Кіріспе
Жағдайдан кейін берілген түсіндірмелер – паранормальды сынақтағы ұғым. Постдикция – бұл оқиға болған соң түсіндіруді білдіреді. Скептицизмде, бұл ұшақ апаттары және табиғи апаттар сияқты маңызды оқиғалардың болжамдарын түсіндіретін, кейінге қарай ойлаудың салдары ретінде қарастырылады. Діни контексте теологтар постдикцияны латын тіліндегі vaticinium ex eventu (оқиғадан кейін болжау) терминімен жиі атайды. Осы термин арқылы скептиктер көптеген библиялық болжамдардың (және басқа діндердегі ұқсас болжамдардың) орындалғандай көрінуіне себеп, олардың болған оқиғалардан кейін жазылған болуы мүмкін, немесе мәтін немесе түсіндірме оқиғадан кейін фактілерге сәйкес өзгертілген болуы мүмкін деп санайды. Алдын ала сезімге күмәнданушылар бұл терминдерді экстрасенстер, астрологтар және басқа паранормалистердің оқиғаны болжағандағы талаптарына жауап ретінде қолданады, егер бастапқы болжамды түсіндіру қиын болса, немесе ол жалпылама болса. Мысалы, Нострадамус пен Джеймс Ван Праг сияқты тұлғалардың көптеген болжамдары болашақты осылай әдейі түсініксіз және екіұшты түрде көрсетеді, оқиғадан бұрын оларды түсіндіруді дерлік мүмкін емес етеді, осылайша оларды болжау құралы ретінде қолданусыз етеді. Бірақ оқиға орын алғаннан кейін, экстрасенстер немесе олардың қолдаушылары болжамды нақтылау үшін, сәттіліктерге баса назар беріп, қателіктерді елемеу арқылы оған сәйкес жағдайларды «қиыстырып» қояды, осылайша болжамның дұрыстығына сендіруге тырысады. Дұрыс болмаған болжамдар жасырылып қалады. Кейде болжамды қолдаушылар мәселенің болжамның сөздерінде емес, оны түсіндіруде екенін айтады – бұл діни мәтіндерді қолдаушылар да жиі қолданатын аргумент. Бұл аргумент мынандай сұраққа әкелуі мүмкін: «Оқиғадан бұрын дұрыс түсіндірілмейтін болжамның мағынасы қандай?» Дегенмен, бұл аргумент болжамды оқиғаға дейін дұрыс түсіндіруге болмайды дегенді білдірмейді, тек бұл жағдайда олай болмады, сондықтан сұрақ жалған негізден туындайды. Әрине, оқиға «болған» дейтін кезге дейін дұрыс түсіндірілмейтін кез келген «болжам» болжам емес екенімен тең.
Explanations given after the fact
the concept in paranormal criticism
Postdiction involves explanation after the fact. In skepticism, it is considered an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events such as plane crashes and natural disasters. In religious contexts, theologians frequently refer to postdiction using the Latin term vaticinium ex eventu (foretelling after the event). Through this term, skeptics postulate that many biblical prophecies (and similar prophecies in other religions) appearing to have come true may have been written after the events supposedly predicted, or that the text or interpretation may have been modified after the event to fit the facts as they occurred. Skeptics of premonition use these terms in response to claims made by psychics, astrologers and other paranormalists to have predicted an event, when the original prediction was vague, catch all, or otherwise non obvious. Most predictions from such figures as Nostradamus and James Van Praagh express the future with such seemingly deliberate vagueness and ambiguity as to make interpretation nearly impossible before the event, rendering them useless as predictive tools. After the event has occurred, however, the psychics or their supporters shoehorn details into the prediction by using selective thinking—emphasizing the "hits", ignoring the "misses"—in order to lend credence to the prophecy and to give the impression of an accurate "prediction". Inaccurate predictions are omitted. Supporters of a prediction sometimes contend that the problem lies not with the wording of the prediction, but with the interpretation—an argument sometimes used by supporters of religious texts. This argument may lead to the question: "What is the point of a prediction that cannot be interpreted correctly before the event?" However, the argument is not that the prediction could not have been interpreted correctly prior to the event, but simply that it was not in the case in question, thus the question is working from a false premise. Of course, any "prediction" that is so vague as to not be correctly interpreted before the event it allegedly "predicted" is functionally equivalent to no prediction at all.
