Введение
Объяснения, данные после факта – концепция в паранормальной критике.
Постдикция подразумевает объяснение после наступления события. В скептицизме это рассматривается как следствие предвзятости в результате последующего знания, объясняющее заявленные предсказания значимых событий, таких как авиакатастрофы и стихийные бедствия. В религиозном контексте теологи часто используют термин *vaticinium ex eventu* (предсказание после события) для обозначения постдикции. С помощью этого термина скептики предполагают, что многие библейские пророчества (и аналогичные пророчества в других религиях), кажущиеся сбывшимися, могли быть написаны после событий, которые они якобы предсказывали, или что текст или его интерпретация могли быть изменены после события, чтобы соответствовать фактическому ходу событий. Скептики, изучающие предвидение, используют эти термины в ответ на заявления экстрасенсов, астрологов и других людей, занимающихся паранормальными явлениями, о предсказании события, когда исходное предсказание было расплывчатым, всеобъемлющим или иным образом неочевидным. Большинство предсказаний таких фигур, как Нострадамус и Джеймс Ван Прааг, выражают будущее с такой, казалось бы, намеренной неопределенностью и двусмысленностью, что делает интерпретацию практически невозможной до наступления события, делая их бесполезными в качестве прогностических инструментов. Однако после наступления события экстрасенсы или их сторонники подгоняют детали под предсказание, используя выборочное мышление – подчеркивая «попадания» и игнорируя «промахи» – чтобы придать пророчеству правдоподобность и создать впечатление точного «предсказания». Неточные предсказания опускаются. Сторонники предсказания иногда утверждают, что проблема заключается не в формулировке предсказания, а в его интерпретации – аргумент, который иногда используют сторонники религиозных текстов. Этот аргумент может привести к вопросу: «В чем смысл предсказания, которое нельзя правильно истолковать до наступления события?» Однако суть не в том, что предсказание нельзя было правильно истолковать до события, а в том, что в данном случае этого не произошло, следовательно, вопрос исходит из ложной посылки. Разумеется, любое «предсказание», которое настолько расплывчато, что не может быть правильно истолковано до события, которое оно якобы «предсказало», фактически равносильно полному отсутствию предсказания.
Explanations given after the fact
the concept in paranormal criticism
Postdiction involves explanation after the fact. In skepticism, it is considered an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events such as plane crashes and natural disasters. In religious contexts, theologians frequently refer to postdiction using the Latin term vaticinium ex eventu (foretelling after the event). Through this term, skeptics postulate that many biblical prophecies (and similar prophecies in other religions) appearing to have come true may have been written after the events supposedly predicted, or that the text or interpretation may have been modified after the event to fit the facts as they occurred. Skeptics of premonition use these terms in response to claims made by psychics, astrologers and other paranormalists to have predicted an event, when the original prediction was vague, catch all, or otherwise non obvious. Most predictions from such figures as Nostradamus and James Van Praagh express the future with such seemingly deliberate vagueness and ambiguity as to make interpretation nearly impossible before the event, rendering them useless as predictive tools. After the event has occurred, however, the psychics or their supporters shoehorn details into the prediction by using selective thinking—emphasizing the "hits", ignoring the "misses"—in order to lend credence to the prophecy and to give the impression of an accurate "prediction". Inaccurate predictions are omitted. Supporters of a prediction sometimes contend that the problem lies not with the wording of the prediction, but with the interpretation—an argument sometimes used by supporters of religious texts. This argument may lead to the question: "What is the point of a prediction that cannot be interpreted correctly before the event?" However, the argument is not that the prediction could not have been interpreted correctly prior to the event, but simply that it was not in the case in question, thus the question is working from a false premise. Of course, any "prediction" that is so vague as to not be correctly interpreted before the event it allegedly "predicted" is functionally equivalent to no prediction at all.
