Введение
Американский писатель, футуролог и бизнесмен
Элвин Юджин Тоффлер (4 октября 1928 года – 27 июня 2016 года) – американский писатель, футуролог и бизнесмен, известный своими работами, посвященными современным технологиям, включая цифровую и коммуникационную революции, с акцентом на их влияние на культуры всего мира. Он считается одним из выдающихся футурологов мира. Тоффлер был помощником редактора журнала Fortune. В своих ранних работах он сосредоточился на технологиях и их воздействии, которое он назвал «информационной перегрузкой». В 1970 году его первая крупная книга о будущем, «Шок будущего», стала мировым бестселлером, разойдясь тиражом более 6 миллионов экземпляров. Вместе с женой Хайди Тоффлер (1929–2019), которая сотрудничала с ним в большинстве его произведений, он перешел к изучению реакции общества на изменения, представив еще один бестселлер, «Третья волна», в 1980 году. В этой книге он предвидел такие технологические достижения, как клонирование, персональные компьютеры, Интернет, кабельное телевидение и мобильная связь. Его более поздние работы, в частности бестселлер «Сдвиг власти» (1990), были посвящены растущей мощи военной техники XXI века и распространению новых технологий. Он основал Toffler Associates – консалтинговую компанию в сфере управления, а также был приглашенным научным сотрудником Фонда Рассела Сейджа, приглашенным профессором Корнелльского университета, преподавателем Новой школы социальных исследований, корреспондентом Белого дома и бизнес-консультантом. Идеи и труды Тоффлера оказали значительное влияние на мировоззрение бизнес- и политических лидеров по всему миру, включая китайского политика Чжао Цзыяна и основателя AOL Стива Кейса.
Ранние годы
Элвин Тоффлер родился 4 октября 1928 года в Нью-Йорке и вырос в Бруклине. Он был сыном Розы (Альбаум) и Сэма Тоффлера, механика, польских евреев, эмигрировавших в Америку. У него была младшая сестра. В их первых рабочих местах на фабрике Хайди стала профсоюзным организатором на алюминиевой литейной фабрике, где она работала. Элвин стал слесарем-механиком и сварщиком. Вечером Элвин писал стихи и прозу, но обнаружил, что не преуспел ни в одном из этих занятий. В 1959 году они вернулись в Нью-Йорк, когда журнал Fortune пригласил Элвина стать его обозревателем по вопросам труда, а затем писать о бизнесе и менеджменте. Тоффлера наняла IBM для проведения исследований и написания статьи о социальном и организационном влиянии компьютеров, что привело к его знакомству с первыми компьютерными "гуру" и исследователями и сторонниками искусственного интеллекта. Xerox пригласила его написать о своей исследовательской лаборатории, а AT&T консультировалась с ним по вопросам стратегии. Эта работа в AT&T привела к исследованию в области телекоммуникаций, в котором высшему руководству компании было рекомендовано разделить компанию более чем за десятилетие до того, как правительство вынудило AT&T к разделению. В середине 1960-х годов Тоффлеры начали пятилетнее исследование, которое впоследствии стало книгой «Шок будущего», опубликованной в 1970 году. Книга не перестает издаваться и была переведена на десятки языков. Он утверждал, что одним из побочных эффектов цифровой эпохи стала «информационная перегрузка» – еще один термин, который он ввел. В 1990 году он написал «Сдвиг власти», также при помощи своей жены Хайди.
Toffler stated many of his ideas during an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation in 1998. His opinions about the future of education, many of which were in Future Shock, have often been quoted. An often misattributed quote, however, is that of psychologist Herbert Gerjuoy: "Tomorrow's illiterate will not be the man who can't read; he will be the man who has not learned how to learn." Early in his career, after traveling to other countries, he became aware of the new and myriad inputs that visitors received from these other cultures. He explained during an interview that some visitors would become "truly disoriented and upset" by the strange environment, which he described as a reaction to culture shock. From that issue, he foresaw another problem for the future, when a culturally "new environment comes to you and comes to you rapidly." That kind of sudden cultural change within one's own country, which he felt many would not understand, would lead to a similar reaction, one of "future shock", which he wrote about in his book by that title. In The Third Wave, Toffler describes three types of societies, based on the concept of "waves"—each wave pushes the older societies and cultures aside. He describes the "First Wave" as the society after agrarian revolution and replaced the first hunter gatherer cultures. The "Second Wave," he labels society during the Industrial Revolution (ca. late 17th century through the mid 20th century). That period saw the increase of urban industrial populations which had undermined the traditional nuclear family, and initiated a factory like education system, and the growth of the corporation. Toffler said:
blockquote|The Second Wave Society is industrial and based on mass production, mass distribution, mass consumption, mass education, mass media, mass recreation, mass entertainment, and weapons of mass destruction. You combine those things with standardization, centralization, concentration, and synchronization, and you wind up with a style of organization we call bureaucracy. The Tofflers claimed to have predicted a number of geopolitical events, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the future economic growth in the Asia Pacific region. In 1980, Ted Turner founded CNN, which he said was inspired by Toffler's forecasting the end of the dominance of the three main television networks. Turner's company, Turner Broadcasting, published Toffler's Creating a New Civilization in 1995. Shortly after the book was released, the former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev hosted the Global Governance Conference in San Francisco with the theme, Toward a New Civilization, which was attended by dozens of world figures, including the Tofflers, George H. W. Bush, Margaret Thatcher, Carl Sagan, Abba Eban and Turner with his then wife, actress Jane Fonda. Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim was influenced by his works, and became a friend of the writer. Since the 1960s, people had tried to make sense out of the effect of new technologies and social change, a problem which made Toffler's writings widely influential beyond the confines of scientific, economic, and public policy. His works and ideas have been subject to various criticisms, usually with the same argumentation used against futurology: that foreseeing the future is nigh impossible. Musician Curtis Mayfield released a disco song called "Future Shock," later covered in an electro version by Herbie Hancock. Toffler has also been described in a Financial Times interview as the "world's most famous futurologist". In 2006, the People's Daily classed him among the 50 foreigners who shaped modern China, He convened conferences to discuss The Third Wave in the early 1980s, and in 1985 the book was the No. 2 best seller in China. Newt Gingrich became close to the Tofflers in the 1970s and said The Third Wave had immensely influenced his own thinking and was "one of the great seminal works of our time."
Тоффлер изложил многие свои идеи во время интервью с Австралийской вещательной корпорацией в 1998 году. Его взгляды на будущее образования, многие из которых были представлены в «Шоке будущего», часто цитируются. Однако часто ошибочно приписывают цитату психолога Герберта Герджуя: «Неграмотным завтра будет не тот, кто не умеет читать, а тот, кто не научился учиться». В начале своей карьеры, после путешествий по другим странам, он осознал новые и многочисленные впечатления, которые посетители получали от этих других культур. В интервью он объяснил, что некоторые посетители становились «по-настоящему дезориентированными и расстроенными» странной обстановкой, которую он описал как реакцию на культурный шок. Исходя из этого, он предвидел еще одну проблему в будущем, когда «новая культура придет к вам и придет быстро». Такой внезапный культурный сдвиг в собственной стране, который, по его мнению, многие не поймут, приведет к аналогичной реакции – «шоку будущего», о котором он писал в своей книге с таким названием. В книге «Третья волна» Тоффлер описывает три типа обществ, основанных на концепции «волн» – каждая волна вытесняет более старые общества и культуры. Он описывает «Первую волну» как общество после аграрной революции, заменившее первые культуры охотников-собирателей. «Вторую волну» он определяет как общество во время промышленной революции (ок. конец XVII века – середина XX века). В этот период наблюдался рост городского промышленного населения, который подорвал традиционную нуклеарную семью, и возникла фабрично-подобная система образования, а также рост корпораций. Тоффлер сказал:
Toffler stated many of his ideas during an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation in 1998. His opinions about the future of education, many of which were in Future Shock, have often been quoted. An often misattributed quote, however, is that of psychologist Herbert Gerjuoy: "Tomorrow's illiterate will not be the man who can't read; he will be the man who has not learned how to learn." Early in his career, after traveling to other countries, he became aware of the new and myriad inputs that visitors received from these other cultures. He explained during an interview that some visitors would become "truly disoriented and upset" by the strange environment, which he described as a reaction to culture shock. From that issue, he foresaw another problem for the future, when a culturally "new environment comes to you and comes to you rapidly." That kind of sudden cultural change within one's own country, which he felt many would not understand, would lead to a similar reaction, one of "future shock", which he wrote about in his book by that title. In The Third Wave, Toffler describes three types of societies, based on the concept of "waves"—each wave pushes the older societies and cultures aside. He describes the "First Wave" as the society after agrarian revolution and replaced the first hunter gatherer cultures. The "Second Wave," he labels society during the Industrial Revolution (ca. late 17th century through the mid 20th century). That period saw the increase of urban industrial populations which had undermined the traditional nuclear family, and initiated a factory like education system, and the growth of the corporation. Toffler said:
blockquote|The Second Wave Society is industrial and based on mass production, mass distribution, mass consumption, mass education, mass media, mass recreation, mass entertainment, and weapons of mass destruction. You combine those things with standardization, centralization, concentration, and synchronization, and you wind up with a style of organization we call bureaucracy. The Tofflers claimed to have predicted a number of geopolitical events, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the future economic growth in the Asia Pacific region. In 1980, Ted Turner founded CNN, which he said was inspired by Toffler's forecasting the end of the dominance of the three main television networks. Turner's company, Turner Broadcasting, published Toffler's Creating a New Civilization in 1995. Shortly after the book was released, the former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev hosted the Global Governance Conference in San Francisco with the theme, Toward a New Civilization, which was attended by dozens of world figures, including the Tofflers, George H. W. Bush, Margaret Thatcher, Carl Sagan, Abba Eban and Turner with his then wife, actress Jane Fonda. Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim was influenced by his works, and became a friend of the writer. Since the 1960s, people had tried to make sense out of the effect of new technologies and social change, a problem which made Toffler's writings widely influential beyond the confines of scientific, economic, and public policy. His works and ideas have been subject to various criticisms, usually with the same argumentation used against futurology: that foreseeing the future is nigh impossible. Musician Curtis Mayfield released a disco song called "Future Shock," later covered in an electro version by Herbie Hancock. Toffler has also been described in a Financial Times interview as the "world's most famous futurologist". In 2006, the People's Daily classed him among the 50 foreigners who shaped modern China, He convened conferences to discuss The Third Wave in the early 1980s, and in 1985 the book was the No. 2 best seller in China. Newt Gingrich became close to the Tofflers in the 1970s and said The Third Wave had immensely influenced his own thinking and was "one of the great seminal works of our time."
> Общество Второй волны – это индустриальное общество, основанное на массовом производстве, массовом распространении, массовом потреблении, массовом образовании, массовых СМИ, массовом отдыхе, массовых развлечениях и оружии массового уничтожения. Сочетая все это со стандартизацией, централизацией, концентрацией и синхронизацией, мы получаем стиль организации, который мы называем бюрократией.
Toffler stated many of his ideas during an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation in 1998. His opinions about the future of education, many of which were in Future Shock, have often been quoted. An often misattributed quote, however, is that of psychologist Herbert Gerjuoy: "Tomorrow's illiterate will not be the man who can't read; he will be the man who has not learned how to learn." Early in his career, after traveling to other countries, he became aware of the new and myriad inputs that visitors received from these other cultures. He explained during an interview that some visitors would become "truly disoriented and upset" by the strange environment, which he described as a reaction to culture shock. From that issue, he foresaw another problem for the future, when a culturally "new environment comes to you and comes to you rapidly." That kind of sudden cultural change within one's own country, which he felt many would not understand, would lead to a similar reaction, one of "future shock", which he wrote about in his book by that title. In The Third Wave, Toffler describes three types of societies, based on the concept of "waves"—each wave pushes the older societies and cultures aside. He describes the "First Wave" as the society after agrarian revolution and replaced the first hunter gatherer cultures. The "Second Wave," he labels society during the Industrial Revolution (ca. late 17th century through the mid 20th century). That period saw the increase of urban industrial populations which had undermined the traditional nuclear family, and initiated a factory like education system, and the growth of the corporation. Toffler said:
blockquote|The Second Wave Society is industrial and based on mass production, mass distribution, mass consumption, mass education, mass media, mass recreation, mass entertainment, and weapons of mass destruction. You combine those things with standardization, centralization, concentration, and synchronization, and you wind up with a style of organization we call bureaucracy. The Tofflers claimed to have predicted a number of geopolitical events, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the future economic growth in the Asia Pacific region. In 1980, Ted Turner founded CNN, which he said was inspired by Toffler's forecasting the end of the dominance of the three main television networks. Turner's company, Turner Broadcasting, published Toffler's Creating a New Civilization in 1995. Shortly after the book was released, the former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev hosted the Global Governance Conference in San Francisco with the theme, Toward a New Civilization, which was attended by dozens of world figures, including the Tofflers, George H. W. Bush, Margaret Thatcher, Carl Sagan, Abba Eban and Turner with his then wife, actress Jane Fonda. Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim was influenced by his works, and became a friend of the writer. Since the 1960s, people had tried to make sense out of the effect of new technologies and social change, a problem which made Toffler's writings widely influential beyond the confines of scientific, economic, and public policy. His works and ideas have been subject to various criticisms, usually with the same argumentation used against futurology: that foreseeing the future is nigh impossible. Musician Curtis Mayfield released a disco song called "Future Shock," later covered in an electro version by Herbie Hancock. Toffler has also been described in a Financial Times interview as the "world's most famous futurologist". In 2006, the People's Daily classed him among the 50 foreigners who shaped modern China, He convened conferences to discuss The Third Wave in the early 1980s, and in 1985 the book was the No. 2 best seller in China. Newt Gingrich became close to the Tofflers in the 1970s and said The Third Wave had immensely influenced his own thinking and was "one of the great seminal works of our time."
Тоффлеры утверждали, что предсказали ряд геополитических событий, таких как распад Советского Союза, падение Берлинской стены и будущий экономический рост в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе. В 1980 году Тед Тернер основал CNN, который, по его словам, был вдохновлен прогнозом Тоффлера о конце доминирования трех основных телевизионных сетей. Компания Тернера, Turner Broadcasting, опубликовала книгу Тоффлера «Создание новой цивилизации» в 1995 году. Вскоре после выхода книги бывший президент СССР Михаил Горбачев провел в Сан-Франциско конференцию по глобальному управлению на тему «На пути к новой цивилизации», в которой приняли участие десятки мировых лидеров, включая Тоффлеров, Джорджа Буша-старшего, Маргарет Тэтчер, Карла Сагана, Аббу Эбана и Тернера вместе со своей тогдашней женой, актрисой Джейн Фонда. Мексиканский миллиардер Карлос Слим был под влиянием его работ и стал другом писателя. С 1960-х годов люди пытались понять влияние новых технологий и социальных изменений – проблему, которая сделала труды Тоффлера широко влиятельными за пределами научных, экономических и политических кругов. Его работы и идеи подвергались различной критике, обычно с использованием тех же аргументов, которые используются против футурологии: предвидеть будущее практически невозможно. Музыкант Кертис Мэйфилд выпустил диско-песню под названием «Future Shock», которую позже в электро-версии исполнил Херби Хэнкок. Тоффлера также описали в интервью Financial Times как «самого известного футуролога в мире». В 2006 году People's Daily включил его в число 50 иностранцев, которые сформировали современный Китай. Он проводил конференции для обсуждения «Третьей волны» в начале 1980-х годов, и в 1985 году книга стала бестселлером № 2 в Китае. Ньют Гингрич сблизился с Тоффлерами в 1970-х годах и сказал, что «Третья волна» оказала огромное влияние на его собственное мышление и была «одной из величайших основополагающих работ нашего времени».