the concept in paranormal criticism
Postdiction involves explanation after the fact. In skepticism, it is considered an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events such as plane crashes and natural disasters. In religious contexts, theologians frequently refer to postdiction using the Latin term vaticinium ex eventu (foretelling after the event). Through this term, skeptics postulate that many biblical prophecies (and similar prophecies in other religions) appearing to have come true may have been written after the events supposedly predicted, or that the text or interpretation may have been modified after the event to fit the facts as they occurred. Skeptics of premonition use these terms in response to claims made by psychics, astrologers and other paranormalists to have predicted an event, when the original prediction was vague, catch all, or otherwise non obvious. Most predictions from such figures as Nostradamus and James Van Praagh express the future with such seemingly deliberate vagueness and ambiguity as to make interpretation nearly impossible before the event, rendering them useless as predictive tools. After the event has occurred, however, the psychics or their supporters shoehorn details into the prediction by using selective thinking—emphasizing the "hits", ignoring the "misses"—in order to lend credence to the prophecy and to give the impression of an accurate "prediction". Inaccurate predictions are omitted. Supporters of a prediction sometimes contend that the problem lies not with the wording of the prediction, but with the interpretation—an argument sometimes used by supporters of religious texts. This argument may lead to the question: "What is the point of a prediction that cannot be interpreted correctly before the event?" However, the argument is not that the prediction could not have been interpreted correctly prior to the event, but simply that it was not in the case in question, thus the question is working from a false premise. Of course, any "prediction" that is so vague as to not be correctly interpreted before the event it allegedly "predicted" is functionally equivalent to no prediction at all.
Скептицизм
Скептицизмде постдикция пост-саяулық, ретроактивті көру немесе оқиғадан кейін болжау деп те аталады және ұшақ апаттары мен табиғи апаттар сияқты маңызды оқиғалардың болжамын түсіндіретін кейінге қарай болжаудың әсері болып табылады. Егер болжау:
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Бұлыңғыр болса, постдикция туралы айыптаулар қолданылуы мүмкін. Мысалы, ол қандай да бір "апат" болғанын алдын ала айтады, бірақ оның не екенін айтпайды. Мұндай болжамды кез келген оқиғаға сәйкес етіп өзгертуге болады. Сол сияқты, күндерді немесе орындарды айтпаған немесе өзіне ықтимал күндер туралы үлкен терезе беретін болжам көптеген ықтималдықтарға сәйкес келуі мүмкін. Киелі Малахияға қатысты пайғамбарлық (бірақ оны 16-ғасырдың жалғандығы деп кеңінен қарастырады) әрқайсысын қысқаша сипаттап, папалардың кезектілігін болжайды. Алайда, әрбір сипаттама жеткілікті түрде анық емес, оны кейіннен өзгертуге болады.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Ашық аяқталған. Болжамның өте ұзақ мерзімі бар немесе мүлдем жоқ, сондықтан ол шексіз жалғасады. Нострадамустың көптеген квартейндері ашық аяқталады және ғасырлар бойы әртүрлі заманауи оқиғаларға сәйкес келеді.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Қайта өңдеу. Соңғы оқиғаға сәйкес болу үшін болжау қайтадан қайтадан пайдаланылады. Нострадамустың төртбұрыштары бірнеше рет қайта қолданылған.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Барлық болжаулар. Бірден көп нәтижеге ие. Мысалы, Дельфидегі оракулдың Крез перстерге шабуыл жасамауға қатысты берген жауабы мынау еді: "Егер шабуыл жасасаң, бір ғаламат империяны құртасың". Крез өз империясын жойып, шабуылға түсті.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Болжамдар - бұл көптеген болжамдар, олар бірнеше оқиғаларды қамтиды және олардың біреуі ғана орын алса да, несиелерді талап етеді. Мысалы, белгілі бір күнді "бұрыс" деп атап, содан кейін ондаған нәрселерді атап өту. Таңдаулы ойлауды қараңыз.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Статистикалық ықтималдық. Жоғары нәтижеге қол жеткізуге мүмкіндік беретін жиілікпен болатын оқиғалар туралы болжау. Мысалы, жылдың кез келген күні, немесе әсіресе ұлттық мерекелер, мерейтойлар (немесе осыған ұқсас оқиғалар) немесе діни мерекелер айналасында терроризмді болжау.