Народные приметы о погоде: история и современность

Body of informal folklore related to the prediction of the weather

Weather lore is the body of informal folklore related to the prediction of the weather and its greater meaning. Much like regular folklore, weather lore is passed down through speech and writing from normal people without the use of external measuring instruments. The origin of weather lore can be dated back to primeval men and their usage of star studying in navigation. However, more recently during the Late Middle Ages, the works of two Greek philosopher poets, Theophrastus of Eresus on Lesbos and Aratus of Macedonia, are known for shaping the prediction of weather. Theophrastus and Aratus collated their works in two main collections for weather lore: On Weather Signs and On Winds. These were used for helping farmers with harvest, merchants for trade and determining the weather the next day. Astrology and weather lore have been closely interlinked for many years with each planet often being associated with a weather state. For example, Mars is red and must therefore be hot and dry. Prevalent in ancient Roman thought, astrologists used weather lore to teach commoners of the star and cloud formations and how they can be used to see the future. One which related to winds and clouds and had some scientific basis. A second type connected with saints' days possessed doubtful validity but was quite popular nonetheless during the Middle Ages. A third type treated the behaviour of birds and animals, which has been found to be controlled more by past and present weather rather than to be a true indication of the future. Today, the majority of weather lore can be found in proverbs. However, much of the weather lore fantasy is still prevalent in today's seasonal calendar, with mentions such as the annual saints' days, the passage of the months, and weather predictions made from animal behaviour. The creation of the astrological signs in Babylonian mythology can also be attributed to the study of stars and its association with weather lore. A significant portion of weather occurs in Earth's middle latitudes, between roughly 30° to 60° North and South. A great percentage of the world's population lives in the equatorial regions, but for the most part, these regions do not experience weather as it is understood by this definition. The Sahara in northern Africa, for instance, is almost uniformly hot, sunny and dry all year long especially due to the non stop presence of high atmospheric pressure aloft, whereas weather trends on the Indian subcontinent and in the western Pacific, for instance, the monsoonal belt, occur gradually over the very long term, and the diurnal weather patterns remain constant. Weather folklore, therefore, refers to this mid latitude region of daily variability. While most of it applies equally to the Southern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere resident may need to take into account the fact that weather systems rotate opposite to those in the North. For instance, the "crossed winds" rule (see below) must be reversed for the Australian reader.

No weather is ill if the wind be still. Calm conditions, especially with clear skies, indicate the dominance of a high pressure area. Because highs are broad regions of descending air, they discourage the formation of phenomena typically associated with weather, such as clouds, wind, and precipitation. Calm conditions, though, may also result from a circumstance known as "the calm before the storm," in which a large thunderstorm cell to the west may be updrafting the westerly surface wind before it can arrive locally. This situation is readily identifiable by looking to the west – such an approaching storm will be close enough to be unmistakable. In winter, though, calm air and clear skies may signal the presence of an Arctic high, typically accompanied by very cold air, and it is difficult to imagine describing a temperature of –35 °C (–31 °F) as pleasant.

If clouds move against the wind, rain will follow. This rule may be true under a few special circumstances, otherwise it is false. By standing with one's back to the ground level wind and observing the movement of the clouds, it is possible to determine whether the weather will improve or deteriorate. Other studies gave accuracy percentages, but differing figures. and some of the numbers were slightly better than hazarded guess (33% accurate), according to one source.

There are weather lore marked by dates on the year's calendar.

The Hispanic tradition of cabañuelas predicts the weather for the year based on the 12, 18 or 24 days of January or August.

There are weather lore around February 2, known as Candlemas, Brigid's Day, or St. Blaise's Day (St. Blaze's Day). One French lore says that if it rains on Candlemas (Chandeleur) there will be forty more days of rainy day: Quand il pleut pour la Chandeleur, il pleut pendant quarante jours. Groundhog Day also falls on this day.

In the British Isles, Saint Swithun's day (July 15) is said to forecast the weather for the rest of the summer. If St Swithun's day is dry, then the legend says that the next forty days will also be dry: "St. Swithin's Day if thou be fair, 'Twill rain for forty days no mair; St. Swithin's Day if thou dost rain, For forty days it will remain.". If however it rains, the rain will continue for forty days. There is a scientific basis to the legend of St Swithun's day. Around the middle of July, the jet stream settles into a pattern which, in the majority of years, holds reasonably steady until the end of August. When the jet stream lies north of the British Isles then continental high pressure is able to move in; when it lies across or south of the British Isles, Arctic air and Atlantic weather systems predominate.

The Hispanic tradition of cabañuelas predicts the weather for the year based on the first 12, 18 or 24 days of January or August.

In France, Saint Medard (June 8), Urban of Langres (April 2), and Saint Gervase and Saint Protais (June 19) are credited with an influence on the weather almost identical with that attributed to St Swithun in England, while in Flanders there is St Godelieve (July 6) and in Germany the Seven Sleepers Day (June 27). In Russia, the weather on the feast of the Protecting Veil is popularly believed to indicate the severity of the forthcoming winter. There was an old proverb from Romagna that ran: "Par San Paternian e' trema la coda a e' can." ("On St. Paternian's day, the dog's tail wags"). This Cervian proverb refers to the fact that the cold began to be felt around the saint's feast day. A farmers' saying associated with Quirinus' feast day of March 30 was "Wie der Quirin, so der Sommer" ("As St. Quirinus' Day goes, so will the summer"). The Ice Saints is the name given in German, Austrian, and Swiss folklore to a period noted to bring a brief spell of colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere under the Julian Calendar in May, because the Roman Catholic feast days of St. Mamertus, St. Pancras, and St. Servatus fall on the days of May 11, May 12, and May 13 respectively. In Northern Spain, the four yearly periods of ember days (témporas) are used to predict the weather of the following season.

Cats and dogs eat grass before a rain. While it is true that cats and dogs eat grass, it has nothing to do with the weather and is because cats and dogs are not exclusively carnivorous. Some researchers believe that dogs eat grass as an emetic when feeling ill.

Centered in the German speaking world, there was the belief that frogs could predict the weather. It grew from observing European tree frogs climb up vegetation in sunny weather, and led to frogs being held inside jars equipped with a small ladder. The term Wetterfrosch (weather frog) has survived as a humorous, if somewhat derogatory epithet for meteorologists, insinuating their predictions can not be trusted.

Some early barometers used leeches in a jar to predict when a storm was coming. This is because leeches tend to climb and become agitated when low pressure is approaching. Ref

Rain before seven, clear by eleven. Late night rains and early morning rains may simply be the last precipitation of a passing weather front. However, since fronts pass at night as often as they do in the day, morning rain is no predictor of a dry afternoon. However, this lore can describe non frontal weather. Given sufficient surface heating, a late day rainstorm may continue to develop into the night, produce early precipitation, then dissipate by late morning. This, though, is the exception rather than the rule. Only 40% of rain is produced by convective events – 60% is the result of a frontal passage.