Экономика Танзании: рост, вызовы и перспективы

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Following the rebasing of the economy in 2014, the GDP increased by a third to $41.33 billion. In 2020, the real GDP of Tanzania grew by 4.8% reaching US$64.4 billion versus US$60.8 billion in 2019. This growth made it the 2nd largest economy in East Africa after Kenya, and the 7th largest in Sub Saharan Africa. It has sustained relatively high economic growth compared to global trends, as is characteristic of African nations. According to World Bank data, the last 5 years have seen the slowest growth since 2000. The medium term outlook is so far positive, with growth projected at 6 percent in 2020/21, which is supported by large infrastructure spending. The World Bank (WB) expects the economic growth of Tanzania to slow to 2.5% in 2020 due to the COVID 19 pandemic which has affected the labor market, the production capacity, and productivity. Tourism has halted, and exports of manufacturing and agricultural goods slumped. On 7 September 2021, the IMF approved US$567.25 million in emergency financial assistance to support Tanzania’s efforts in responding to the COVID 19 pandemic by addressing the urgent health, humanitarian, and economic costs. The IMF projects a GDP growth for Tanzania of +4.0% and +5.1% in 2021 and 2022, and 6.0% in 2026. According to the World Bank, the GDP of Tanzania expanded by 4.6% in 2022, up from 4.3% in 2021. The value of Tanzania's GDP at current prices reached USD 75.5 billion in 2022. The World Bank projects Tanzania's GDP growth to reach 5.1% in 2023.

Significant measures have been taken to liberalize the Tanzanian economy along market lines and encourage both foreign and domestic private investment. Beginning in 1986, the Government of Tanzania embarked on an adjustment program to dismantle the socialist (Ujamaa) economic controls and encourage more active participation of the private sector in the economy. The program included a comprehensive package of policies which reduced the budget deficit and improved monetary control, substantially depreciated the overvalued exchange rate, liberalized the trade regime, removed most price controls, eased restrictions on the marketing of food crops, freed interest rates, and initiated a restructuring of the financial sector. Current GDP per capita of Tanzania grew more than 40 percent between 1998 and 2007. In May 2009, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved an Exogenous Shock Facility for Tanzania to help the country cope with the global economic crisis Tanzania is also engaged in a Policy Support Instrument (PSI) with the IMF, which commenced in February 2007 after Tanzania completed its second three year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), the first having been completed in August 2003. The PRGF was the successor program to the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility, which Tanzania also participated in from 1996 to 1999. The IMF's PSI program provides policy support and signaling to participating low income countries and is intended for countries that have usually achieved a reasonable growth performance, low underlying inflation, an adequate level of official international reserves, and have begun to establish external and net domestic debt sustainability. Tanzania also embarked on a major restructuring of state owned enterprises. The program has so far divested 335 out of some 425 parastatal entities. Overall, real economic growth has averaged about 4 percent a year, much better than the previous 20 years, but not enough to improve the lives of average Tanzanians. Also, the economy remains overwhelmingly donor dependent. Moreover, Tanzania has an external debt of $7.9 billion. The servicing of this debt absorbs about 40 percent of total government expenditures. Tanzania has qualified for debt relief under the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative. Debts worth over $6 billion were canceled following implementation of the Paris Club 7 Agreement.

Industries are a major and growing component of the Tanzanian economy, contributing 22.2 percent of GDP in 2013. All of Tanzania's coal production, which totalled 106,000 short tons in 2012, is used domestically. Nickel reserves amounting to 290,000 tonnes were discovered in October 2012 by Ngwena Company Limited, a subsidiary of the Australian mining company IMX Resources. An initial investment of around USD $38 million has been made since exploration began in 2006, and nickel should start being mined at the end of 2015. Chinese firms have been showing major interest in Tanzania's mineral deposits; an announcement was made in late 2011 of a plan by the Sichuan Hongda Group, to invest about US$3 billion to develop the Mchuchuma coal and Liganga iron ore projects in the south of the country. It was also announced in August 2012 that China National Gold Corp are in talks to purchase mining assets in Tanzania from African Barrick Gold, in a deal that could be worth more than £2 billion stg.

The government owned Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (TANESCO) dominates the electric supply industry in Tanzania. The country generated 6.013 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity in 2013, a 4.2 percent increase over the 5.771 billion kWh generated in 2012. Generation increased by 63 percent between 2005 and 2012; however, only 15 percent of Tanzanians had access to electric power in 2011. Almost 18 percent of the electricity generated in 2012 was lost because of theft and transmission and distribution problems. The electrical supply varies, particularly when droughts disrupt hydropower electric generation; rolling blackouts are implemented as necessary. This pipeline is expected to allow the country to double its electricity generation capacity to 3,000 megawatts by 2016. The government's goal is to increase capacity to at least 10,000 megawatts by 2025.

Tanzania's history of political stability has encouraged foreign direct investment. The government has committed itself to improve the investment climate including redrawing tax codes, floating the exchange rate, licensing foreign banks, and creating an investment promotion centre to cut red tape. Its economy is currently being managed according to the Tanzania Mini Tiger Plan. Tanzania has mineral resources and a largely untapped tourism sector, which might make it a viable market for foreign investment. The stock market capitalisation of listed companies in Tanzania was valued at $588 million in 2005 by the World Bank.

Zanzibar's economy is based primarily on the production of cloves (90% grown on the island of Pemba), the principal foreign exchange earner. Exports have suffered from the downturn in the clove market. The Government of Zanzibar has been more aggressive than its mainland counterpart in instituting economic reforms and has legalized foreign exchange bureaus on the islands. This has loosened up the economy and dramatically increased the availability of consumer commodities. Furthermore, with external funding, the government plans to make the port of Zanzibar a free port. Rehabilitation of current port facilities and plans to extend these facilities will be the precursor to the free port. The island's manufacturing sector is limited mainly to import substitution industries, such as cigarettes, shoes, and process agricultural products. In 1992, the government designated two export producing zones and encouraged the development of offshore financial services. Zanzibar still imports much of its staple requirements, petroleum products, and manufactured articles.