Жұле Чарни: Қазіргі метеорологияның негізін қалаушысы

US meteorologist

Jule Gregory Charney (January 1, 1917 – June 16, 1981) was an American meteorologist who played an important role in developing numerical weather prediction and increasing understanding of the general circulation of the atmosphere by devising a series of increasingly sophisticated mathematical models of the atmosphere. His work was the driving force behind many national and international weather initiatives and programs. Considered the father of modern dynamical meteorology, Charney is credited with having "guided the postwar evolution of modern meteorology more than any other living figure." Charney's work also influenced that of his close colleague Edward Lorenz, who explored the limitations of predictability and was a pioneer of the field of chaos theory.

Charney was born in San Francisco, California, on January 1, 1917, to Jewish Russian immigrants Ely Charney and Stella Littman, tailors in the garment industry. Charney spent most of his early life in California. After a 20 month battle with cancer, he died in Boston at the Sidney Farber Cancer Institute at the age of 64.

Charney earned his undergraduate and graduate degrees at UCLA, culminating in a Ph. D. in physics in 1946. The paper was influential because it emphasized the influence of “long waves” in the upper atmosphere on the behavior of the entire atmosphere rather than the more traditional emphasis on the polar front and also provided a way of analyzing perturbations along these waves that was both physically insightful and mathematically rigorous.

Charney began his career at his alma mater, UCLA, as an instructor in physics and meteorology from 1941 to 1946. In 1946, Charney became a research associate at the University of Chicago under Carl Gustav Rossby, a Swedish born American meteorologist whose theories of large scale air movements helped revolutionize meteorology. This collective work paved the way for the founding of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. In 1954, Charney helped create the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit, a collaboration between the U. S. Weather Bureau, Air Force, and Navy. Charney would later serve as a member of the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences of the National Academy of Sciences and as chairman of the academy's Committee on International Meteorological Cooperation. In those roles, he conceived and helped organize the Global Atmospheric Research Program, considered the most ambitious international effort in weather research ever undertaken.

In 1979, Charney chaired an "ad hoc study group on carbon dioxide and climate" for the National Research Council. The resulting 22 page report, "Carbon dioxide and climate: A scientific assessment," is one of the earliest modern scientific assessments about global warming. Its main conclusion can be found on page 2: "We estimate the most probable global warming for a doubling of CO2 to be near 3°C with a probable error of ± 1.5°C." This estimate of climate sensitivity has been essentially unchanged for over four decades, e. g., the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) says that "equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range 2°C to 4.5°C, with a best estimate value of about 3°C. It is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded, but agreement with observations is not as good for those values." In 2019 climate scientists celebrating the 40th anniversary of the Charney report said "In retrospect, the Charney report seems like the scientific equivalent of the handwriting on the wall Their warning was accurate and remains more relevant than ever."

In February 2018, MIT held a symposium, named MIT on Chaos and Climate, in honor of the 100th anniversary of the birth of Charney and Edward Lorenz. "It's fair to say that Jule Charney turned the mystery of the erratic behavior of the atmosphere into a recognizable–although very, very difficult–problem in fluid physics. I would like, however, to talk today about Jule's more personal and I think equally vital contribution to our field, in terms of the inspiring generosity of spirit he showed that advanced the atmosphere of collaborative collegiality in our field. He set a standard for personal and scientific integrity that I think is often overlooked but of exceptional importance." A video produced for the event highlights the indelible mark made by Charney and Lorenz on MIT and the field of meteorology as a whole.

1937 Elected to Phi Beta Kappa. 1961 Awarded the Symons Gold Medal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 1966 Appointed the first Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at MIT. 1976 Awarded the William Bowie Medal of the American Geophysical Union. The American Meteorological Society annual presents the "Jule G. Charney Award" to individuals "in recognition of highly significant research or development achievement in the atmospheric or hydrologic sciences".