Шешімдерді жалғастырудың күшейе түсуі

A human behavior pattern in which the participant takes on increasingly greater risk

Escalation of commitment is a human behavior pattern in which an individual or group facing increasingly negative outcomes from a decision, action, or investment nevertheless continue the behavior instead of altering course. The actor maintains behaviors that are irrational, but align with previous decisions and actions. Economists and behavioral scientists use a related term, sunk cost fallacy, to describe the justification of increased investment of money or effort in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment ("sunk cost") despite new evidence suggesting that the future cost of continuing the behavior outweighs the expected benefit. In sociology, irrational escalation of commitment or commitment bias describe similar behaviors. The phenomenon and the sentiment underlying them are reflected in such proverbial images as "throwing good money after bad", or "In for a penny, in for a pound", or "It's never the wrong time to make the right decision", or "If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging."

Escalation of commitment was first described by Barry M. