АҚШ Ұлттық Барлау Кеңесі: Әлемдік трендтер мен стратегиялық бағалаулар

Government body responsible for strategic intelligence assessments

The National Intelligence Council (NIC), established in 1979 and reporting to the Director of National Intelligence, bridges the United States Intelligence Community (IC) with policy makers in the United States. The NIC produces the "Global Trends" report every four years beginning in 1997, for the incoming President of the United States. Their work is based on intelligence from a wide variety of sources that includes experts in academia and the private sector. NIC documents and reports which are used by policymakers, include the National Intelligence Estimate and the Global Trends reports delivered every four years. The NIC's goal is to provide policymakers with the best available information, that is unvarnished, unbiased and without regard to whether the analytic judgments conform to current U. S. policy. One of the NIC's most important analytical projects is a Global Trends report produced for the incoming US president, which is usually delivered to the incoming president between Election Day and Inauguration Day. The Global Trends reports assess critical drivers and scenarios for global trends with an approximate time horizon of fifteen years. The Global Trends analysis provides a basis for long range strategic policy assessment for the White House and the Intelligence Community. In 1997, the Office of the NIC Director released the first Global Trends report, "Global Trends 2010", The ONE consisted of a group of intelligence professionals, complemented by retired military officers, diplomats, and academics. Though ONE, which reported to the DCI, was officially outside of the CIA, many ONE members came from the agency. The National Intelligence Council (NIC), which was established in 1979, also reports to the Director of National Intelligence. The NIC bridges the United States Intelligence Community (IC) with policy makers in the United States, according to a February 2, 2007 DNI report. The report combines "traditional national security challenges" with "social trends that have clear security implications". The NIC also "provides the U. S. intelligence community's best judgments on crucial international issues". and the most recent, "NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World'" was released in March 2021. The NIC's Strategic Futures Group, under the direction of Maria Langan Riekhof, led the publication of the "Global Trends 2040" report, working with 18 organizations that make up the United States Intelligence Community. This includes the National Security Agency and C. I. A. "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" in 2012, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World", "Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future", "Global Trends 2010" in 1997,

In December 2004, the NIC published a report on its 2020 Project, titled "Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future". Developed in consultation with "non governmental experts around the world," the report examined possible scenarios evolving out of global trends shaping international politics and economics. Particular emphasis was put on the increasing role of China and India on the global stage, as well as the evolution of radical Islamic terrorism worldwide. Considerations are made for the potential proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and the use of biological and chemical weapons in future terrorist attacks.

At the beginning the Presidency of Donald Trump in January 2017, the Obama administration released its report titled, "Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress", which "highlighted the risk of a pandemic and the vast economic disruption it could cause." The Times listed headings such as "Competitive Coexistence", "Separate Silos", "Tragedy and Mobilization", and "A World Adrift" and questions if we will heed the report's warnings "at a time when states and societies are turning inward and political discourse has become poisonous." According to the report, "Nationalism and polarization have been on the rise in many countries, especially exclusionary nationalism. Efforts to contain and manage the virus have reinforced nationalist trends globally as some states turned inward to protect their citizens and sometimes cast blame on marginalized groups."

Name Term start Term end PresidentRichard Lehman19791981Jimmy CarterHenry RowenJuly 8, 1981September 1983Ronald ReaganRobert GatesSeptember 1983April 18, 1986Frank Horton IIISeptember 1986September 1987Fritz Ermarth1988January 20, 1993George H. W. BushJoseph NyeFebruary 20, 1993September 15, 1994Bill ClintonChristine WilliamsSeptember 15, 1994June 1, 1995Richard N. CooperJune 1, 1995January 1997John C. GannonJuly 22, 1997June 2001George W. BushJohn L. HelgersonAugust 3, 2001April 26, 2002Robert HutchingsFebruary 2003January 2005Thomas FingarJune 13, 2005December 1, 2008Peter LavoyDecember 1, 2008July 6, 2009Barack ObamaChris KojmJuly 6, 2009July 2014Greg TrevertonSeptember 8, 2014October 28, 2016Amy McAuliffeOctober 28, 2016October 27, 2019Donald TrumpNeil WileyOctober 28, 2019January 21, 2021Avril Haines (incumbent)January 21, 2021PresentJoe Biden