Мексикадағы тарихи сайлау: оппозиция жеңісі және саяси өзгерістер

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General elections were held in Mexico on Sunday, 2 July 2000. Voters went to the polls to elect a new president to serve a single six year term, replacing President Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León, who was ineligible for re election under the 1917 Constitution. The election system ran under plurality voting; 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies (300 by the first past the post system and 200 by proportional representation) for three year terms and 128 members of the Senate (three per state by first past the post – two first past the post seats are allocated to the party with the largest share of the vote; the remaining seat is given to the first runner up – and 32 by proportional representation from national party lists) for six year terms. The presidential election was won by Vicente Fox of the Alliance for Change, who received 43.4% of the vote, the first time the opposition had won an election since the Mexican Revolution. In the congressional elections the Alliance for Change emerged as the largest faction in the Chamber of Deputies with 224 of the 500 seats, whilst the Institutional Revolutionary Party remained the largest faction in the Senate with 60 of the 128 seats in the Senate. Voter turnout was between 63 and 64% in the elections. This historically significant election made Fox the first president elected from an opposition party since Francisco I. Madero in 1911, as well as the first in 71 years to defeat, with 43 percent of the vote, the then dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party.

President Ernesto Zedillo sought to break away from the 71 year old PRI succession ritual, so the PRI conducted an unprecedented internal process to choose its presidential candidate for the 2000 elections. The president arrived and declared, "The so called dedazo is dead." Francisco Labastida Ochoa, Humberto Roque Villanueva, Manuel Bartlett and Roberto Madrazo were the pre candidates. Even after the president made his statement, there was still a sense that Francisco Labastida was the most likely to become the official candidate because he was the closest to President Zedillo. Madrazo's confrontation with Labastida during the election was notable, as was Madrazo's "challenging" stance toward Zedillo, exemplified by his campaign slogan, "Give a Madrazo to Dedazo." On 7 November 1999 the election was held and there were the now famous and well known fraudulent tactics such as the "crazy mouse," "pregnant ballot boxes," and carry over were present.

Porfirio Muñoz Ledo and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas declared their interest in being candidates for the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), a contest that ended with Muñoz Ledo's dismissal from the party. According to Muñoz Ledo it was inevitable that the same person would run for office a third time if there was no "true democratic process" in the PRD. Muñoz Ledo was later confirmed as the candidate for the Authentic Party of the Mexican Revolution and Cárdenas was designated as the PRD candidate. Fox reaffirmed his strong religious stance and identified himself as a devout Catholic. Even though Fox had finally won the presidency, the promises he made to the churches in that letter were not kept given that the PAN failed to secure an absolute majority in the Congress of the Union.

PRI candidate Francisco Labastida led in nearly all the polls throughout the first months of the campaign, although in the final two months his lead grew smaller; on the other hand, PAN candidate Vicente Fox was at second place in most of the polls, but in May and June his percentage of supporters increased and he led in many of the final polls. Given that the overwhelming majority of the polls failed to predict Fox's victory and instead had indicated that Labastida would win by comfortable margins, it has been asserted that many of those polled lied about their preferences, fearing that if they stated support for an opposition party, they would be stripped by the PRI of the government assistance programs they were receiving. Indeed, the Reforma newspaper, which had predicted a Labastida victory in all of the polls they published during the campaign, attributed their mistake to the so called fear factor. Date Poll source FoxPAN LabastidaPRI CárdenasPRD Others Samplesize Ref. November 199939%43%18%0% N/A44%39%16%0% N/A38%41.8%16.5%3.7% 120033.3%53.1%9.9%3.7% 154233.8%46.2%11.7%8.3% 153737%47%11%4% 1500December 199934%47%13%6% 164739.2%47.1%12.5%1.2% 147537.8%42.2%17.8%2.2% 1006January 200032%51%11%6% 151038.6%48.2%12.0%1.2% 154439%45%14%2% 20 86636.7%49.7%11.9%1.7% 167842.4%43.5%13.0%1.1% 1500February 200041.1%42.2%14.5%2.2% 120032.4%45.5%16.1%6.0% 134644%36%18%2% 111334.5%45.3%17.2%3.0% 269738.8%41.8%15.7%3.7% 143838.6%47.0%13.2%1.2% 151037.8%50.0%11.0%1.2% 239735.7%40.5%22.6%1.2% 1182March 200031.8%46.1%17.0%5.1% 132233.4%51.6%13.6%1.5% 112739.3%41.6%16.9%2.2% 120039.7%45.0%12.7%2.6% 143838.6%47.0%13.3%1.2% 153343.3%38.8%16.5%1.4% 120032.3%47.9%17.0%2.8% N/AApril 200031.2%45.7%17.6%5.5% N/A41.4%46.0%12.3%0.3% 150032.7%47.4%17.7%2.2% N/A42%45%12%1% 164736.9%50.4%10.0%2.7% 192039.2%42.2%14.0%4.5% 107446.3%41.6%9.3%2.8% 1062May 200039%45%12%4% 159039.1%45.5%12.5%2.9% 800040%42%16%2% 154743.6%38.6%16.4%1.4% N/A42.2%35.9%16.2%5.7% 178736%43%17%4% 200539.0%42.7%15.1%3.2% 2450June 200041%35%20%4% 209541%35%20%4% 209539%43%15%3% 242343%38%17%3% 140036%42%19%3% 275039%38%19%3% 228736%37%27%0% 136239%42%16%3% 154541%44%15%1% 133038%41%18%3% 180041%36%20%3% 154239%43%15%3% 130936%42%16%6% N/A

Some isolated incidents of irregularities and problems were reported. For example, one irregularity in the southern state of Campeche involved the European Union electoral observer Rocco Buttiglione and could have created problems for President Ernesto Zedillo had the PRI candidate won. Overall, however, electoral observers identified little evidence that those incidents were centrally coordinated (as opposed to led by local PRI officials), and critics concluded that those irregularities which did occur did not materially alter the outcome of the presidential vote, which had been more definitive than expected. Civic organizations fielded more than 80,000 trained electoral observers, foreign observers were invited to witness the process, and numerous "quick count" operations and exit polls (not all of them independent) validated the official vote tabulation. The largest exit poll was organized by the U. S. firm Penn, Schoen & Berland, financed by a Dallas based organization called Democracy Watch with the support of the Vicente Fox campaign, who were concerned about possible election fraud. Numerous electoral reforms implemented after the widely derided and fraudulent 1988 election opened up the Mexican political system, and since then opposition parties have made historic gains in elections at all levels. The chief electoral concerns shifted from outright fraud to campaign fairness issues and, between 1995 and 1996, the political parties negotiated constitutional amendments to address these issues. The legislation implemented included major points of consensus that had been worked out with the opposition parties. Under the new laws, public financing predominated over private contributions to political parties, procedures for auditing parties were tightened, and the authority and independence of the electoral institutions were strengthened. The court system was also given greatly expanded authority to hear civil rights cases on electoral matters brought by individuals or groups. In short, the extensive reform efforts of the 1990s "leveled the playing field" for the parties.

Demographic subgroupFoxLabastidaCárdenasOther% oftotal vote Total vote4236166 100Gender Men473220152 Women434014348Age 18 24503217118 25 29473416316 30 34493415215 35 39473712413 40 45413520411 46 5044371818 51 5446401316 55 5932432415 60+35422218Education None30462138 Primary354618134 Secondary493415222 Preparatory532816321 University602215315Employment Public sector413719318 Private sector533115126 Self employed423619324 Student59191755 Housewife414315125Region North503712123 Center West483712318 Center433420335 South413720224Source: Reforma.