Ядерный арсенал Израиля: возможности и политика неопределенности

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Israel is believed to possess weapons of mass destruction, and to be one of four nuclear armed countries not recognized as a Nuclear Weapons State by the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US Congress Office of Technology Assessment has recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having undeclared chemical warfare capabilities, and an offensive biological warfare program. It is unknown if Israel's reported thermonuclear weapons are in the megaton range. Israel is also reported to possess a wide range of different systems, including neutron bombs, tactical nuclear weapons, and suitcase nukes. Israel is believed to manufacture its nuclear weapons at the Negev Nuclear Research Center. On 5 November 2023, amid the 2023 Israel Hamas War, Heritage Minister Amihai Eliyahu stated that the use of atomic weapons in the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip could be "one of the possibilities". He was neither a member the security cabinet nor of the war cabinet, and was subsequently suspended from cabinet meetings.

Nuclear weapons delivery mechanisms include Jericho 3 missiles, with a range of 4,800 km to 6,500 km (though a 2004 source estimated its range at up to 11,500 km), and which are believed to provide a second strike option, as well as regional coverage from road mobile Jericho 2 IRBMs. Israel's nuclear capable ballistic missiles are believed to be buried so far underground that they would survive a nuclear attack. Additionally, Israel is believed to have an offshore nuclear second strike capability, using submarine launched nuclear capable cruise missiles, which can be launched from the Israeli Navy's Dolphin class submarines. The Israeli Air Force has F 15I and F 16I Sufa fighter aircraft which are capable of delivering tactical and strategic nuclear weapons at long distances using conformal fuel tanks and supported by their aerial refueling fleet of modified Boeing 707s. In 2006, then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert appeared to acknowledge that Israel had nuclear weapons when he stated on German TV that Iran was "aspiring to have nuclear weapons as America, France, Israel, Russia". This admission was in contrast to the long running Israeli government policy of deliberate ambiguity on whether it has nuclear weapons. The policy held that Israel would "not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East." Former International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei regarded Israel as a state possessing nuclear weapons. Much of what is known about Israel's nuclear program comes from revelations in 1986 by Mordechai Vanunu, a technician at the Negev Nuclear Research Center who served an 18 year prison sentence as a result. Israel has not signed the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) but supports establishment of a Middle East Zone free of weapons of mass destruction.

Israel has signed but not ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). In 1983 a report by the CIA stated that Israel, after "finding itself surrounded by frontline Arab states with budding CW capabilities, became increasingly conscious of its vulnerability to chemical attack undertook a program of chemical warfare preparations in both offensive and protective areas In late 1982 a probable CW nerve agent production facility and a storage facility were identified at the Dimona Sensitive Storage Area in the Negev Desert. Other CW agent production is believed to exist within a well developed Israeli chemical industry." There are also speculations that a chemical weapons program might be located at the Israel Institute for Biological Research (IIBR) in Ness Ziona. 190 liters of dimethyl methylphosphonate, a CWC schedule 2 chemical used in the synthesis of sarin nerve gas, was discovered in the cargo of El Al Flight 1862 after it crashed in 1992 en route to Tel Aviv. Israel said the material was non toxic and was to have been used to test filters that protect against chemical weapons. It had also been clearly listed on the cargo manifest in accordance with international regulations. The shipment was from a U. S. chemical plant to the IIBR under a U. S. Department of Commerce license. In 1993, the U. S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment WMD proliferation assessment recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having undeclared offensive chemical warfare capabilities. Former US deputy assistant secretary of defense responsible for chemical and biological defense Dr. Bill Richardson said in 1998 "I have no doubt that Israel has worked on both chemical and biological offensive things for a long time There's no doubt they've had stuff for years."

Israel is suspected to have developed an offensive biological warfare capability, per the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment. It is assumed that the Israel Institute for Biological Research in Ness Ziona develops vaccines and antidotes for chemical and biological warfare. It is generally agreed Israel does not have a stockpile of chemical weapons; it is speculated that Israel retains an active ability to produce and disseminate biological weapons, likely as a result of its extremely complex biodefense program. Israel has taken steps to strengthen its export control regulations on dual use biotechnologies.