the concept in paranormal criticism
Postdiction involves explanation after the fact. In skepticism, it is considered an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events such as plane crashes and natural disasters. In religious contexts, theologians frequently refer to postdiction using the Latin term vaticinium ex eventu (foretelling after the event). Through this term, skeptics postulate that many biblical prophecies (and similar prophecies in other religions) appearing to have come true may have been written after the events supposedly predicted, or that the text or interpretation may have been modified after the event to fit the facts as they occurred. Skeptics of premonition use these terms in response to claims made by psychics, astrologers and other paranormalists to have predicted an event, when the original prediction was vague, catch all, or otherwise non obvious. Most predictions from such figures as Nostradamus and James Van Praagh express the future with such seemingly deliberate vagueness and ambiguity as to make interpretation nearly impossible before the event, rendering them useless as predictive tools. After the event has occurred, however, the psychics or their supporters shoehorn details into the prediction by using selective thinking—emphasizing the "hits", ignoring the "misses"—in order to lend credence to the prophecy and to give the impression of an accurate "prediction". Inaccurate predictions are omitted. Supporters of a prediction sometimes contend that the problem lies not with the wording of the prediction, but with the interpretation—an argument sometimes used by supporters of religious texts. This argument may lead to the question: "What is the point of a prediction that cannot be interpreted correctly before the event?" However, the argument is not that the prediction could not have been interpreted correctly prior to the event, but simply that it was not in the case in question, thus the question is working from a false premise. Of course, any "prediction" that is so vague as to not be correctly interpreted before the event it allegedly "predicted" is functionally equivalent to no prediction at all.
Скептицизм
В скептицизме постдикция также называется пост-теневым наблюдением, ретроактивным ясновидением или предсказанием после факта и является эффектом предвзятости, подтверждающей, которая объясняет заявленные предсказания значительных событий, таких как авиакатастрофы и стихийные бедствия. Обвинения в постдиктованности могут быть применимы, если предсказание было:
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Неопределенным. Предсказание содержит неспецифическое утверждение. Например, оно предсказывает какую-то «катастрофу», но не уточняет, что это за катастрофа. Такое предсказание можно подстроить под любое количество событий. Аналогично, предсказание, которое не указывает даты или места, или допускает широкий диапазон возможных дат, можно интерпретировать как подходящее ко многим вариантам. Пророчество, приписываемое святому Малахии (но широко рассматриваемое как подделка XVI века), утверждает, что предсказывает последовательность пап, кратко описывая каждого из них. Однако каждое описание достаточно расплывчато, чтобы его можно было подстроить под факты после их наступления.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Открытым. Предсказание имеет очень долгий срок действия или вообще не имеет его, и, следовательно, действует неопределенно долго. Многие четверостишия Нострадамуса имеют открытый конец и на протяжении веков интерпретировались как подходящие к различным современным событиям.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Переработанным. Предсказание используется снова и снова, чтобы соответствовать последнему событию. Четверостишия Нострадамуса неоднократно перерабатывались.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Всеобъемлющим. Предсказание охватывает более одного возможного исхода. Например, ответ Дельфийского оракула на вопрос, следует ли Крёзу нападать на персов: «Если ты нападешь, ты уничтожишь могущественную империю». Крёз напал и уничтожил свою собственную империю.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
«Дробным». Предсказание на самом деле представляет собой множество предсказаний, предназначенных для охвата широкого спектра событий и получения признания, даже если сбудется только одно из них. Например, утверждение, что определенная дата «несчастливая», а затем перечисление дюжины или около того событий, которые могут произойти в этот день. См. выборочное мышление.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Статистически вероятным. Предсказание делает утверждение о чем-то, что происходит достаточно часто, что высокий процент попаданий практически гарантирован. Например, предсказание террористических актов в любой день года или особенно во время национальных праздников, юбилеев (или аналогичных событий) или религиозных праздников.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Нефальсифицируемым. Предсказание содержит утверждение, которое невозможно проверить или опровергнуть. Например, в 2003 году среди некоторых возникла вера в то, что планета X пройдет мимо Земли в мае того года. Когда она не появилась, некоторые утверждали, что она была скрыта так, что ее мог увидеть только «образованный глаз», и приводили различные другие оправдания, игнорируя самую очевидную причину — то, что планета X в предсказанной форме вообще не существует.