Долларлық аукцион: Рационалды таңдау теориясының парадоксы

Game illustrating paradox in rational choice theory

The dollar auction is a non zero sum sequential game explored by economist Martin Shubik to illustrate a paradox brought about by traditional rational choice theory in which players are compelled to make an ultimately irrational decision based completely on a sequence of apparently rational choices made throughout the game.

The setup involves an auctioneer who volunteers to auction off a dollar bill with the following rule: the bill goes to the winner; however, the second highest bidder also loses the amount that they bid, making them the biggest loser in the auction. The winner can get a dollar for a mere 5 cents (the minimum bid), but only if no one else enters into the bidding war. However, entering the auction with a low bid may result in a problematic outcome. For instance, a player might begin by bidding 5 cents, hoping to make a 95 cent profit. They can be outbid by another player bidding 10 cents, as a 90 cent profit is still desirable. Similarly, another bidder may bid 15 cents, making an 85 cent profit. Meanwhile, the second bidder may attempt to convert their loss of 10 cents into a gain of 80 cents by bidding 20 cents, and so on. Every player has a choice of either paying for nothing or bidding 5 cents more on the dollar. A series of short term rational bids will reach and ultimately surpass one dollar as the bidders seek to minimize their losses. If the first bidder bids 95 cents, and the second bidder bids one dollar (for no net gain or loss), the first bidder stands to lose 95 cents unless they bid $1.05, in which case bidding more than the value of the dollar would reduce their losses to only 5 cents. The maximum bid follows a binomial distribution with mean 0.5 (recall the bidders make zero profits each, on average).