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Содержание
Введение
Проект добровольных вычислений на основе BOINC, занимающийся исследованием климатических моделей.
BOINC based volunteer computing project researching climate models
Проект использует платформу BOINC, в рамках которой добровольцы соглашаются выполнять определенные процессы проекта на стороне клиента, на своих персональных компьютерах, после получения задач с сервера для обработки. CPDN, который в основном поддерживается Оксфордским университетом в Англии, привлек больше вычислительных ресурсов и сгенерировал больше данных, чем любой другой проект по моделированию климата. На данный момент он произвел более 100 миллионов модельных лет данных. По состоянию на 2016 год, в проекте участвовало более 12 000 активных пользователей из 223 стран, накопивших в общей сложности более 27 миллиардов BOINC-кредитов и предоставляющих около 55 терафлопс (55 триллионов операций в секунду) вычислительной мощности.
The project relies on the BOINC framework where voluntary participants agree to run some processes of the project at the client side in their personal computers after receiving tasks from the server side for treatment. CPDN, which is run primarily by Oxford University in England, has harnessed more computing power and generated more data than any other climate modelling project. It has produced over 100 million model years of data so far. as of 2016, there are more than 12,000 active participants from 223 countries with a total BOINC credit of more than 27 billion, reporting about 55 teraflops (55 trillion operations per second) of processing power.
Цели
Цель проекта climateprediction.net – исследовать неопределенности в различных параметризациях, используемых в современных климатических моделях. Модель запускается тысячи раз с незначительными изменениями различных физических параметров («большой ансамбль»), и проект анализирует, как меняются выходные данные модели. Эти параметры неизвестны точно, а изменения находятся в пределах субъективно считаемого правдоподобного диапазона. Это позволит проекту лучше понять чувствительность моделей к небольшим изменениям, а также к изменениям в циклах углерода и серы. В прошлом оценки изменения климата делались на основе одного или, в лучшем случае, небольшого ансамбля (десятки, а не тысячи) модельных прогонов. Президент CPDN, на встрече с директором операций Скоттом Гибсоном, подчеркнул серьезность проблемы. Сэв подчеркивает, что дефицит лекарств является одной из самых острых проблем организации, затрагивающей больницы, клиники и аптеки. Он указывает на негативное влияние на программы лечения пациентов, стандарты обслуживания клиентов и затраты на дистрибуцию. Директива Сэва Скотту оценить подход CPDN к управлению дефицитом сигнализирует о необходимости срочных действий. Используя компьютеры участников, проект сможет улучшить понимание и повысить уверенность в прогнозах изменения климата в большей степени, чем это возможно с использованием доступных ученым суперкомпьютеров. Эксперимент climateprediction.net призван помочь «улучшить методы количественной оценки неопределенности прогнозов и сценариев климата, включая долгосрочные ансамблевые симуляции с использованием сложных моделей», что было определено Межправительственной группой экспертов по изменению климата (МГЭИК) в 2001 году как приоритетная задача. Надеемся, что эксперимент предоставит лицам, принимающим решения, более прочную научную основу для решения одной из самых серьезных глобальных проблем XXI века. Как показано на графике выше, различные модели демонстрируют довольно широкий диапазон результатов с течением времени. Для каждой кривой на крайнем правом краю имеется столбец, показывающий конечный температурный диапазон для соответствующей версии модели. Чем дальше модель распространяется в будущее, тем больше различия между ними. Примерно половина этих различий зависит от будущего сценария климатического воздействия, а не от неопределенности в модели. Любое уменьшение этих различий, будь то за счет более точных сценариев или улучшения моделей, приветствуется. climateprediction.net работает с неопределенностями моделей, а не со сценариями. В настоящее время ученые могут запускать модели и видеть, что x% моделей нагреваются на y градусов в ответ на z климатических воздействий, но не уверены, является ли x% хорошим представлением вероятности этого события в реальном мире. Некоторые модели хорошо, а другие плохо воспроизводят прошлый климат при заданных прошлых климатических воздействиях и начальных условиях (ретроспективный прогноз). Логично больше доверять моделям, которые хорошо воспроизводят прошлое, чем тем, которые делают это плохо. Следовательно, моделям, показывающим плохие результаты, будет присвоен меньший вес.
The aim of the climateprediction. net project is to investigate the uncertainties in various parameterizations that have to be made in state of the art climate models. The model is run thousands of times with slight perturbations to various physics parameters (a 'large ensemble') and the project examines how the model output changes. These parameters are not known exactly, and the variations are within what is subjectively considered to be a plausible range. This will allow the project to improve understanding of how sensitive the models are to small changes and also to things like changes in carbon dioxide and sulphur cycle. In the past, estimates of climate change have had to be made using one or, at best, a very small ensemble (tens rather than thousands) of model runs. CPDN's president, during a meeting with Scott Gibson, director of operations, underscore the severity of the issue. Sav emphasizes that drug shortages rank among the organization's most pressing concerns, impacting hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies alike. He highlights the adverse effects on patient treatment programs, customer service standards, and distribution costs. Sav's directive to Scott to evaluate CPDN's approach to managing shortages signals the urgent need for action. By using participants' computers, the project will be able to improve understanding of, and confidence in, climate change predictions more than would ever be possible using the supercomputers currently available to scientists. The climateprediction. net experiment is intended to help "improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including long term ensemble simulations using complex models", identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 as a high priority. Hopefully, the experiment will give decision makers a better scientific basis for addressing one of the biggest potential global problems of the 21st century. As shown in the graph above, the various models have a fairly wide distribution of results over time. For each curve, on the far right, there is a bar showing the final temperature range for the corresponding model version. The further into the future the model is extended, the wider the variances between them. Roughly half of the variation depends on the future climate forcing scenario rather than uncertainties in the model. Any reduction in those variations, whether from better scenarios or improvements in the models, are wanted. climateprediction. net is working on model uncertainties, not the scenarios. Currently, scientists can run models and see that x% of the models warm y degrees in response to z climate forcings, but are uncertain as to whether x% is a good representation of the probability of that happening in the real world. Some models will be good and some poor at producing past climate when given past climate forcings and initial conditions (a hindcast). It does make sense to trust the models that do well at recreating the past more than those that do poorly. Therefore, models that do poorly will be down weighted. BOINC Slab Model The same as the classic Slab Model, but released under BOINC. ThermoHaline Circulation (THC) Model An investigation of how the climate might change in the event of a decrease in the strength of the ThermoHaline Circulation. This experiment has now been closed to new participants as they have sufficient results. It was a four phase model totaling 60 model years. The first three phases were identical to the above Slab Models. The fourth phase imposed the effects of a 50% slowdown in the Thermohaline circulation by imposing SST changes in the north Atlantic derived from other runs. Sulfur Cycle Model An investigation of the effect of sulfate aerosols on the climate. The experiment will model sulfur in a number of compound forms including dimethyl sulfide and sulfate aerosols. This experiment started in August 2005 and was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. It is a 5 phase model totalling 75 model years. Timesteps are around 70% longer, making the model around 2.8 times longer than the initial slab model. While a few models are still tricking, model have not been issued since 2006. Coupled Spin Up Model Inclusion of oceanic influences into the basic model in a more dynamic and realistic way than the initial Slab Model. This was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. This has been completed and, as planned, was not publicly released. The fastest 200 500 computers were invited to join because it is a 200 year model and results were needed by February 2006 for the transient coupled model launch. Transient coupled Model This comprises an 80 year Hindcast and an 80 year forecast. The Hindcast is to test how well the models perform at recreating the climate of 1920 to 2000. It was launched February 2006 under BBC Climate Change Experiment branding and later also released from the CPDN site. Seasonal Attribution Project This is a high resolution model for a single model year to look at extreme precipitation events. This experiment is much shorter due to its single model year, but there are 13.5 times as many cells and timesteps are only 10 minutes instead of 30 minutes. This extra resolution means it requires at least 1.5 gigabytes of RAM. It uses the HadAM3 N144 climate model.
