АҚШ Ұлттық қауіпсіздік комиссиясының есебі

Security commission
The U. S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (USCNS/21), also known as the Hart Rudman Commission or Hart Rudman Task Force on Homeland Security, was chartered by Secretary of Defense William Cohen in 1998 to provide a comprehensive review of US national security requirements in the 21st century. USCNS/21 was tasked "to analyze the emerging international security environment; to develop a US national security strategy appropriate to that environment; and to assess the various security institutions for their current relevance to the effective and efficient implementation of that strategy, and to recommend adjustments as necessary". Released on 31 January 2001, USCNS/21 was the most exhaustive review of US national security strategy since the National Security Act of 1947. USCNS/21 was released in three distinct phases. The first phase, New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century (see further below), anticipates the emerging international security environment within the first quarter of the 21st century and examines how the US fits into that environment. The second phase, Seeking a National Strategy: A Concert for Preserving Security and Promoting Freedom (see further below), proposes a new US national security strategy based on the anticipated threats and conditions outlined in the first phase report. The third phase, Roadmap for National Security: Imperative for Change (see further below), recommends changes to the US government's structure, legislation, and policy to reflect a new national security strategy based on the anticipated 21st century international security environment.

Charles G. Boyd

Arnold L. Punaro

Dr. Pat Pentland

New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century was the first report completed by the Commission. Released on 15 September 1999, it attempts to provide a picture of the international security environment within the first quarter of the 21st century and the anticipated role of the US in that environment. The Commission anticipates an increasingly technologically, economically, and socially integrated world, i. e. increasing globalization amidst social and political fragmentation. The report provides twelve basic assumptions of that environment and fourteen conclusions based on those assumptions.

An economically strong United States is likely to remain a primary political, military, and cultural force through 2025, and will thus have a significant role in shaping the international environment. The stability and direction of American society and politics will help shape US foreign policy goals and capacities, and hence the way the US may affect the global future. Science and technology will continue to advance and become more widely available and utilized around the world, but their benefits will be less evenly distributed. World energy supplies will remain largely based on fossil fuels. While much of the world will experience economic growth, disparities in income will increase and widespread poverty will persist. The international aspects of business and commerce (trade, transportation, telecommunications, investment and finance, manufacturing, and professional services) will continue to expand. Non governmental organizations (refugee aid organizations, religious and ethnic advocacy groups, environmental and other single issue lobbies, international professional associations, and others) will continue to grow in importance, numbers, and in their international role. Though it will raise important issues of sovereignty, the US will find in its national interest to work with and strengthen a variety of international organizations. The US will remain the principal military power in the world. Weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, and biological) and weapons of mass disruption (information warfare) will continue to proliferate to a wider range of state and non state actors. Maintenance of a robust nuclear deterrent therefore remains essential as well as investment in new forms of defense against these threats. We should expect conflicts in which adversaries, because of cultural affinities different from our own, will resort to forms and levels of violence shocking to our sensibilities. As the US confronts a variety of complex threats, it will often be dependent on allies; but it will find reliable alliances more difficult to establish and sustain.

America will become increasingly vulnerable to hostile attack on our homeland, and our military superiority will not help us. Rapid advances in information and biotechnologies will create new vulnerabilities for US security. New technologies will divide the world as well as draw it together. The national security of all advanced states will be increasingly affected by the vulnerabilities of the evolving global economic infrastructure. Energy will continue to have major strategic significance. All borders will be more porous; some will bend and some will break. The sovereignty of states will come under pressure, but will endure. Fragmentation or failure of states will occur, with destabilizing effects on neighboring states. Foreign crises will be replete with atrocities and the deliberate terrorizing of civilian populations. Space will become a critical and competitive military environment. The essence of war will not change. US intelligence will face more challenging adversaries, and even excellent intelligence will not prevent all surprises. The US will be called upon frequently to intervene militarily in a time of uncertain alliances and with the prospect of fewer forward deployed forces. The emerging security environment in the next quarter century will require different military and other national capabilities.

Released on 15 April 2000, Seeking a National Strategy: A Concert for Preserving Security and Promoting Freedom proposes a new national security strategy based on the anticipated 21st century international security environment. The new strategy must consider how to minimize the potential destabilizing effects of the contradictory trends of globalization and political fragmentation while promoting US interests and values worldwide.

Building on these considerations, the Commission suggests categorizing US national interests into three categories: survival, critical, and significant. Survival interests are defined as, "without which America would cease to exist as we know it". These interests encompass safety from direct attacks by hostile states and terrorists through the use of weapons of mass destruction. They also include preserving America's founding principles as outlined in the US Constitution. Critical interests are defined as, "causally one step removed from survival interests". The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism will be the gravest threat to US national security in the 21st century. These threats must be taken seriously and the highest priority must be given to prevention and deterrence from such attacks. "Maintain social cohesion, economic competitiveness, technological ingenuity, and military strength". The US must re focus on education, specifically in the sciences, to ensure its technological dominance in the 21st century. Furthermore, the US must reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and investigate other energy alternatives. "Assist the integration of key major powers, especially China, Russia, and India, into the mainstream of the emerging international system". The US, along with the G7, must successfully manage the effects, both positive and negative, of globalization on the world stage. "Adapt US alliances and other regional mechanisms to a new era in which America's partners seek greater autonomy and responsibility". The US must maintain its current alliances and relationships with other nations as a mechanism to preserve and foster international peace and security. "Help the international community tame the disintegrative forces spawned by an era of change". The US must work with the international community to address and manage the problem of failed states.

Released on 31 January 2001, Roadmap for National Security: Imperative for Change suggests "significant changes must be made in the structures and processes of the US national security apparatus". The Commission believes that without these reforms, "American power and influence cannot be sustained". Five key areas are highlighted for reform, followed by the Commissions specific recommendations for each area.