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Moving average and polynomial regression method for smoothing data

Local regression or local polynomial regression, also known as moving regression, is a generalization of the moving average and polynomial regression. Its most common methods, initially developed for scatterplot smoothing, are LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) and LOWESS (locally weighted scatterplot smoothing), both pronounced '/l//oʊ//ɛ//s/ LOHess. They are two strongly related non parametric regression methods that combine multiple regression models in a k nearest neighbor based meta model. In some fields, LOESS is known and commonly referred to as Savitzky–Golay filter (proposed 15 years before LOESS). LOESS and LOWESS thus build on "classical" methods, such as linear and nonlinear least squares regression. They address situations in which the classical procedures do not perform well or cannot be effectively applied without undue labor. LOESS combines much of the simplicity of linear least squares regression with the flexibility of nonlinear regression. It does this by fitting simple models to localized subsets of the data to build up a function that describes the deterministic part of the variation in the data, point by point. In fact, one of the chief attractions of this method is that the data analyst is not required to specify a global function of any form to fit a model to the data, only to fit segments of the data. The trade off for these features is increased computation. Because it is so computationally intensive, LOESS would have been practically impossible to use in the era when least squares regression was being developed. Most other modern methods for process modeling are similar to LOESS in this respect. These methods have been consciously designed to use our current computational ability to the fullest possible advantage to achieve goals not easily achieved by traditional approaches. A smooth curve through a set of data points obtained with this statistical technique is called a loess curve, particularly when each smoothed value is given by a weighted quadratic least squares regression over the span of values of the y axis scattergram criterion variable. When each smoothed value is given by a weighted linear least squares regression over the span, this is known as a lowess curve; however, some authorities treat lowess and loess as synonyms. Since a polynomial of degree k requires at least k + 1 points for a fit, the smoothing parameter must be between and 1, with denoting the degree of the local polynomial. is called the smoothing parameter because it controls the flexibility of the LOESS regression function. Large values of produce the smoothest functions that wiggle the least in response to fluctuations in the data. The smaller is, the closer the regression function will conform to the data. Using too small a value of the smoothing parameter is not desirable, however, since the regression function will eventually start to capture the random error in the data.

The local polynomials fit to each subset of the data are almost always of first or second degree; that is, either locally linear (in the straight line sense) or locally quadratic. Using a zero degree polynomial turns LOESS into a weighted moving average. Higher degree polynomials would work in theory, but yield models that are not really in the spirit of LOESS. LOESS is based on the ideas that any function can be well approximated in a small neighborhood by a low order polynomial and that simple models can be fit to data easily. High degree polynomials would tend to overfit the data in each subset and are numerically unstable, making accurate computations difficult.

As discussed above, the biggest advantage LOESS has over many other methods is the process of fitting a model to the sample data does not begin with the specification of a function. Instead the analyst only has to provide a smoothing parameter value and the degree of the local polynomial. In addition, LOESS is very flexible, making it ideal for modeling complex processes for which no theoretical models exist. These two advantages, combined with the simplicity of the method, make LOESS one of the most attractive of the modern regression methods for applications that fit the general framework of least squares regression but which have a complex deterministic structure. Although it is less obvious than for some of the other methods related to linear least squares regression, LOESS also accrues most of the benefits typically shared by those procedures. The most important of those is the theory for computing uncertainties for prediction and calibration. Many other tests and procedures used for validation of least squares models can also be extended to LOESS models .

LOESS makes less efficient use of data than other least squares methods. It requires fairly large, densely sampled data sets in order to produce good models. This is because LOESS relies on the local data structure when performing the local fitting. Thus, LOESS provides less complex data analysis in exchange for greater experimental costs. Another disadvantage of LOESS is the fact that it does not produce a regression function that is easily represented by a mathematical formula. This can make it difficult to transfer the results of an analysis to other people. In order to transfer the regression function to another person, they would need the data set and software for LOESS calculations. In nonlinear regression, on the other hand, it is only necessary to write down a functional form in order to provide estimates of the unknown parameters and the estimated uncertainty. Depending on the application, this could be either a major or a minor drawback to using LOESS. In particular, the simple form of LOESS can not be used for mechanistic modelling where fitted parameters specify particular physical properties of a system. Finally, as discussed above, LOESS is a computationally intensive method (with the exception of evenly spaced data, where the regression can then be phrased as a non causal finite impulse response filter). LOESS is also prone to the effects of outliers in the data set, like other least squares methods. There is an iterative, robust version of LOESS [Cleveland (1979)] that can be used to reduce LOESS' sensitivity to outliers, but too many extreme outliers can still overcome even the robust method.