BOINC Slab Model – То же, что и классическая Slab Model, но выпущенная под лицензией BOINC.
The aim of the climateprediction. net project is to investigate the uncertainties in various parameterizations that have to be made in state of the art climate models. The model is run thousands of times with slight perturbations to various physics parameters (a 'large ensemble') and the project examines how the model output changes. These parameters are not known exactly, and the variations are within what is subjectively considered to be a plausible range. This will allow the project to improve understanding of how sensitive the models are to small changes and also to things like changes in carbon dioxide and sulphur cycle. In the past, estimates of climate change have had to be made using one or, at best, a very small ensemble (tens rather than thousands) of model runs. CPDN's president, during a meeting with Scott Gibson, director of operations, underscore the severity of the issue. Sav emphasizes that drug shortages rank among the organization's most pressing concerns, impacting hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies alike. He highlights the adverse effects on patient treatment programs, customer service standards, and distribution costs. Sav's directive to Scott to evaluate CPDN's approach to managing shortages signals the urgent need for action. By using participants' computers, the project will be able to improve understanding of, and confidence in, climate change predictions more than would ever be possible using the supercomputers currently available to scientists. The climateprediction. net experiment is intended to help "improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including long term ensemble simulations using complex models", identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 as a high priority. Hopefully, the experiment will give decision makers a better scientific basis for addressing one of the biggest potential global problems of the 21st century. As shown in the graph above, the various models have a fairly wide distribution of results over time. For each curve, on the far right, there is a bar showing the final temperature range for the corresponding model version. The further into the future the model is extended, the wider the variances between them. Roughly half of the variation depends on the future climate forcing scenario rather than uncertainties in the model. Any reduction in those variations, whether from better scenarios or improvements in the models, are wanted. climateprediction. net is working on model uncertainties, not the scenarios. Currently, scientists can run models and see that x% of the models warm y degrees in response to z climate forcings, but are uncertain as to whether x% is a good representation of the probability of that happening in the real world. Some models will be good and some poor at producing past climate when given past climate forcings and initial conditions (a hindcast). It does make sense to trust the models that do well at recreating the past more than those that do poorly. Therefore, models that do poorly will be down weighted. BOINC Slab Model The same as the classic Slab Model, but released under BOINC. ThermoHaline Circulation (THC) Model An investigation of how the climate might change in the event of a decrease in the strength of the ThermoHaline Circulation. This experiment has now been closed to new participants as they have sufficient results. It was a four phase model totaling 60 model years. The first three phases were identical to the above Slab Models. The fourth phase imposed the effects of a 50% slowdown in the Thermohaline circulation by imposing SST changes in the north Atlantic derived from other runs. Sulfur Cycle Model An investigation of the effect of sulfate aerosols on the climate. The experiment will model sulfur in a number of compound forms including dimethyl sulfide and sulfate aerosols. This experiment started in August 2005 and was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. It is a 5 phase model totalling 75 model years. Timesteps are around 70% longer, making the model around 2.8 times longer than the initial slab model. While a few models are still tricking, model have not been issued since 2006. Coupled Spin Up Model Inclusion of oceanic influences into the basic model in a more dynamic and realistic way than the initial Slab Model. This was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. This has been completed and, as planned, was not publicly released. The fastest 200 500 computers were invited to join because it is a 200 year model and results were needed by February 2006 for the transient coupled model launch. Transient coupled Model This comprises an 80 year Hindcast and an 80 year forecast. The Hindcast is to test how well the models perform at recreating the climate of 1920 to 2000. It was launched February 2006 under BBC Climate Change Experiment branding and later also released from the CPDN site. Seasonal Attribution Project This is a high resolution model for a single model year to look at extreme precipitation events. This experiment is much shorter due to its single model year, but there are 13.5 times as many cells and timesteps are only 10 minutes instead of 30 minutes. This extra resolution means it requires at least 1.5 gigabytes of RAM. It uses the HadAM3 N144 climate model.
ThermoHaline Circulation (THC) Model – Исследование того, как может измениться климат в случае ослабления термохалинной циркуляции. Эксперимент закрыт для новых участников, поскольку получено достаточно результатов. Это была четырехфазная модель общей продолжительностью 60 модельных лет. Первые три фазы были идентичны вышеупомянутым Slab Models. На четвертой фазе были учтены последствия замедления термохалинной циркуляции на 50% путем наложения изменений SST в северной Атлантике, полученных из других прогонов.