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Жалған емес болжау. Бұл растау немесе жалған деп тану мүмкін емес мәлімдеме. Мысалы, 2003 жылы кейбір адамдар арасында X планетасы сол жылдың мамыр айында Жерден өтеді деген сенім пайда болды. Ол пайда бола алмағанда, кейбіреулер оны "білімді көз" ғана көре алатындай етіп жасырып қалды деп мәлімдеді және басқа да көптеген ақталулар, ал ең айқын себеп - X планетасы болжалған түрде мүлдем жоқ деп есептеді.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Нақты орындалған уақытына қатысты мемлекеттік дерек болмаса, оны тексеру мүмкін емес. Бұған мысал ретінде, "Дж.Х". деген аты бар біреу Рональд Рейганға қауіп төндіретінін болжаған, Тамара Рэнд есімді психик адамды келтіруге болады. Бұл болжамды айтқан бейне сұхбат қастандыққа ұшырағаннан кейін бір күн өткен соң түсірілген.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Жетістіктерді емес, сәтсіздіктерді санау. Болжамдар бір қатардың бөлігі болуы мүмкін, бірақ ол жекеленіп, өйткені ол оңтайлы түсіндірілуі мүмкін, тіпті егер қатардың өзі ықтималдық заңдарына сәйкес келсе де. Мысалы, алдын ала болжаудың бұрыңғы немесе кейінгі болжаулары қате болған кезде қор нарығындағы қозғалысты дұрыс көрсетуі мүмкін.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Аллегория. Постдикция сөзбе-сөз сәтсіздіктерді табыстарға айналдыру үшін әлсіз аллегориялық түсіндірмелерге жүгінеді. Мысалы, постдикция белгілі бір адамның "рухани" өлімге ұшырағанын түсіндіріп, оның неге әлі де жүріп жатқанын түсіндіре алады.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Мақсатты жылжыту. Болжамға сәйкес оқиға "аяқпен" салынуы керек, өйткені ол белгілі бір маңызды жағынан ерекшеленеді. Мысалы, бір күні жер сілкінісі болады деп болжайды, алайда ол басқа күні болады. Нострадамустың жақтастары кейде осы әдісті қолданады, мысалы, 11 қыркүйектегі террорлық шабуылдар 45-ші параллельде ((әдетте, кеңістігі 40 градус).
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Бұл терминді психолог Уолтер Кинч 1980 жылы шығарды және танымдық ғалым Афзал Упал 2005 жылы жетілдірді. Heath & Heath Upal-тің анықтамасын 2007 жылғы "Made to Stick" кітабында нақты келтірмей қолданды. Берілген жағдайда дәлелденетін ұғымдар постдиктабельді деп аталады.
In skepticism, postdiction is also referred to as post shadowing, retroactive clairvoyance, or prediction after the fact, and is an effect of hindsight bias that explains claimed predictions of significant events, such as plane crashes and natural disasters. Accusations of postdiction might be applicable if the prediction were:
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Vague The prediction makes a non specific claim. For example, it predicts a "disaster" of some kind, but not what it is. Such a prediction can be massaged to fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not state dates or places, or allows itself a large window of possible dates, can be made to fit many possibilities. A prophecy attributed to Saint Malachy (but widely regarded as a 16th century forgery) claims to predict the succession of Popes by describing each one briefly. However, each description is sufficiently vague that it can be massaged to fit after the fact. Open ended The prediction has a very long cut off date or none at all, and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. Recycled The prediction is reused again and again in order to match the most recent event. Nostradamus' quatrains have been recycled numerous times. Catch all The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: If you attack, you will destroy a mighty empire. Croesus attacked, destroying his own empire. Shotgunning The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing a dozen or so things that might happen on it. See selective thinking. Statistically likely The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. For example, predicting terrorism on any day of the year, or particularly around national holidays, anniversaries (or similar events), or religious festivals. Unfalsifiable The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. For example, a belief arose amongst a few in 2003 that a Planet X would pass the Earth in May of that year. When it singularly failed to appear, some claimed it was shrouded so that only an "educated eye" could see it and various other excuses, while discounting the most obvious reason—that Planet X does not exist at all in the form predicted. Unavailable