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Недоступным до наступления события. Предсказание нельзя проверить, если нет публичных записей о том, когда оно было сделано. Известным примером является экстрасенс Тамара Рэнд, которая предсказала, что Рональду Рейгану угрожает человек с инициалами «Дж. Х.». Видеоинтервью, в котором было сделано это предсказание, было снято на следующий день после покушения.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Учитывающим только попадания, а не промахи. Предсказание может быть частью серии, но выделяется, потому что его можно интерпретировать благоприятно, даже если сама серия следует законам вероятности. Например, предсказание может правильно указать движение на фондовом рынке, в то время как предыдущие или последующие предсказания были неверными.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Аллегоричным. Постдикция прибегает к натянутым аллегорическим объяснениям, чтобы превратить буквальные промахи в попадания. Например, постдикция может объяснить, что известный человек умер «духовной» смертью, чтобы объяснить, почему он все еще жив, несмотря на предсказание, которое говорит об обратном.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Перемещающим планку. Событие должно быть «подстроено» под предсказание, потому что оно в чем-то значительно отличается. Например, предсказание предсказывает землетрясение в один день, а оно происходит в другой день. Сторонники Нострадамуса иногда используют эту технику, например, в случае терактов 11 сентября, произошедших на 45-й параллели (фактически около 40 градусов северной широты).
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Термин был придуман психологом Уолтером Кинтчем в 1980 году и усовершенствован ученым-когнитивистом Афзалом Упалом в 2005 году. Хит и Хит использовали определение Упала, не указывая его явно, в своей книге 2007 года «Сделано, чтобы запомниться». Концепции, которые можно оправдать в данном контексте, называются постдиктируемыми.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Нейробиологии
В нейробиологии постдикция означает, что мозг собирает информацию после события, прежде чем ретроспективно определяет, что произошло в момент этого события (Eagleman и Sejnowski, 2000). Постдикция – это специфическая интерпретация экспериментальных результатов, демонстрирующих временную интеграцию информации, которая активно обсуждается. Продолжительность окна временной интеграции сенсорной информации варьируется от десятков до сотен миллисекунд. Она значительно меняется в зависимости от задачи, поэтому возможно наличие нескольких постдиктических окон интеграции, которые согласуются между разными испытуемыми. Считается, что продолжительность постдиктических окон интеграции жестко запрограммирована в нашем мозге, но её можно увеличить, обучая испытуемых систематическим задержкам между причинно связанными событиями. Постдиктическое окно, как полагают, запускается яркими сенсорными событиями, действующими как точки сброса, такими как внезапное появление стимулов и саккадические движения глаз. Утверждается, что постдикция играет центральную роль в формировании нашего ощущения авторства действий, сжимая воспринимаемый интервал между произвольным действием и его внешним сенсорным следствием. Постдиктические механизмы, как считается, постоянно лежат в основе нашего восприятия и могут быть выявлены с помощью некоторых иллюзий восприятия: например, в иллюзии запаздывания вспышки местоположение движущихся стимулов ошибочно воспринимается из-за попадания в одно и то же постдиктическое окно интеграции.
In neuroscience, postdiction indicates that the brain collects up information after an event before it retrospectively decides what happened at the time of the event (Eagleman and Sejnowski, 2000). Postdiction is a particular interpretation of experimental results showing temporal integration of information, and it has been largely debated. The duration of the window of temporal integration of sensory information ranges between tens to hundreds of milliseconds. Its duration significantly varies across tasks, so there may be several postdictive windows of integration, and they are consistent across subjects. The duration of the postdictive windows of integration is supposedly hardwired in our brain, but it could be extended by training subjects to systematic delays between causally bounded events. The postdictive window is believed to be triggered by highly salient sensory events acting as resets, such as abrupt stimuli onset and saccadic eye movements. Postdiction is argued to play a central role in shaping our sense of agency, by compressing the perceived interval between a voluntary action and its external sensory consequence. Postdictive mechanisms are believed to constantly underlie our perception, and can be revealed by some perceptual illusions: for example, in the flash lag illusion the location of moving stimuli are mistakenly perceived due to their falling within the same postdictive window of integration.