Экономика Эритреи: Рост, Волатильность и Вызовы

The economy of Eritrea has undergone extreme changes after the War of Independence. It experienced considerable growth in recent years, indicated by an improvement in gross domestic product in 2011 of 8.7 percent and in 2012 of 7.5% over 2011, and has a total of $8.090 billion as of 2020. However, worker remittances from abroad are estimated to account for 32 percent of gross domestic product. Eritrea has an extensive amount of resources such as copper, gold, granite, marble, and potash. As of 2012, 20 mining companies had obtained licenses to prospect and exploit mines.

Eritrea's recent growth performance has been marked by significant volatility in part due to its dependence on a predominantly rain fed agriculture sector, accounting for about one third of the economy and which has a significant impact on distribution services which account for around 20% of gross domestic product (GDP), and on a narrow mining sector which also accounts for 20% of the economy. Real GDP growth is estimated to have recovered to around 12% in 2018, while averaging 2.7% during 2015–18 on account of frequent droughts and a decline in mining production. Reported inflation has been negative during 2016–18, following the exchange of currency in circulation in November 2015 that resulted in a monetary contraction. Deflation continued in 2018 as increased trade with Ethiopia resulted in further put downward pressure on prices. In recent years, Eritrea has significantly tightened fiscal policy to reverse the chronic deficits it suffered after the increase in regional insecurity in 1998. In 2018, the fiscal surplus widened to around 11% of GDP. This was largely achieved by a sharp drop in capital spending as well as some revenue measures. However, fiscal pressures, both recurrent and wage related are likely to mount. Short term growth prospects remain challenging given fiscal constraints and limited opportunities under existing restrictions. The recovery in agriculture is expected to slow. The country remains in a difficult macroeconomic situation with an unsustainable debt burden (including arrears to the World Bank) and vulnerable financial and external sectors.

Eritrea's GDP, estimated at $4.037 billion in 2011, was 8.7 percent above the GDP in 2010. The growth was due to increased agricultural output and the expansion of the mining industry along with increasing gold prices. Breakdowns of the Eritrean economy by sector have not been readily available; however, according to some estimates, in 2011 services accounted for 55 percent of the GDP, industry for 34 percent, and agriculture for the remaining 11 percent. The growth of the GDP, however, is compromised by the ongoing and tensions with the country's borders.

In 2004, agriculture employed nearly 80 percent of the population but accounted for only 12.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in Eritrea. The agricultural sector has improved with the use of modern farming equipment and techniques, and dams. Nevertheless, it is compromised by a lack of financial services and investment. Major agricultural products are sorghum, barley, beans, dairy products, lentils, meat, millet, leather, teff, and wheat. The displacement of 1 million Eritreans as a result of the war with Ethiopia, and the widespread presence of land mines have played a role in the declining productivity of the agricultural sector. Almost a quarter of the country's most productive land remains unoccupied because of the lingering effects of the 1998–2000 war with Ethiopia. Forestry is not a significant economic activity in Eritrea. Reliable figures on the extent and value of the fishing industry in Eritrea are difficult to obtain. However, Eritrea's long coastline offers the opportunity for significant expansion of the fishing industry from its current, largely artisanal, stage. Eritrea exports fish and sea cucumbers from the Red Sea to markets in Europe and Asia, and there is hope that the construction of a new, jet capable airport in Massawa, as well as rehabilitation of the port there, may support increased exports of high value seafood. In 2002, exports were about 14,000 tons, but the maximum stable yield is thought to be nearly 80,000 tons. A fish processing plant was built in 1998 that now exports 150 tons of frozen fish every month to markets in Britain, Germany, and the Netherlands. Tensions with Yemen over fishing rights in the Red Sea flared up in 1995 and again in 2002, and Eritrea's difficult relations with other nations could hamper further development of the industry. In 2011, the Australian Chalice mining company applied through a 60/40 joint venture for a mining license for 18 years. Also in 2011, Nevsun Resources completed construction of its Bisha gold mining project. Estimated production was to be 350,000 ounces of gold per year until the gold ore is exhausted, at which point the mine would produce copper and zinc. As of 2012, nine explorer companies operated in Eritrea from Canada (NGEx Resources), Australia (Chalice Gold Mines, South Boulder Mines, Sunridge Gold Corp), China (Sichuan Road and Bridge Group, Zhong Chang Mining Co, China Africa Huakan Investment Co.,Land Energy Group (China) Ltd, Beijing Donia Resources Co. ) , UK (London Africa Ltd, Andiamo Exploration Ltd.), UAE and Barbados.

During the period of federation, industrial capacity largely shifted to Ethiopia, leaving the Eritrean industrial sector with outmoded capital equipment. In 2003 industry accounted for 25.3 percent of gross domestic product. Major products include processed food and dairy products, alcoholic beverages, glass, leather goods, marble, textiles, and salt.

China, India, South Korea, Italy, South Africa, and Germany are aggressively pursuing market opportunities in Eritrea. There is growing interest in U. S. products and services in Eritrea, although U. S. investment in Eritrea is still small.