Аллан Лихтман: Историк и предсказатель президентских выборов США

American political historian

Allan Jay Lichtman ('/l//ɪ//k//t//m//ən/; born April 4, 1947) is an American historian. He has taught at American University in Washington, D. C., since 1973. Lichtman created the Keys to the White House model with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis Borok in 1981. The model uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election. Using this model, Lichtman has accurately predicted the winner of every U. S. presidential election since 1984, with the exception of 2000, although he did forecast successfully that Al Gore would win the popular vote that year. He ran for the U. S. Senate seat from Maryland in 2006, finishing in sixth place in the Democratic primary. In 2017, Lichtman published The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.

Lichtman began teaching at American University in 1973, rising to chair of the history department, and was named scholar/professor of the year in 1993. Outside of the classroom, Lichtman has testified as an expert witness on civil rights in more than 70 cases for the U. S. Department of Justice and for civil rights groups such as the NAACP, the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund and Puerto Rican Legal Defense and Education Fund, and the Southern Poverty Law Center. He also consulted for Vice President Al Gore and Senator Ted Kennedy. He assisted the U. S. Commission on Civil Rights investigation into voting irregularities in Florida during the 2000 election, submitting his statistical analysis of balloting problems. Lichtman concluded "there were major racial disparities in ballot rejection rates". In the early 1980s while living in California as a visiting professor at the California Institute of Technology, Lichtman had a 17 show stint on the game show Tic Tac Dough. He won $100,000 during his time on the show.

Lichtman is best known for the "Keys" system, presented in his books The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency and The Keys to the White House. The system uses thirteen historical factors to predict whether the popular vote in the election for president of the United States will be won by the candidate of the party holding the presidency (regardless of whether the president is the candidate). The keys were selected based on their correlations with the presidential election results from 1860 through 1980, using statistical methods adapted from the work of geophysicist Vladimir Keilis Borok for predicting earthquakes. The system then correctly predicted the popular vote winner in each of the elections between 1984 and 2012, including a correct prediction of Gore as the popular vote winner in 2000. Lichtman has provided commentary for networks and cable channels such as CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News. In the 2020 presidential election, Lichtman correctly predicted that Democrat Joe Biden would defeat Republican Donald Trump in both the popular vote and the electoral college. Nate Silver has criticized Lichtman's keys, writing that several of them are subjective. For example, two of the keys are whether the incumbent has charisma and whether the challenger has charisma. Silver wrote, "it's awfully easy to describe someone as charismatic when he or she is ahead in the polls — or when you have the advantage of hindsight and know who won an election." The Financial Times gave The Case for Impeachment a positive review, writing: "Lichtman's powerful book is a reminder that we are only at the start of the Trump investigations." The Hill gave the author praise, writing: "Lichtman has written what may be the most important book of the year." CBC News consulted law scholars that said the fulfillment of Lichtman's impeachment prediction was unlikely, especially with a Republican controlled U. S. House of Representatives. Trump was impeached by the U. S. House of Representatives on December 18, 2019, but acquitted by the U. S. Senate on February 5, 2020. In 2020, Lichtman published Repeal the Second Amendment. In the book, Lichtman argues that the only way to solve the gun violence epidemic in America is by repealing the Second Amendment.

Lichtman announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for United States Senate from Maryland in the 2006 election to replace Senator Paul Sarbanes; in a playful opening television ad, he pledged not to be a "conventional politician" and jumped into the C&O Canal in a business suit. Lichtman was seen as a long shot candidate with low support in polls. He criticized front runner U. S. Representative Ben Cardin for his votes in favor of funding for the Iraq War. In 2006, both were acquitted on all charges. Lichtman lost in the primary election to Cardin, receiving 6,919 votes (1.2%), landing him in 6th place in a field of 18. In October 2012, The Washington Post reported that he was still paying off a mortgage he took out in order to help fund his campaign.