Дауылды әлсіретуге жасалған талпыныстар: "Stormfury" жобасының тарихы

NOAA weather modification program. Project Stormfury was an attempt to weaken tropical cyclones by flying aircraft into them and seeding with silver iodide. The project was run by the United States Government from 1962 to 1983. The hypothesis was that the silver iodide would cause supercooled water in the storm to freeze, disrupting the inner structure of the hurricane, and this led to seeding several Atlantic hurricanes. However, it was later shown that this hypothesis was incorrect. It was determined that most hurricanes do not contain enough supercooled water for cloud seeding to be effective. Additionally, researchers found that unseeded hurricanes often undergo the same structural changes that were expected from seeded hurricanes. This finding called Stormfury's successes into question, as the changes reported now had a natural explanation. The last experimental flight was flown in 1971, due to a lack of candidate storms and a changeover in NOAA's fleet. Project Stormfury was officially canceled more than a decade after the last modification experiment. Although the project failed to achieve its goal of reducing the destructiveness of hurricanes, its observational data and storm lifecycle research helped improve meteorologists' ability to forecast the movement and intensity of hurricanes.

Cloud seeding was first attempted by Vincent Schaefer and Irving Langmuir. After witnessing the artificial creation of ice crystals, Langmuir became an enthusiastic proponent of weather modification. Schaefer found that when he dumped crushed dry ice into a cloud, precipitation in the form of snow resulted. With regard to hurricanes, it was hypothesized that by seeding the area around the eyewall with silver iodide, latent heat would be released. This would promote the formation of a new eyewall. As this new eyewall was larger than the old eyewall, the winds of the tropical cyclone would be weaker due to a reduced pressure gradient. Even a small reduction in the speed of a hurricane's winds would be beneficial: since the damage potential of a hurricane increased as the square of the wind speed, a slight lowering of wind speed would have a large reduction in destructiveness.

Project Cirrus was the first attempt to modify a hurricane. It was a collaboration of the General Electric Corporation, the US Army Signal Corps, the Office of Naval Research, and the US Air Force. the first attempt to modify a hurricane began on October 13, 1947 on a hurricane that was heading west to east and out to sea. The seeding B 17 flew along the rainbands of the hurricane, and dropped nearly 180 pounds (82 kilograms) of crushed dry ice into the clouds.

The United States Weather Bureau's National Hurricane Research Project, founded in 1955, had as one of its objectives to investigate the scientific validity of hurricane modification methods. To this end, silver iodide dispensers were tested in Hurricane Daisy in August 1958. The flares were deployed outside of the hurricane eyewall, so this was an equipment test rather than a modification experiment. The equipment malfunctioned in all but one of the flights, and no conclusive data was acquired. The next day, more seeding flights were made. This time, the silver iodide did not fall into the eyewall, and no reduction in windspeed was observed. These two results were interpreted as making the experiment a "success". The seedings into Hurricane Esther led to the establishment of Project Stormfury in 1962. Project Stormfury was a joint venture of the United States Department of Commerce and the United States Navy. During the 1962 July–August storm season in Flagstaff, Arizona, the scientists, selected "guinea pig" storms, and seeded them with chemicals. Effects were thoroughly analyzed from the ground and from the air with time lapse motion picture cameras, stereo still cameras, storm radar, lightning detectors, and airborne heat sensors. Among the agents inserted in selected clouds were "condensation nuclei" which temporarily increased the number of water droplets in the cloud, and pulverized dry ice, which turns a portion of the cloud to fine snow crystals that remain aloft. The utilization of these agents facilitated study of a storm's characteristics. There were several guidelines used in selecting which storms to seed. The hurricane had to have a less than 10 percent chance of approaching inhabited land within a day; it had to be within range of the seeding aircraft; and it had to be a fairly intense storm with a well formed eye. No suitable storms formed in the 1962 season. Next year, Stormfury began by conducting experiments on cumulus clouds. From August 17 to 20 of that year, experiments were conducted in 11 clouds, of which six were seeded and five were controls. In five of the six seeded clouds, changes consistent with the working hypothesis were observed. On August 23, 1963, Hurricane Beulah was the site of the next seeding attempt. It had an indistinct eyewall. In addition, mistakes were made, as the seedings of silver iodide were dropped in the wrong places. As a consequence, nothing happened. In the six years after Beulah, no seedings were conducted for several different reasons. In 1964, measurement and observation equipment was not ready to be used. While out to sea in August of the 1965 Atlantic hurricane season, Stormfury meteorologists decided that Hurricane Betsy was a good candidate for seeding. However, the storm immediately swung towards land, and on September 1, the planned flights were canceled. For some reason, the press was not notified that there were no seedings, and several newspapers reported that it had begun. There were no more near seedings until 1969. In the interim, equipment was improved. What once was the primitive method of hand dumping dry ice was replaced with rocket canisters loaded with silver iodide, and then gun like devices mounted on the wings of the airplanes that fired silver iodide into the clouds. Observation equipment was improved. On August 18 and again on August 20, thirteen planes flew out to the storm to monitor and seed it. On the first day, windspeeds fell by 31%. Among other conclusions was the need for frequent seeding at close to hourly intervals. The 1970 and 1971 seasons provided no suitable seeding candidates. Stormfury began to refocus its efforts on understanding, rather than modifying, tropical cyclones. At the same time, the Project's B 17s were nearing the end of their operational lifetimes. At the cost of $30 million (year unknown)

Multiple eyewalls had been detected in very strong hurricanes before, including Typhoon Sarah and Hurricane Donna. Double eyewalls were usually only seen in very intense systems. They had also been observed post seeding in some of the seeded storms. At the time, the only observations of rapid changes in eyewall diameter, other than during presumably successful seedings, occurred during rapid changes in storm intensity. It remained unclear whether the seedings caused the secondary eyewalls or whether it was just part of a natural cycle (because correlation does not imply causation). It was initially thought that eyewall changes similar to those observed in seeded but not unseeded systems provided the evidence that Project Stormfury was a success. But if it was later observed that such eyewall changes were common in unseeded systems as well, such observations would throw doubt on the hypothesis and assumptions driving Project Stormfury. Data and observations did in fact begin to accumulate that debunked Stormfury's working hypothesis. Beginning with Hurricanes Anita and David, flights by hurricane hunting aircraft encountered events similar to what happened in "successfully" seeded storms. Other observations in Hurricanes Anita, David, Frederic, and Allen also discovered that tropical cyclones have very little supercooled water and a great deal of ice crystals. The reason that tropical cyclones have little supercooled water is that the updrafts within such a system are too weak to prevent water from either falling as rain or freezing. As cloud seeding needed supercooled water to function, the lack of supercooled water meant that seeding would have no effect. Those observations called the basis for Project Stormfury into question. In the middle of 1983, Stormfury was finally canceled after the hypothesis guiding its efforts was invalidated.

In the sense of weakening hurricanes to reduce their destructiveness, Project Stormfury was a complete failure because it did not distinguish between natural phenomena in tropical cyclones and the impact of human intervention. In 2000, the HRD employed 30 people and has a budget of roughly $2.6 million each year. However, Project Stormfury had positive results as well. Knowledge gained during flights proved invaluable in debunking its hypotheses. Former Cuban president Fidel Castro alleged that Project Stormfury was an attempt to weaponize hurricanes.