Қарыздың өтелмеу қаупі және банк секторына әсері

Loan that is unlikely to be repaid
A non performing loan (NPL) is a bank loan that is subject to late repayment or is unlikely to be repaid by the borrower in full. Non performing loans represent a major challenge for the banking sector, as they reduce profitability. They are often claimed to prevent banks from lending more to businesses and consumers, which in turn slows economic growth, although this theory is disputed. In the European Union, the management of the NPLs resulting from the global financial crisis of 2008 has become a politically sensitive topic, culminating in 2017 with the decision by the European Council to task the European Commission to launch an action plan to tackle NPLs. The action plan supports the fostering of a secondary market for NPLs and the creation of Asset Management Companies (aka bad banks). In December 2020, this action plan was revised in the wake of the COVID 19 pandemic crisis.

Although the 2020 has seen an actual decrease of non performing loans, the issue is expected to represent a major challenge for the banking industry in the post COVID 19 era. The ECB has warned that the amount of NPLs in the Eurozone could reach up to 1.4 trillions euros of bad loans, however academic literature suggest the future rise of NPLs will be primarily driven by the pace of the economic recovery after COVID 19, and in particular the level of unemployment. In the context of the COVID 19 crisis, the deactivation of debt payment moratoria and tax deferral are also likely to cause an increase of NPLs. To prepare for the likely new wave of NPLs, the ECB Supervisory Board's chair Andrea Enria has proposed the creation of a European Bad Bank and has imposed a ban on dividend distribution by banks, in a move to pressure banks to proactively tackle NPLs. The ECB has also indicated to work on the development of an "Amazon style" platform to allow banks and investors to trade NPLs on a secondary market. Meanwhile the European Commission has revised its action plan in December 2020 by focusing on speeding up the fostering of a secondary market for NPLs and to offer support for national Asset Management Companies. The proposal was met with criticism by civil society groups.

Non performing property loans are found to lead to banking crises. The need to identify the relationships between macroeconomic factors and NPLs had been crucial for governments and financial institutions to monitor the economy and undertake necessary policies or decisions to control and reduce the number of NPPLs in the financial system. The economic crisis caused by a rise of NPPLs in any particular country had been known to spread to other economies, as seen in the United States of America’s subprime mortgage crisis. During the sub prime mortgage crisis, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) has gone through difficult periods of volatile NPPLs and the issue of NPPLs remains a major challenge amongst ASEAN member countries. Early research of NPLs was dominated by internal procedures and specific attributes of the lending banks in approving, controlling and monitoring the loans to ensure they remain active and not impaired. In recent years, research showed that property loans made up the highest percentage of NPLs in countries like Malaysia and US. This had refocused research into the how macroeconomic conditions affect non performing property loans.