2004 United States presidential election in Nevada

Election in Nevada

The 2004 United States presidential election in Nevada took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose five representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Nevada was won by incumbent President George W. Bush with a 2.6% margin of victory. Prior to the election, news organizations who made predictions were split on whether Nevada was a swing state or leaned towards Bush. Kerry won just one county of the state—Clark County, Nevada's most populous county, and home to Las Vegas. Kerry's second best performance in the state was in Washoe County, Nevada's next most populated county, which he lost with 47% of the vote. The statewide results were very similar to the nationwide vote, making it the bellwether of the 2004 election. Moreover, Nevada at the time had voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1912, except for 1976. Independent and third party candidates collectively won 1.7% of the vote; among this group, Ralph Nader received the greatest share, garnering 0.58%. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time that Nevada was carried by the Republican nominee and the last time that Washoe County voted Republican. Nevada, though still generally considered a swing state, would go on to vote for the Democratic nominee in every subsequent election, albeit sometimes by narrow margins. This is the last time that the presidential candidate who won Nevada carried a majority of county level jurisdictions. This is the most recent election where Nevada voted to the right of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. +SourceRankingD. C. Political ReportAssociated PressCNNCook Political ReportNewsweekNew York TimesRasmussen ReportsResearch 2000Washington PostWashington TimesZogby InternationalWashington Dispatch

Bush trailed in only one pre election poll throughout the general election. By the fall, Bush pulled away and reached 50%. However, in the last week, some voters changed their preferences against Bush, resulting in his polling margin falling slightly. An average of the final three polls before Election Day showed Bush leading 49% to 47%.

Bush raised $2,296,762. Kerry raised $793,504.

Bush visited the state 3 times, while Kerry visited Nevada 6 times. Both of them visited the same places: Las Vegas and Reno. Almost every week, the candidates combined spent over $1 million in advertising.

In 2000, Bush had won Nevada by only 3.54%, despite that it had been Bill Clinton's second closest win in 1996. He also fell slightly short of an outright majority. Hence, he was thought by many observers to be vulnerable in the state, which had voted Republican for six elections in a row before Bill Clinton. In the end, Bush improved his vote share to just over a majority, although his margin narrowed to 2.59%, due to Kerry improving over Gore by a greater amount than Bush improved over his own prior performance. In particular, Bush's vote share actually fell slightly in Washoe County, the state's second largest county and its largest red county in both 2000 and 2004. Washoe County had given the Republican nominee his biggest raw vote margin in the state in every election from 1944 through 2000 save 1964 (when this distinction went to smaller Douglas County) and the three elections of the 1980s (when it went to larger Clark County). In 2004, the 'Cow County' of Elko County displaced Washoe County as the county giving Bush his biggest raw vote margin in Nevada. However, Bush performed strongly in Nevada's Cow Counties (its 14 counties apart from Clark, Washoe, and Carson City), winning over 60% of the vote in Douglas and Lyon Counties, over 70% in Churchill County, and over 75% in Elko County (where he received the highest vote share of any nominee since William Jennings Bryan in 1896). He also did well in Nye County, another of the larger Cow Counties, getting 58.5%, an improvement of 1.8% over four years prior. And he managed to keep Clark County from being a blowout, holding Kerry to a 4.9% margin there. Together with his limiting his backslide in Washoe, this was enough to give Bush another win in Nevada. As of 2020, this is the last time that either Washoe County or Nevada has voted Republican, although it was close in both 2016 and 2020. Additionally 2020 was the first time since 2004 that Nevada voted to the right of the nation. Despite winning all but one of state's counties, Bush performed less consistently in Nevada's congressional districts, where he won two of the three—one of them by just a single percentage point. Despite Bush winning the state, incumbent Senate Minority Whip Harry Reid won reelection.

2004 United States presidential election in NevadaPartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 418,690 50.47% 5 Democratic John Kerry 397,190 47.88% 0 Independent Ralph Nader 4,838 0.58% 0 N/A None of these Candidates 3,688 0.44% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik 3,176 0.38% 0 American Independent Michael Peroutka 1,152 0.14% 0 Green David Cobb 853 0.10% 0 Totals 829,587 100.00% 5 Voter turnout (Voting age population) 50.0%

CountyGeorge W. BushRepublicanJohn KerryDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Carson City13,17157.00%9,44140.86%4942.14%3,73016.14%23,106Churchill7,33571.65%2,70526.42%1971.92%4,63045.23%10,237Clark255,33746.82%281,76751.66%8,2931.52% 26,430 4.84%545,397Douglas15,19263.57%8,27534.63%4311.80%6,91728.94%23,898Elko11,93877.98%3,05019.92%3212.10%8,88858.06%15,309Esmeralda36776.30%9920.58%153.12%26855.72%481Eureka57177.37%14419.51%233.12%42757.86%738Humboldt3,89672.59%1,36125.36%1102.05%2,53547.23%5,367Lander1,60278.03%41420.17%371.80%1,18857.86%2,053Lincoln1,57977.14%41820.42%502.44%1,16156.72%2,047Lyon11,13664.93%5,63732.87%3782.20%5,49932.06%17,151Mineral1,33657.41%93140.01%602.58%40517.40%2,327Nye8,48758.49%5,61638.70%4072.80%2,87119.79%14,510Pershing1,34169.95%53828.06%381.98%80341.89%1,917Storey1,25357.80%87140.18%442.03%38217.62%2,168Washoe81,54551.26%74,84147.05%2,6931.69%6,7044.21%159,079White Pine2,60468.49%1,08228.46%1163.05%1,52240.03%3,802Totals418,69050.47%397,19047.88%13,7071.65%21,5002.59%829,587