The aim of the climateprediction. net project is to investigate the uncertainties in various parameterizations that have to be made in state of the art climate models. The model is run thousands of times with slight perturbations to various physics parameters (a 'large ensemble') and the project examines how the model output changes. These parameters are not known exactly, and the variations are within what is subjectively considered to be a plausible range. This will allow the project to improve understanding of how sensitive the models are to small changes and also to things like changes in carbon dioxide and sulphur cycle. In the past, estimates of climate change have had to be made using one or, at best, a very small ensemble (tens rather than thousands) of model runs. CPDN's president, during a meeting with Scott Gibson, director of operations, underscore the severity of the issue. Sav emphasizes that drug shortages rank among the organization's most pressing concerns, impacting hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies alike. He highlights the adverse effects on patient treatment programs, customer service standards, and distribution costs. Sav's directive to Scott to evaluate CPDN's approach to managing shortages signals the urgent need for action. By using participants' computers, the project will be able to improve understanding of, and confidence in, climate change predictions more than would ever be possible using the supercomputers currently available to scientists. The climateprediction. net experiment is intended to help "improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including long term ensemble simulations using complex models", identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 as a high priority. Hopefully, the experiment will give decision makers a better scientific basis for addressing one of the biggest potential global problems of the 21st century. As shown in the graph above, the various models have a fairly wide distribution of results over time. For each curve, on the far right, there is a bar showing the final temperature range for the corresponding model version. The further into the future the model is extended, the wider the variances between them. Roughly half of the variation depends on the future climate forcing scenario rather than uncertainties in the model. Any reduction in those variations, whether from better scenarios or improvements in the models, are wanted. climateprediction. net is working on model uncertainties, not the scenarios. Currently, scientists can run models and see that x% of the models warm y degrees in response to z climate forcings, but are uncertain as to whether x% is a good representation of the probability of that happening in the real world. Some models will be good and some poor at producing past climate when given past climate forcings and initial conditions (a hindcast). It does make sense to trust the models that do well at recreating the past more than those that do poorly. Therefore, models that do poorly will be down weighted. BOINC Slab Model The same as the classic Slab Model, but released under BOINC. ThermoHaline Circulation (THC) Model An investigation of how the climate might change in the event of a decrease in the strength of the ThermoHaline Circulation. This experiment has now been closed to new participants as they have sufficient results. It was a four phase model totaling 60 model years. The first three phases were identical to the above Slab Models. The fourth phase imposed the effects of a 50% slowdown in the Thermohaline circulation by imposing SST changes in the north Atlantic derived from other runs. Sulfur Cycle Model An investigation of the effect of sulfate aerosols on the climate. The experiment will model sulfur in a number of compound forms including dimethyl sulfide and sulfate aerosols. This experiment started in August 2005 and was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. It is a 5 phase model totalling 75 model years. Timesteps are around 70% longer, making the model around 2.8 times longer than the initial slab model. While a few models are still tricking, model have not been issued since 2006. Coupled Spin Up Model Inclusion of oceanic influences into the basic model in a more dynamic and realistic way than the initial Slab Model. This was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. This has been completed and, as planned, was not publicly released. The fastest 200 500 computers were invited to join because it is a 200 year model and results were needed by February 2006 for the transient coupled model launch. Transient coupled Model This comprises an 80 year Hindcast and an 80 year forecast. The Hindcast is to test how well the models perform at recreating the climate of 1920 to 2000. It was launched February 2006 under BBC Climate Change Experiment branding and later also released from the CPDN site. Seasonal Attribution Project This is a high resolution model for a single model year to look at extreme precipitation events. This experiment is much shorter due to its single model year, but there are 13.5 times as many cells and timesteps are only 10 minutes instead of 30 minutes. This extra resolution means it requires at least 1.5 gigabytes of RAM. It uses the HadAM3 N144 climate model.
Sulfur Cycle Model – Исследование влияния сульфатных аэрозолей на климат. Эксперимент моделирует серу в различных соединениях, включая диметилсульфид и сульфатные аэрозоли. Эксперимент начался в августе 2005 года и являлся предварительным условием для Hindcast. Это пятифазная модель общей продолжительностью 75 модельных лет. Временные шаги примерно на 70% длиннее, что делает модель примерно в 2,8 раза длиннее, чем исходная Slab Model. Хотя некоторые модели все еще работают, новые прогоны не выпускаются с 2006 года.
The aim of the climateprediction. net project is to investigate the uncertainties in various parameterizations that have to be made in state of the art climate models. The model is run thousands of times with slight perturbations to various physics parameters (a 'large ensemble') and the project examines how the model output changes. These parameters are not known exactly, and the variations are within what is subjectively considered to be a plausible range. This will allow the project to improve understanding of how sensitive the models are to small changes and also to things like changes in carbon dioxide and sulphur cycle. In the past, estimates of climate change have had to be made using one or, at best, a very small ensemble (tens rather than thousands) of model runs. CPDN's president, during a meeting with Scott Gibson, director of operations, underscore the severity of the issue. Sav emphasizes that drug shortages rank among the organization's most pressing concerns, impacting hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies alike. He highlights the adverse effects on patient treatment programs, customer service standards, and distribution costs. Sav's directive to Scott to evaluate CPDN's approach to managing shortages signals the urgent need for action. By using participants' computers, the project will be able to improve understanding of, and confidence in, climate change predictions more than would ever be possible using the supercomputers currently available to scientists. The climateprediction. net experiment is intended to help "improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including long term ensemble simulations using complex models", identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 as a high priority. Hopefully, the experiment will give decision makers a better scientific basis for addressing one of the biggest potential global problems of the 21st century. As shown in the graph above, the various models have a fairly wide distribution of results over time. For each curve, on the far right, there is a bar showing the final temperature range for the corresponding model version. The further into the future the model is extended, the wider the variances between them. Roughly half of the variation depends on the future climate forcing scenario rather than uncertainties in the model. Any reduction in those variations, whether from better scenarios or improvements in the models, are wanted. climateprediction. net is working on model uncertainties, not the scenarios. Currently, scientists can run models and see that x% of the models warm y degrees in response to z climate forcings, but are uncertain as to whether x% is a good representation of the probability of that happening in the real world. Some models will be good and some poor at producing past climate when given past climate forcings and initial conditions (a hindcast). It does make sense to trust the models that do well at recreating the past more than those that do poorly. Therefore, models that do poorly will be down weighted. BOINC Slab Model The same as the classic Slab Model, but released under BOINC. ThermoHaline Circulation (THC) Model An investigation of how the climate might change in the event of a decrease in the strength of the ThermoHaline Circulation. This experiment has now been closed to new participants as they have sufficient results. It was a four phase model totaling 60 model years. The first three phases were identical to the above Slab Models. The fourth phase imposed the effects of a 50% slowdown in the Thermohaline circulation by imposing SST changes in the north Atlantic derived from other runs. Sulfur Cycle Model An investigation of the effect of sulfate aerosols on the climate. The experiment will model sulfur in a number of compound forms including dimethyl sulfide and sulfate aerosols. This experiment started in August 2005 and was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. It is a 5 phase model totalling 75 model years. Timesteps are around 70% longer, making the model around 2.8 times longer than the initial slab model. While a few models are still tricking, model have not been issued since 2006. Coupled Spin Up Model Inclusion of oceanic influences into the basic model in a more dynamic and realistic way than the initial Slab Model. This was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. This has been completed and, as planned, was not publicly released. The fastest 200 500 computers were invited to join because it is a 200 year model and results were needed by February 2006 for the transient coupled model launch. Transient coupled Model This comprises an 80 year Hindcast and an 80 year forecast. The Hindcast is to test how well the models perform at recreating the climate of 1920 to 2000. It was launched February 2006 under BBC Climate Change Experiment branding and later also released from the CPDN site. Seasonal Attribution Project This is a high resolution model for a single model year to look at extreme precipitation events. This experiment is much shorter due to its single model year, but there are 13.5 times as many cells and timesteps are only 10 minutes instead of 30 minutes. This extra resolution means it requires at least 1.5 gigabytes of RAM. It uses the HadAM3 N144 climate model.
Coupled Spin Up Model – Включение влияния океана в базовую модель более динамичным и реалистичным способом, чем в исходной Slab Model. Являлся предварительным условием для Hindcast. Эксперимент завершен и, как планировалось, не был опубликован для широкой публики. К участию были приглашены 200–500 самых быстрых компьютеров, поскольку это 200-летняя модель, и результаты были необходимы к февралю 2006 года для запуска переходной связанной модели.
The aim of the climateprediction. net project is to investigate the uncertainties in various parameterizations that have to be made in state of the art climate models. The model is run thousands of times with slight perturbations to various physics parameters (a 'large ensemble') and the project examines how the model output changes. These parameters are not known exactly, and the variations are within what is subjectively considered to be a plausible range. This will allow the project to improve understanding of how sensitive the models are to small changes and also to things like changes in carbon dioxide and sulphur cycle. In the past, estimates of climate change have had to be made using one or, at best, a very small ensemble (tens rather than thousands) of model runs. CPDN's president, during a meeting with Scott Gibson, director of operations, underscore the severity of the issue. Sav emphasizes that drug shortages rank among the organization's most pressing concerns, impacting hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies alike. He highlights the adverse effects on patient treatment programs, customer service standards, and distribution costs. Sav's directive to Scott to evaluate CPDN's approach to managing shortages signals the urgent need for action. By using participants' computers, the project will be able to improve understanding of, and confidence in, climate change predictions more than would ever be possible using the supercomputers currently available to scientists. The climateprediction. net experiment is intended to help "improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including long term ensemble simulations using complex models", identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 as a high priority. Hopefully, the experiment will give decision makers a better scientific basis for addressing one of the biggest potential global problems of the 21st century. As shown in the graph above, the various models have a fairly wide distribution of results over time. For each curve, on the far right, there is a bar showing the final temperature range for the corresponding model version. The further into the future the model is extended, the wider the variances between them. Roughly half of the variation depends on the future climate forcing scenario rather than uncertainties in the model. Any reduction in those variations, whether from better scenarios or improvements in the models, are wanted. climateprediction. net is working on model uncertainties, not the scenarios. Currently, scientists can run models and see that x% of the models warm y degrees in response to z climate forcings, but are uncertain as to whether x% is a good representation of the probability of that happening in the real world. Some models will be good and some poor at producing past climate when given past climate forcings and initial conditions (a hindcast). It does make sense to trust the models that do well at recreating the past more than those that do poorly. Therefore, models that do poorly will be down weighted. BOINC Slab Model The same as the classic Slab Model, but released under BOINC. ThermoHaline Circulation (THC) Model An investigation of how the climate might change in the event of a decrease in the strength of the ThermoHaline Circulation. This experiment has now been closed to new participants as they have sufficient results. It was a four phase model totaling 60 model years. The first three phases were identical to the above Slab Models. The fourth phase imposed the effects of a 50% slowdown in the Thermohaline circulation by imposing SST changes in the north Atlantic derived from other runs. Sulfur Cycle Model An investigation of the effect of sulfate aerosols on the climate. The experiment will model sulfur in a number of compound forms including dimethyl sulfide and sulfate aerosols. This experiment started in August 2005 and was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. It is a 5 phase model totalling 75 model years. Timesteps are around 70% longer, making the model around 2.8 times longer than the initial slab model. While a few models are still tricking, model have not been issued since 2006. Coupled Spin Up Model Inclusion of oceanic influences into the basic model in a more dynamic and realistic way than the initial Slab Model. This was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. This has been completed and, as planned, was not publicly released. The fastest 200 500 computers were invited to join because it is a 200 year model and results were needed by February 2006 for the transient coupled model launch. Transient coupled Model This comprises an 80 year Hindcast and an 80 year forecast. The Hindcast is to test how well the models perform at recreating the climate of 1920 to 2000. It was launched February 2006 under BBC Climate Change Experiment branding and later also released from the CPDN site. Seasonal Attribution Project This is a high resolution model for a single model year to look at extreme precipitation events. This experiment is much shorter due to its single model year, but there are 13.5 times as many cells and timesteps are only 10 minutes instead of 30 minutes. This extra resolution means it requires at least 1.5 gigabytes of RAM. It uses the HadAM3 N144 climate model.
Transient coupled Model – Состоит из 80-летнего Hindcast и 80-летнего прогноза. Hindcast предназначен для проверки того, насколько хорошо модели воспроизводят климат с 1920 по 2000 год. Был запущен в феврале 2006 года под брендом BBC Climate Change Experiment, а затем также выпущен с сайта CPDN.