Toffler stated many of his ideas during an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation in 1998. His opinions about the future of education, many of which were in Future Shock, have often been quoted. An often misattributed quote, however, is that of psychologist Herbert Gerjuoy: "Tomorrow's illiterate will not be the man who can't read; he will be the man who has not learned how to learn." Early in his career, after traveling to other countries, he became aware of the new and myriad inputs that visitors received from these other cultures. He explained during an interview that some visitors would become "truly disoriented and upset" by the strange environment, which he described as a reaction to culture shock. From that issue, he foresaw another problem for the future, when a culturally "new environment comes to you and comes to you rapidly." That kind of sudden cultural change within one's own country, which he felt many would not understand, would lead to a similar reaction, one of "future shock", which he wrote about in his book by that title. In The Third Wave, Toffler describes three types of societies, based on the concept of "waves"—each wave pushes the older societies and cultures aside. He describes the "First Wave" as the society after agrarian revolution and replaced the first hunter gatherer cultures. The "Second Wave," he labels society during the Industrial Revolution (ca. late 17th century through the mid 20th century). That period saw the increase of urban industrial populations which had undermined the traditional nuclear family, and initiated a factory like education system, and the growth of the corporation. Toffler said:
blockquote|The Second Wave Society is industrial and based on mass production, mass distribution, mass consumption, mass education, mass media, mass recreation, mass entertainment, and weapons of mass destruction. You combine those things with standardization, centralization, concentration, and synchronization, and you wind up with a style of organization we call bureaucracy. The Tofflers claimed to have predicted a number of geopolitical events, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the future economic growth in the Asia Pacific region. In 1980, Ted Turner founded CNN, which he said was inspired by Toffler's forecasting the end of the dominance of the three main television networks. Turner's company, Turner Broadcasting, published Toffler's Creating a New Civilization in 1995. Shortly after the book was released, the former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev hosted the Global Governance Conference in San Francisco with the theme, Toward a New Civilization, which was attended by dozens of world figures, including the Tofflers, George H. W. Bush, Margaret Thatcher, Carl Sagan, Abba Eban and Turner with his then wife, actress Jane Fonda. Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim was influenced by his works, and became a friend of the writer. Since the 1960s, people had tried to make sense out of the effect of new technologies and social change, a problem which made Toffler's writings widely influential beyond the confines of scientific, economic, and public policy. His works and ideas have been subject to various criticisms, usually with the same argumentation used against futurology: that foreseeing the future is nigh impossible. Musician Curtis Mayfield released a disco song called "Future Shock," later covered in an electro version by Herbie Hancock. Toffler has also been described in a Financial Times interview as the "world's most famous futurologist". In 2006, the People's Daily classed him among the 50 foreigners who shaped modern China, He convened conferences to discuss The Third Wave in the early 1980s, and in 1985 the book was the No. 2 best seller in China. Newt Gingrich became close to the Tofflers in the 1970s and said The Third Wave had immensely influenced his own thinking and was "one of the great seminal works of our time."
Личная жизнь
Тоффлер был женат на Хайди Тоффлер (урожденной Аделаиде Элизабет Фаррелл), также писательнице и футурологе. Они жили в районе Бел-Эйр города Лос-Анджелес, штат Калифорния, а ранее проживали в Реддинге, штат Коннектикут. Элвин Тоффлер скончался во сне 27 июня 2016 года в своем доме в Лос-Анджелесе. Причина смерти не была объявлена. Он похоронен в Мемориальном парке Вествуд.