until after the fact A prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who predicted that Ronald Reagan was in danger of someone with the initials "J. H.". The video interview in which this prediction was made was shot the day after the assassination attempt. Counting the hits and not the misses The prediction may be part of a series, but is singled out because it can be favourably interpreted, even if the series itself follows the laws of probability. For example, the prediction might correctly state movement on the stock market when previous or subsequent predictions have been wrong. Allegory The postdiction resorts to tenuous allegorical explanations to turn literal misses into hits. For example, the postdiction might explain that a famous person has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why they are still walking around despite a prediction that says otherwise. Moving the goalposts The event must be "shoehorned" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way. For example, the prediction predicts an earthquake on one day, when in fact it happens on a different day. Nostradamus' supporters occasionally use this technique, like the September 11 terrorist attacks on the 45th parallel(actually around 40 degrees latitude). The term was coined by psychologist Walter Kintsch in 1980 and refined by cognitive scientist Afzal Upal in 2005. Heath & Heath used Upal's definition without explicitly citing him in their 2007 book Made to Stick. Concepts that can be justified in a given context are called postdictable.
Нейробиологиялық ғылым
Нейробиологияда постдикция – ми оқиға болғаннан кейін ақпаратты жинап, содан кейін ғана оқиға кезінде не болғанын анықтайды (Eagleman and Sejnowski, 2000). Постдикция – ақпараттың уақыт бойынша интеграциялануын көрсететін эксперименттік нәтижелердің нақты бір түсіндірмесі және ол көптеп талқыланған. Сенсорлық ақпараттың уақытша интеграциясының терезесінің ұзақтығы ондағаннан жүздеген миллисекундқа дейін өзгереді. Оның ұзақтығы тапсырмаларға байланысты айтарлықтай өзгеріп, бірнеше постдиктивтік интеграция терезелері болуы мүмкін, және олар түрлі адамдарда бірдей болады. Интеграцияның постдиктивтік терезелерінің ұзақтығы миымызда берілгендей орнатылған, бірақ оны жаттығу арқылы себеп-салдарлық байланысы бар оқиғалар арасындағы жүйелі кешігулерге дейін ұзартуға болады. Постдиктивтік терезе, кенеттен стимул пайда болуы және көздің сакадтық қозғалыстары сияқты, күшті сезімдік оқиғалардың қайта орнату механизмі ретінде іске қосылады деп есептеледі. Постдикция ерікті әрекет пен оның сыртқы сезімдік салдары арасындағы қабылданатын уақыт аралығын қысқарту арқылы, біздің өзімізге қатысты сезімімізді қалыптастыруда маңызды рөл атқарады. Постдиктивтік механизмдер біздің қабылдауымыздың негізінде жатыр деп саналады және оларды кейбір қабылдау иллюзиялары арқылы көруге болады: мысалы, флэш-лаг иллюзиясында қозғалатын стимулдардың орналасуы олардың бірдей постдиктивтік интеграция терезесіне түсуіне байланысты қате қабылданады.
In neuroscience, postdiction indicates that the brain collects up information after an event before it retrospectively decides what happened at the time of the event (Eagleman and Sejnowski, 2000). Postdiction is a particular interpretation of experimental results showing temporal integration of information, and it has been largely debated. The duration of the window of temporal integration of sensory information ranges between tens to hundreds of milliseconds. Its duration significantly varies across tasks, so there may be several postdictive windows of integration, and they are consistent across subjects. The duration of the postdictive windows of integration is supposedly hardwired in our brain, but it could be extended by training subjects to systematic delays between causally bounded events. The postdictive window is believed to be triggered by highly salient sensory events acting as resets, such as abrupt stimuli onset and saccadic eye movements. Postdiction is argued to play a central role in shaping our sense of agency, by compressing the perceived interval between a voluntary action and its external sensory consequence. Postdictive mechanisms are believed to constantly underlie our perception, and can be revealed by some perceptual illusions: for example, in the flash lag illusion the location of moving stimuli are mistakenly perceived due to their falling within the same postdictive window of integration.