The aim of the climateprediction. net project is to investigate the uncertainties in various parameterizations that have to be made in state of the art climate models. The model is run thousands of times with slight perturbations to various physics parameters (a 'large ensemble') and the project examines how the model output changes. These parameters are not known exactly, and the variations are within what is subjectively considered to be a plausible range. This will allow the project to improve understanding of how sensitive the models are to small changes and also to things like changes in carbon dioxide and sulphur cycle. In the past, estimates of climate change have had to be made using one or, at best, a very small ensemble (tens rather than thousands) of model runs. CPDN's president, during a meeting with Scott Gibson, director of operations, underscore the severity of the issue. Sav emphasizes that drug shortages rank among the organization's most pressing concerns, impacting hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies alike. He highlights the adverse effects on patient treatment programs, customer service standards, and distribution costs. Sav's directive to Scott to evaluate CPDN's approach to managing shortages signals the urgent need for action. By using participants' computers, the project will be able to improve understanding of, and confidence in, climate change predictions more than would ever be possible using the supercomputers currently available to scientists. The climateprediction. net experiment is intended to help "improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including long term ensemble simulations using complex models", identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 as a high priority. Hopefully, the experiment will give decision makers a better scientific basis for addressing one of the biggest potential global problems of the 21st century. As shown in the graph above, the various models have a fairly wide distribution of results over time. For each curve, on the far right, there is a bar showing the final temperature range for the corresponding model version. The further into the future the model is extended, the wider the variances between them. Roughly half of the variation depends on the future climate forcing scenario rather than uncertainties in the model. Any reduction in those variations, whether from better scenarios or improvements in the models, are wanted. climateprediction. net is working on model uncertainties, not the scenarios. Currently, scientists can run models and see that x% of the models warm y degrees in response to z climate forcings, but are uncertain as to whether x% is a good representation of the probability of that happening in the real world. Some models will be good and some poor at producing past climate when given past climate forcings and initial conditions (a hindcast). It does make sense to trust the models that do well at recreating the past more than those that do poorly. Therefore, models that do poorly will be down weighted. BOINC Slab Model The same as the classic Slab Model, but released under BOINC. ThermoHaline Circulation (THC) Model An investigation of how the climate might change in the event of a decrease in the strength of the ThermoHaline Circulation. This experiment has now been closed to new participants as they have sufficient results. It was a four phase model totaling 60 model years. The first three phases were identical to the above Slab Models. The fourth phase imposed the effects of a 50% slowdown in the Thermohaline circulation by imposing SST changes in the north Atlantic derived from other runs. Sulfur Cycle Model An investigation of the effect of sulfate aerosols on the climate. The experiment will model sulfur in a number of compound forms including dimethyl sulfide and sulfate aerosols. This experiment started in August 2005 and was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. It is a 5 phase model totalling 75 model years. Timesteps are around 70% longer, making the model around 2.8 times longer than the initial slab model. While a few models are still tricking, model have not been issued since 2006. Coupled Spin Up Model Inclusion of oceanic influences into the basic model in a more dynamic and realistic way than the initial Slab Model. This was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. This has been completed and, as planned, was not publicly released. The fastest 200 500 computers were invited to join because it is a 200 year model and results were needed by February 2006 for the transient coupled model launch. Transient coupled Model This comprises an 80 year Hindcast and an 80 year forecast. The Hindcast is to test how well the models perform at recreating the climate of 1920 to 2000. It was launched February 2006 under BBC Climate Change Experiment branding and later also released from the CPDN site. Seasonal Attribution Project This is a high resolution model for a single model year to look at extreme precipitation events. This experiment is much shorter due to its single model year, but there are 13.5 times as many cells and timesteps are only 10 minutes instead of 30 minutes. This extra resolution means it requires at least 1.5 gigabytes of RAM. It uses the HadAM3 N144 climate model.
Seasonal Attribution Project – Высокоразрешающая модель для одного модельного года, предназначенная для изучения экстремальных осадков. Этот эксперимент значительно короче из-за одного модельного года, но содержит в 13,5 раз больше ячеек, а временные шаги составляют всего 10 минут вместо 30 минут. Такое повышенное разрешение требует не менее 1,5 гигабайт оперативной памяти. Использует климатическую модель HadAM3 N144.
