Ceteris Paribus: Значение и Применение в Науке и Экономике

Latin phrase

Ceteris paribus (also spelled caeteris paribus) (Classical ) is a Latin phrase, meaning "other things equal"; some other English translations of the phrase are "all other things being equal", "other things held constant", "all else unchanged", and "all else being equal". A statement about a causal, empirical, or logical relation between two states of affairs is ceteris paribus if it is acknowledged that the statement, although usually accurate in expected conditions, can fail because of, or the relation can be abolished by, intervening factors. A ceteris paribus assumption is often key to scientific inquiry, because scientists seek to eliminate factors that perturb a relation of interest. Thus epidemiologists, for example, may seek to control independent variables as factors that may influence dependent variables—the outcomes of interest. Likewise, in scientific modeling, simplifying assumptions permit illustration of concepts considered relevant to the inquiry. An example in economics is "If the price of milk falls, ceteris paribus, the quantity of milk demanded will rise." This means that, if other factors, such as deflation, pricing objectives, utility, and marketing methods, do not change, the decrease in the price of milk will lead to an increase in demand for it.

Ceteris paribus has been relevant in economics for centuries, in which the majority of the phrases first uses were in economic contexts, dating back to its first traces in 1295 by Peter Olivi. The earliest case of the Latin phrase being used in the English language publications was in the 17th century by William Petty, who used the clause to condition his labour theory of value. Economist John Stuart Mill’s use of the Latin phrase had significant influences as he characterised economy through how it managed troubling factors. Economist Alfred Marshall had significant effects on the popularity for the ceteris paribus clause in the 19th century. It was his support to economics where he promoted partial equilibrium analysis, claiming that this analysis, and similar analysis’ hold due to the ceteris paribus clauses. For example, it can be predicted that if the price of beef increases—ceteris paribus—the quantity of beef demanded by buyers will decrease. In this example, the clause is used to operationally describe everything surrounding the relationship between both the price and the quantity demanded of an ordinary good. This operational description intentionally ignores both known and unknown factors that may also influence the relationship between price and quantity demanded, and thus to assume ceteris paribus is to assume away any interference with the given example. Such factors that would be intentionally ignored include: a change in the price of substitute goods, (e. g., the price of pork or lamb); a change in the level of risk aversion among buyers (e. g., due to an increase in the fear of mad cow disease); and a change in the level of overall demand for a good regardless of its current price (e. g., a societal shift toward vegetarianism). The clause is often loosely translated as "holding all else constant." It does not imply that no other things will in fact change; rather, it isolates the effect of one particular change. Holding all other things constant is directly analogous to using a partial derivative in calculus rather than a total derivative, and to running a regression containing multiple variables rather than just one in order to isolate the individual effect of one of the variables. Ceteris paribus is an extension of scientific modeling. The scientific method is built on identifying, isolating, and testing the impact of an independent variable on a dependent variable. One thing to note is that since economic variables can only be isolated in theory and not in practice, ceteris paribus can only ever highlight tendencies, not absolutes.

The clause is used to consider the effect of some causes in isolation, by assuming that other influences are absent. Alfred Marshall expressed the use of the clause as follows:

The above passage by Marshall highlights two ways in which the ceteris paribus clause may be used: The one is hypothetical, in the sense that some factor is assumed fixed in order to analyse the influence of another factor in isolation. This would be hypothetical isolation. An example would be the hypothetical separation of the income effect and the substitution effect of a price change, which actually go together. The other use of the ceteris paribus clause is to see it as a means for obtaining an approximate solution. Here it would yield a substantive isolation. Substantive isolation has two aspects: temporal and causal. Temporal isolation requires the factors fixed under the ceteris paribus clause to actually move so slowly relative to the other influence that they can be taken as practically constant at any point in time. So, if vegetarianism spreads very slowly, inducing a slow decline in the demand for beef, and the market for beef clears comparatively quickly, we can determine the price of beef at any instant by the intersection of supply and demand, and the changing demand for beef will account for the price changes over time (Temporary Equilibrium Method). The other aspect of substantive isolation is causal isolation: those factors frozen under a ceteris paribus clause should not significantly be affected by the processes under study. If a change in government policies induces changes in consumers' behaviour on the same time scale, the assumption that consumer behaviour remains unchanged while policy changes is inadmissible as a substantive isolation (Lucas critique).

In reality, there are certain limitations for the ceteris paribus condition, in many situations it is not feasible for economists to keep factors constant or make assumptions. When testing, Economists are unable to regulate every variable or are able to classify important or potential variables. Although there are certain limitations with the ceteris paribus condition, when researching tendencies in the market it is quite significant.