Австралияның 39-шы Парламенті сайлауы 1998

Election for the 39th Parliament of Australia

The 1998 Australian federal election was held to determine the members of the 39th Parliament of Australia. It was held on 3 October 1998. All 148 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76 seat Senate were up for election. The incumbent centre right Liberal/National Coalition government led by Prime Minister John Howard of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Tim Fischer of the National Party defeated the centre left Australian Labor Party opposition led by Opposition Leader Kim Beazley, despite losing the nationwide popular and two party preferred vote. However, the Australian Labor Party gained seats from the previous election. Entering parliament at this election were future Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, future Liberal deputy leader and future Minister of Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop, future Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan and future Speaker Anna Burke.

The election returned the Member of the House of Representatives for its 1998–2001 term and half of Australia's senators, who then served in the 1999–2002 Senate. Despite winning almost 51 percent of the two party preferred vote and regaining much of what it had lost in its severe defeat of two years earlier, Labor fell short of forming government. The government was re elected with 49.02% of the two party preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party, the largest difference of six election results where the winner did not gain a two party preferred majority, since 2PP results first estimated from 1937. The election on 3 October 1998 was held six months earlier than required by the Constitution. Prime Minister John Howard made the announcement following the launch of the coalition's Goods and Services Tax (GST) policy launch and a five week advertising campaign. The ensuing election was almost entirely dominated by the proposed 10% GST and proposed income tax cuts. In reaction to One Nation's policies, the other significant parties all agreed to preference against One Nation. One Nation lost its lone house seat when founder and leader Pauline Hanson lost on preferences to Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson in the Queensland electorate of Blair. In Queensland, One Nation polled 14.83% of the Senate vote, sufficient to elect one senator without the need for preferences. The seat initially went to Heather Hill, but she was subsequently disqualified under Section 44 of the Constitution, and replaced by Len Harris. The election eve Newspoll reported Labor on a 53 percent two party preferred vote. On election night of 3 October, the exit poll showed Labor on a 53 percent two party preferred vote. Labor made the single biggest gain by an Opposition party following an election defeat; the Coalition's majority was cut from 40 to 12. It was only when the first returns trickled in from Western Australia that the Coalition was assured of another term. The swing across all states would have normally been sufficient for a change of government, but the uneven nature of the swing left Kim Beazley eight seats short of becoming Prime Minister. The uneven nature of the swing saw Labor getting huge swings in seats that they held prior to the election but not enough in seats needed to gain government. The election for the division of Newcastle was deferred as the candidate died on 1 October, two days before the federal election. A supplementary election was held on 21 November, with Labor winning and holding the seat.

The Nationals had candidates in 13 seats where three cornered contests existed, with 88.89% of preferences favouring the Liberal Party. One Nation contested 135 electorates with preferences slightly favouring the Liberal/National Coalition (53.66%)
The Democrats contested 144 electorates with preferences slightly favouring Labor (56.72%)
The Greens contested 120 electorates with preferences strongly favouring Labor (73.28%)

Seat Pre 1998 Swing Post 1998 Party Member Margin Margin Member Party Bass, Tas  Liberal Warwick Smith 4.57 4.63 0.06 Michelle O'Byrne Labor  Bendigo, Vic  Liberal Bruce Reid 0.88 4.35 3.47 Steve Gibbons Labor  Bowman, Qld  Liberal Andrea West 0.89 4.18 3.29 Con Sciacca Labor  Braddon, Tas  Liberal Chris Miles 5.69 10.02 4.33 Sid Sidebottom Labor  Canning, WA  Liberal Ricky Johnston 1.64 5.16 3.52 Jane Gerick Labor  Capricornia, Qld  National Paul Marek 3.46 8.75 5.29 Kirsten Livermore Labor  Chisholm, Vic  Liberal Michael Wooldridge 2.60 4.67 2.07 Anna Burke Labor  Cowan, WA  Liberal Richard Evans 4.06 7.62 3.56 Graham Edwards Labor  Curtin, WA  Independent Allan Rocher 7.28 N/A 13.28 Julie Bishop Liberal  Dickson, Qld  Liberal Tony Smith 3.90 4.02 0.12 Cheryl Kernot Labor  Griffith, Qld  Liberal Graeme McDougall 1.50 3.93 2.43 Kevin Rudd Labor  Hume, NSW  National John Sharp 4.35 3.71 8.06 Alby Schultz Liberal  Kingston, SA  Liberal Susan Jeanes 2.01 2.48 0.47 David Cox Labor  Kalgoorlie, WA  Independent Graeme Campbell 10.35 N/A 2.10 Barry Haase Liberal  Lilley, Qld  Liberal Elizabeth Grace 0.80 3.93 3.13 Wayne Swan Labor  Lowe, NSW  Liberal Paul Zammit 2.46 7.09 4.63 John Murphy Labor  McMillan, Vic  Liberal Russell Broadbent 2.07 2.64 0.57 Christian Zahra Labor  Moore, WA  Independent Paul Filing 13.28 N/A 4.13 Mal Washer Liberal  Northern Territory, NT  Country Liberal Nick Dondas 0.37 0.94 0.57 Warren Snowdon Labor  Oxley, Qld  One Nation Pauline Hanson 0.35 7.85 8.20 Bernie Ripoll Labor  Paterson, NSW  Liberal Bob Baldwin 0.43 1.65 1.22 Bob Horne Labor  Stirling, WA  Liberal Eoin Cameron 3.22 4.26 1.04 Jann McFarlane Labor  Swan, WA  Liberal Don Randall 3.63 6.33 2.70 Kim Wilkie Labor