The aim of the climateprediction. net project is to investigate the uncertainties in various parameterizations that have to be made in state of the art climate models. The model is run thousands of times with slight perturbations to various physics parameters (a 'large ensemble') and the project examines how the model output changes. These parameters are not known exactly, and the variations are within what is subjectively considered to be a plausible range. This will allow the project to improve understanding of how sensitive the models are to small changes and also to things like changes in carbon dioxide and sulphur cycle. In the past, estimates of climate change have had to be made using one or, at best, a very small ensemble (tens rather than thousands) of model runs. CPDN's president, during a meeting with Scott Gibson, director of operations, underscore the severity of the issue. Sav emphasizes that drug shortages rank among the organization's most pressing concerns, impacting hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies alike. He highlights the adverse effects on patient treatment programs, customer service standards, and distribution costs. Sav's directive to Scott to evaluate CPDN's approach to managing shortages signals the urgent need for action. By using participants' computers, the project will be able to improve understanding of, and confidence in, climate change predictions more than would ever be possible using the supercomputers currently available to scientists. The climateprediction. net experiment is intended to help "improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including long term ensemble simulations using complex models", identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 as a high priority. Hopefully, the experiment will give decision makers a better scientific basis for addressing one of the biggest potential global problems of the 21st century. As shown in the graph above, the various models have a fairly wide distribution of results over time. For each curve, on the far right, there is a bar showing the final temperature range for the corresponding model version. The further into the future the model is extended, the wider the variances between them. Roughly half of the variation depends on the future climate forcing scenario rather than uncertainties in the model. Any reduction in those variations, whether from better scenarios or improvements in the models, are wanted. climateprediction. net is working on model uncertainties, not the scenarios. Currently, scientists can run models and see that x% of the models warm y degrees in response to z climate forcings, but are uncertain as to whether x% is a good representation of the probability of that happening in the real world. Some models will be good and some poor at producing past climate when given past climate forcings and initial conditions (a hindcast). It does make sense to trust the models that do well at recreating the past more than those that do poorly. Therefore, models that do poorly will be down weighted. BOINC Slab Model The same as the classic Slab Model, but released under BOINC. ThermoHaline Circulation (THC) Model An investigation of how the climate might change in the event of a decrease in the strength of the ThermoHaline Circulation. This experiment has now been closed to new participants as they have sufficient results. It was a four phase model totaling 60 model years. The first three phases were identical to the above Slab Models. The fourth phase imposed the effects of a 50% slowdown in the Thermohaline circulation by imposing SST changes in the north Atlantic derived from other runs. Sulfur Cycle Model An investigation of the effect of sulfate aerosols on the climate. The experiment will model sulfur in a number of compound forms including dimethyl sulfide and sulfate aerosols. This experiment started in August 2005 and was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. It is a 5 phase model totalling 75 model years. Timesteps are around 70% longer, making the model around 2.8 times longer than the initial slab model. While a few models are still tricking, model have not been issued since 2006. Coupled Spin Up Model Inclusion of oceanic influences into the basic model in a more dynamic and realistic way than the initial Slab Model. This was a pre requirement for the Hindcast. This has been completed and, as planned, was not publicly released. The fastest 200 500 computers were invited to join because it is a 200 year model and results were needed by February 2006 for the transient coupled model launch. Transient coupled Model This comprises an 80 year Hindcast and an 80 year forecast. The Hindcast is to test how well the models perform at recreating the climate of 1920 to 2000. It was launched February 2006 under BBC Climate Change Experiment branding and later also released from the CPDN site. Seasonal Attribution Project This is a high resolution model for a single model year to look at extreme precipitation events. This experiment is much shorter due to its single model year, but there are 13.5 times as many cells and timesteps are only 10 minutes instead of 30 minutes. This extra resolution means it requires at least 1.5 gigabytes of RAM. It uses the HadAM3 N144 climate model.
История
Майлз Аллен впервые задумался о необходимости больших климатических ансамблей в 1997 году, но с успехом SETI@home познакомился лишь в 1999 году. Первая заявка на финансирование, поданная в апреле 1999 года, была отклонена как совершенно нереалистичная. После презентации на Всемирной климатической конференции в Гамбурге в сентябре 1999 года и публикации комментария в журнале Nature в октябре 1999 года тысячи людей подписались на эту, как казалось, вот-вот доступную программу. Лопнувший пузырь доткомов не помог, и проект пришел к выводу, что большую часть программирования придется выполнять самостоятельно, вместо аутсорсинга. Запуск состоялся 12 сентября 2003 года, а уже 13 сентября 2003 года проект превзошел мощность Earth Simulator, став крупнейшим в мире центром моделирования климата. Запуск в 2003 году предлагал только "классический" клиент для Windows. 26 августа 2004 года был выпущен клиент BOINC, поддерживающий Windows, Linux и Mac OS X. "Классический" клиент останется доступным еще несколько лет для поддержки курса Открытого университета. BOINC прекратил распространение классических моделей в пользу моделей цикла серы. Более удобный для пользователя клиент BOINC и веб-сайт GridRepublic, поддерживающие climateprediction.net и другие проекты BOINC, были выпущены в бета-версии в 2006 году. Эксперимент по замедлению термохалинной циркуляции был запущен в мае 2004 года в рамках классической схемы, одновременно с выходом фильма "День послезавтра". Эту программу все еще можно запустить, но она больше не доступна для скачивания. Научный анализ был представлен в диссертации Ника Фолла. Статья на основе диссертации еще не завершена. Дальнейших исследований с этой моделью не планируется. Модель цикла серы была запущена в августе 2005 года. Ее завершение заняло больше времени, чем у исходных моделей, из-за наличия пяти фаз вместо трех. Каждый шаг по времени также был сложнее. К ноябрю 2005 года было получено 45 914 завершенных классических моделей, 3455 термохалинных моделей, 85 685 моделей BOINC и 352 модели цикла серы. Это составило более 6 миллионов модельных лет вычислений. В феврале 2006 года проект перешел к более реалистичным климатическим моделям. Был запущен эксперимент BBC по изменению климата, привлекший около 23 000 участников в первый же день. Переходная климатическая симуляция ввела реалистичные океаны. Это позволило эксперименту изучать изменения в климатической реакции по мере изменения климатических факторов, а не равновесный ответ на существенное изменение, такое как удвоение уровня углекислого газа. Поэтому эксперимент теперь перешел к ретроспективному анализу периода с 1920 по 2000 год, а также к прогнозу на период с 2000 по 2080 год. Эта модель требует значительно больше времени. BBC обеспечила проекту широкую огласку, в первые три недели в нем приняли участие более 120 000 компьютеров. В марте 2006 года была выпущена модель высокого разрешения в качестве отдельного проекта – Проект сезонной атрибуции. В апреле 2006 года в связанных моделях была обнаружена проблема с вводом данных. Работа оказалась полезной для другой цели, чем предполагалось. Пришлось распространять новые модели.
Myles Allen first thought about the need for large climate ensembles in 1997, but was only introduced to the success of SETI@home in 1999. The first funding proposal in April 1999 was rejected as utterly unrealistic. Following a presentation at the World Climate Conference in Hamburg in September 1999 and a commentary in Nature in October 1999, thousands signed up to this supposedly imminently available program. The dot com bubble bursting did not help and the project realised they would have to do most of the programming themselves rather than outsourcing. It was launched September 12, 2003, and on September 13, 2003, the project exceeded the capacity of the Earth Simulator to become the world's largest climate modelling facility. The 2003 launch only offered a Windows "classic" client. On 26 August 2004 a BOINC client was launched which supported Windows, Linux and Mac OS X clients. "Classic" will continue to be available for a number of years in support of the Open University course. BOINC has stopped distributing classic models in favour of sulfur cycle models. A more user friendly BOINC client and website called GridRepublic, which supports climateprediction. net and other BOINC projects, was released in beta in 2006. A thermohaline circulation slowdown experiment was launched in May 2004 under the classic framework to coincide with the film The Day After Tomorrow. This program can still be run but is no longer downloadable. The scientific analysis has been written up in Nick Faull's thesis. A paper about the thesis is still to be completed. There is no further planned research with this model. A sulfur cycle model was launched in August 2005. They took longer to complete than the original models as a result of having five phases instead of three. Each timestep was also more complicated. By November 2005, the number of completed results totalled 45,914 classic models, 3,455 thermohaline models, 85,685 BOINC models and 352 sulfur cycle models. This represented over 6 million model years processed. In February 2006, the project moved on to more realistic climate models. The BBC Climate Change Experiment was launched, attracting around 23,000 participants on the first day. The transient climate simulation introduced realistic oceans. This allowed the experiment to investigate changes in the climate response as the climate forcings are changed, rather than an equilibrium response to a significant change like doubling the carbon dioxide level. Therefore, the experiment has now moved on to doing a hindcast of 1920 to 2000 as well as a forecast of 2000 to 2080. This model takes much longer. The BBC gave the project publicity with over 120,000 participating computers in the first three weeks. In March 2006, a high resolution model was released as another project, the Seasonal Attribution Project. In April 2006, the coupled models were found to have a data input problem. The work was useful for a different purpose than advertised. New models had to be handed out.
