implement because policymakers are rewarded more for enacting short term change, rather than long term planning. Since the impacts of climate change are generally not seen in the short term, policymakers have less incentive to act. Furthermore, climate change is occurring on a global scale. This requires a global framework for adapting to and combating climate change. The vast majority of climate change adaptation and mitigation policies are being implemented on a more local scale. This is because different regions must adapt differently. National and global policies are often more challenging to enact.

Much adaptation takes place in relation to short term climate variability. But this may cause maladaptation to longer term climate trends. The expansion of irrigation in Egypt into the Western Sinai desert after a period of higher river flows is maladaptation given the longer term projections of drying in the region. Adaptations at one scale can have impacts at another by reducing the adaptive capacity of other people or organizations. This is often the case when broad assessments of the costs and benefits of adaptation are examined at smaller scales. An adaptation may benefit some people, but have a negative effect on others. Agency is a central factor in all other aspects of adaptive capacity and so planners need to pay more attention to this factor.

People have always adapted to climate change. Some community coping strategies already exist. Examples include changing sowing times or adopting new water saving techniques. Current development efforts increasingly focus on community based climate change adaptation. They seek to enhance local knowledge, participation and ownership of adaptation strategies. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report in 2022 put considerable emphasis on adaptation limits. Adaptation is often needed in non market sectors or is focused on public goods that benefit many. So there is a shortage of projects that are attractive to the private sector;
There is a mismatch between the timing of investments needed in the short term and the benefits that may occur in the medium or long term. Future returns are less attractive to investors than short term returns;
There is a lack of information about investment opportunities. This especially concerns uncertainties associated with future impacts and benefits. These are key considerations when returns may accrue over longer timeframes;
There are gaps in human resources and capacities to design adaptation projects and understand financial implications of legal, economic and regulatory frameworks. However, there is considerable innovation in this area. This is increasing the potential for private sector finance to play a larger role in closing the adaptation finance gap.

Trade offs between adaptation and mitigation may occur when climate relevant actions point in different directions. For instance, compact urban development may lead to reduced greenhouse gas emissions from transport and building. On the other hand, it may increase the urban heat island effect, leading to higher temperatures and increasing exposure, making adaptation more challenging.

Sustainable Development Goal 13 aims to strengthen countries' resilience and adaptive capacities to climate related issues. This adjustment includes many areas such as infrastructure, agriculture and education. The Paris Agreement includes several provisions for adaptation. It seeks to promote the idea of global responsibility, improve communication via the adaptation component of the Nationally Determined Contributions, and includes an agreement that developed countries should provide some financial support and technology transfer to promote adaptation in more vulnerable countries. The United Nations estimates Africa would need yearly funding of $1.3 trillion to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals in the region, considering population growth. The International Monetary Fund also estimates that $50 billion may be needed only to cover the expenses of climate adaptation.

When climate change first became prominent on the international political agenda in the early 1990s, talk of adaptation was considered an unwelcome distraction from the need to reach agreement on effective measures for mitigation – which has mainly meant reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases. A few voices had spoken out in favour of adaptation even in the late 20th and early 21st century. In 2009 and 2010, adaptation began to receive more attention during international climate negotiations. This was after limited progress at the Copenhagen Summit had made it clear that achieving international consensus for emission reductions would be more challenging than had been hoped. In 2009, the rich nations of the world committed to providing a total of $100 billion per year to help developing nations fund their climate adaptation projects. This commitment was underscored at the 2010 Cancún Summit , and again at the 2015 Paris Conference. The promise was not fulfilled, but the amount of funding provided by the rich nations for adaptations did increase over the 2010 – 2020 period. Climate change adaptation has tended to be more of a focus for local authorities, while national and international politics has tended to focus on mitigation. There have been exceptions – in countries that feel especially exposed to the effects of climate change, sometimes the focus has been more on adaptation even at national level.