Футболдан статистиканы талдау сайты: Football Outsiders туралы

American football website

Football Outsiders (FO) was a website started in July 2003 which focused on advanced statistical analysis of the National Football League (NFL). The site was run by a staff of regular writers, who produced a series of weekly columns using both the site's in house statistics and their personal analyses of NFL games. In 2005 and 2006, the site partnered with FOXSports. com to cross publish many of the Outsiders' regular features, including power rankings based on a "weighted" version of the DVOA (Defense adjusted Value Over Average) statistic. In 2007, Football Outsiders content appeared on FOXSports. com (in a reduced capacity) along with AOL Sports and ESPN. com. Since 2008, the site has partnered exclusively with ESPN and provides mostly ESPN Insider content. In 2009, Football Outsiders began analyzing college football using similar statistical principles. As of 2023, after financial mismanagement, the site seems to have been abandoned by its owners. As of September 1, 2023, the website was no longer accessible. DVOA statistics have been moved to FTN Fantasy, which is owned by FTN Network. Aaron Schatz joined FTN Network as Chief Analytics Officer on August 29, 2023.

Football Outsiders was launched in August 2003 by Aaron Schatz, with two regular columns, one of which used an early version of the proprietary DVOA statistic. The original purpose of the site was to disprove a statement by Boston Globe reporter Ron Borges that the 2002 New England Patriots failed to make the postseason because they could not establish the run. Over the course of time, the site added more writers, and hosted Gregg Easterbrook for part of 2003. Between 2004 and 2005, the site introduced new statistics such as Defense adjusted Points Above Replacement (DPAR, later Defense adjusted Yards Above Replacement, DYAR) and Adjusted Line Yards (ALY). In 2005, the site began to cross publish many of its columns on FOXsports. com. In 2005, Football Outsiders also took over publication of Pro Football Prospectus, a book giving a preview of the upcoming NFL season. In 2009, the annual was renamed Football Outsiders Almanac. Currently, the site has incorporated the 1981–2022 NFL seasons into their statistics.

Football Outsiders has devised a series of proprietary formulas to calculate different advanced metrics.

DVOA (Defense adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down and distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. According to Football Outsiders, DVOA "breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent. Football has one objective to get to the end zone and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player's value or a team's performance." There is a separate DVOA measurement for special teams, which "compare[s] each kick or punt to the league average for based on the point value of field position at the position of each kick, catch, and return."

DYAR (Defense adjusted Yards Above Replacement) calculates each player's cumulative value above or below a "replacement level" alternative. DYAR differs from DVOA in calculating a player's total value through the course of a year, and not on a play for play rate. States Football Outsiders, "DVOA, by virtue of being a percentage or rate statistic, doesn’t take into account the cumulative value of having a player producing at a league median level over the course of an above average number of plays. By definition, a median level of performance is better than that provided by half of the league and the ability to maintain that level of performance while carrying a heavy work load is very valuable indeed."

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) "differentiate[s] between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line." ALY attempts to "separate the effect that the running back has on a particular play from the effect of the offensive line (and other offensive blockers) and the effect of the defense. Yardage ends up falling into roughly the following combinations: Losses, 0 4 yards, 5 10 yards, and 11+ yards. In general, the offensive line is 20% more responsible for lost yardage than it is for yardage gained up to four yards, but 50% less responsible for yardage gained from 5 10 yards, and not responsible for yardage past that. Thus, the creation of Adjusted Line Yards."

Drive Stats calculate a team's average success rate on a possession by possession basis: "[E]ach team's total number of drives as well as average yards per drive, points per drive, touchdowns per drive, punts per drive, and turnovers per drive, interceptions per drive, and fumbles lost per drive. LOS/Drive represents average starting field position (line of scrimmage) per drive from the offensive point of view. Drive stats are given for offense and defense, with NET representing simply offense minus defense."

Another metric Football Outsiders uses is Pythagorean projection, which estimates wins in a season by a formula originally conceived by baseball analyst Bill James, that takes the square of team points, and divides it by the sum of the squares of team points scored and allowed. The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac states, "From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Super Bowl champions that led the league in Pythagorean wins but not actual wins include the 2004 Patriots, 2000 Ravens, 1999 Rams and 1997 Broncos." Although Football Outsiders Almanac acknowledges that the formula had been less successful in picking Super Bowl participants from 2005 2008, it reasserted itself in 2009 and 2010. Furthermore, "[t]he Pythagorean projection is also still a valuable predictor of year to year improvement. Teams that win a minimum of one full game more than their Pythagorean projection tend to regress the following year; teams that win a minimum of one full game less than their Pythagorean projection tend to improve the following year, particularly if they were at or above .500 despite their underachieving. For example, the 2008 New Orleans Saints went 8 8 despite 9.5 Pythagorean wins, hinting at the improvement that came with the next year's championship season."

Bob Glauber, http://www. newsday. com/sports/football/glauber s nfl hot reads 1.811959/a football outsider s perspective 1.1413423 "Glauber's NFL Hot Reads"], Newsday. com (September 1, 2009). "Football Outsider: Football Statistics from Outside the Box—An Interview with Aaron Schatz," SportsTechNow. com (January 25, 2008). Will Leitch, "A Conversation with Football Outsiders EIC Aaron Schatz", Deadspin, August 26, 2009. "Q.&A. with Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders," in The Fifth Down, New York Times N. F. L. Blog, The New York Times, September 21, 2009.