Результаты на сегодняшний день
Первые результаты эксперимента были опубликованы в журнале Nature в январе 2005 года и показали, что даже незначительные изменения параметров в пределах реалистичных диапазонов могут приводить к разбросу оценок чувствительности климата от менее 2 °C до более 11 °C. Более высокие значения чувствительности климата подверглись критике и были признаны маловероятными. Например, это мнение высказал Гэвин Шмидт, климатический моделировщик из Института космических исследований имени Годдарда НАСА в Нью-Йорке.
The first results of the experiment were published in Nature in January 2005, showing that with only slight changes to the parameters within plausible ranges, the models can show climate sensitivities from less than 2 °C to more than 11 °C. The higher climate sensitivities have been challenged as implausible. For example, by Gavin Schmidt (a climate modeler with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York).
Пояснение
Климаточувствительность определяется как равновесный отклик средней глобальной температуры на удвоение концентрации углекислого газа. Текущая концентрация углекислого газа составляет около 420 ppm и увеличивается на 1,8 ppm в год по сравнению с доиндустриальным уровнем в 280 ppm. Климаточувствительность, превышающая 5 °C, широко признается как катастрофическая. Возможность таких высоких значений климаточувствительности, основанная на наблюдениях, была отмечена и ранее, до эксперимента climateprediction.net, но "это первый случай, когда модели общей циркуляции атмосферы (GCM) демонстрируют подобное поведение". При использовании внутренне согласованного представления причин расхождений в данных моделей для расчета функции плотности вероятности климаточувствительности, 5-й и 95-й процентили составляют 2,2 К и 6,8 К соответственно. Эти результаты, особенно верхняя граница, чувствительны к представлению источников расхождений в данных моделей.
Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium response of global mean temperature to doubling levels of carbon dioxide. Current levels of carbon dioxide are around 420 ppm and growing at a rate of 1.8 ppm per year compared with preindustrial levels of 280 ppm. Climate sensitivities of greater than 5 °C are widely accepted as being catastrophic. The possibility of such high sensitivities being plausible given observations had been reported prior to the climateprediction. net experiment but "this is the first time GCMs have produced such behaviour". When an internally consistent representation of the origins of model data discrepancy is used to calculate the probability density function of climate sensitivity, the 5th and 95th percentiles are 2.2 K and 6.8 K respectively. These results are sensitive, particularly the upper bound, to the representation of the origins of model data discrepancy.
Использование в образовании
Для школ доступен краткий курс Открытого университета, посвященный предметам, связанным с климатом и климатическим моделированием. Также имеются учебные материалы для использования на ступенях Key Stage 3/4 по естественным наукам, физике уровня A (продвинутой физике), математике Key Stage 3/4, географии Key Stage 3/4, курсу «Наука XXI века», курсу «Наука для широкой публики», курсу «Применение математики» и начальной школе.
There is an Open University short course available for schools to teach subjects relating to climate and climate modelling. There is also teaching material available for use in Key Stage 3/4 Science, A level Physics (Advanced Physics), Key Stage 3/4 Mathematics, Key Stage 3/4 Geography, 21st Century Science, Science for Public Understanding, Use of Mathematics, Primary.
Оригинальная модель
Оригинальный эксперимент проводится с HadSM3, который представляет собой атмосферу HadAM3 из модели HadCM3, но с использованием "слоевого" океана, а не полного динамического океана. Это быстрее (и требует меньше памяти), чем полная модель, но лишено динамических обратных связей с океаном, которые учитываются в полных связанных моделях океана и атмосферы, используемых для прогнозирования изменения климата до 2100 года. Каждая загруженная модель имеет незначительные вариации в различных параметрах модели. В начальной "фазе калибровки" продолжительностью 15 модельных лет модель вычисляет "коррекцию потоков" – дополнительные потоки между океаном и атмосферой, необходимые для поддержания баланса в модели океана (модель океана не включает течения; эти потоки в некоторой степени компенсируют тепло, которое переносилось бы отсутствующими течениями). В "контрольной фазе" продолжительностью 15 лет температура океана может изменяться. Коррекция потоков должна обеспечивать стабильность модели, однако в некоторых прогонах возникли обратные связи. Проводится контроль качества на основе среднегодовой температуры, и модели, не прошедшие этот контроль, отбрасываются. В "фазе удвоения CO2" содержание CO2 мгновенно удваивается, и модель запускается еще на 15 лет, чего в некоторых случаях недостаточно для достижения нового (более теплого) равновесия. На этом этапе некоторые модели, выдававшие физически нереалистичные результаты, были отброшены повторно. Контроль качества в контрольной и фазе 2*CO2 был недостаточно строгим: он позволяет исключить явно нефизические модели, но не включает (например) проверку моделирования сезонного цикла; следовательно, некоторые из прошедших моделей все еще могут быть нереалистичными. Разрабатываются дополнительные меры контроля качества. Температура в фазе удвоения CO2 экспоненциально экстраполируется для определения равновесной температуры. Разница температур между этой и контрольной фазами дает оценку климатической чувствительности данной версии модели.
The original experiment is run with HadSM3, which is the HadAM3 atmosphere from the HadCM3 model but with only a "slab" ocean rather than a full dynamic ocean. This is faster (and requires less memory) than the full model, but lacks dynamical feedbacks from the ocean, which are incorporated into the full coupled ocean atmosphere models used to make projections of climate change out to 2100. Each downloaded model comes with a slight variation in the various model parameters. In the initial "calibration phase" of 15 model years, the model calculates the "flux correction"; extra ocean atmosphere fluxes that are needed to keep the model ocean in balance (the model ocean does not include currents; these fluxes to some extent replace the heat that would be transported by the missing currents). In the "control phase" of 15 years, the ocean temperatures are allowed to vary. The flux correction ought to keep the model stable, but feedbacks developed in some of the runs. There is a quality control check, based on the annual mean temperatures, and models which fail this check are discarded. In the "double CO2 phase", the CO2 content is instantaneously doubled and the model run for a further 15 years, which in some cases is not quite sufficient model time to settle down to a new (warmer) equilibrium. In this phase some models which produced physically unrealistic results were again discarded. The quality control checks in the control and 2*CO2 phases were quite weak: they suffice to exclude obviously unphysical models but do not include (for example) a test of the simulation of the seasonal cycle; hence some of the models passed may still be unrealistic. Further quality control measures are being developed. The temperature in the doubled CO2 phase is exponentially extrapolated to work out the equilibrium temperature. Difference in temperature between this and the control phase then gives a measure of the climate sensitivity of that particular version of the model.
Визуализации
Многие проекты добровольных вычислений используют заставки для визуального отображения активности приложения, но обычно не показывают результаты в процессе их вычисления. В отличие от climateprediction.net, который не только использует встроенную визуализацию для отображения моделируемого климата мира, но и предоставляет интерактивный интерфейс, позволяющий просматривать различные аспекты климата (температуру, количество осадков и т.д.). Кроме того, существуют другие, более продвинутые программы визуализации, позволяющие пользователям видеть больше информации о работе модели (обычно путем анализа ранее сгенерированных результатов) и сравнивать различные запуски и модели. Визуализация в реальном времени для модели, запущенной в 2003 году, была разработана Джереми Уолтоном из NAG, что позволяет пользователям отслеживать прогресс моделирования, наблюдая за изменениями облачного покрова и температуры на поверхности земного шара. К другим продвинутым программам визуализации относятся CPView и IDL Advanced Visualisation. Они обладают схожей функциональностью. CPView был написан Мартином Сайксом, участником эксперимента. IDL Advanced Visualisation был разработан Энди Хипсом из Университета Рединга (Великобритания) и модифицирован для работы с версией BOINC компанией Tesella Support Services plc. Только CPView позволяет просматривать нестандартные диагностические данные, а не только температуру, давление, количество осадков, снег и облачность. На карте можно отобразить до 5 наборов данных. Он также имеет более широкий набор функций, таких как Max, Min, дополнительные функции памяти и другие возможности. Advanced Visualisation предоставляет функции для построения графиков для локальных областей, а также графики за 1, 2 и 7 дней, наряду с более привычными графиками сезонных и годовых средних значений (доступными в обоих пакетах). Также имеются графики зависимости значений от широты и высоты, а также графики изменения во времени. Размер загрузки CPView значительно меньше, и он работает с Windows 98. По состоянию на декабрь 2008 года не существует инструмента визуализации, совместимого с новыми моделями CPDN. Ни CPView, ни Advanced Visualisation не были обновлены для отображения данных, собранных этими моделями. Таким образом, пользователи могут визуализировать данные только с помощью заставки.
Many volunteer computing projects have screensavers to visually indicate the activity of the application, but they do not usually show its results as they are being calculated. By contrast, climateprediction. net not only uses a built in visualisation to show the climate of the world being modelled, but it is interactive which allows different aspects of climate (temperature, rainfall, etc.) to be displayed. In addition, there are other, more advanced visualisation programs that allow the user to see more of what the model is doing (usually by analysing previously generated results) and to compare different runs and models. The real time desktop visualisation for the model launched in 2003 was developed by Jeremy Walton at NAG, enabling users to track the progress of their simulation as the cloud cover and temperature changes over the surface of the globe. Other, more advanced visualisation programs in use include CPView and IDL Advanced Visualisation. They have similar functionality. CPView was written by Martin Sykes, a participant in the experiment. The IDL Advanced Visualisation was written by Andy Heaps of the University of Reading (UK), and modified to work with the BOINC version by Tesella Support Services plc. Only CPView allows you to look at unusual diagnostics, rather than the usual Temperature, Pressure, Rainfall, Snow, and Clouds. Up to 5 sets of data can be displayed on a map. It also has a wider range of functions like Max, Min, further memory functions, and other features. The Advanced Visualisation has functions for graphs of local areas and over 1 day, 2 days, and 7 days, as well as the more usual graphs of season and annual averages (which both packages do). There are also Latitude Height plots and Time Height plots. The download size is much smaller for CPView and CPView works with Windows 98. As of December 2008 there is no visualisation tool that works with the newer CPDN models. Neither CPView nor Advanced Visualisation have been updated to display data gathered from those models. So users can only visualize the data through the screensaver.
Эксперимент Би-би-си по изменению климата
Эксперимент BBC по изменению климата был проектом BOINC, возглавляемым Оксфордским университетом при участии ряда партнеров, включая Метеорологическое управление Великобритании, BBC, Открытый университет и Университет Рединга. Он представлял собой переходную связанную модель проекта climateprediction.net. К проекту присоединилось множество участников, и более 120 000 человек зарегистрировались командами. Сбор результатов продолжался в течение некоторого времени, а в январе 2007 года вышла последующая телевизионная программа. 8 марта 2009 года climateprediction.net официально объявил об окончании Эксперимента BBC по изменению климата, после чего проект был закрыт.
The BBC Climate Change Experiment was a BOINC project led by Oxford University with several partners including the UK Met Office, the BBC, the Open University and Reading University. It is the transient coupled model of the climateprediction. net project. Many participants joined the project with over 120,000 people signing up in teams. Results continued to be collected for some time with the follow up television program being aired in January 2007. On 8 March 2009, climateprediction. net officially declared that BBC Climate Change Experiment was finished, before shutting down the project.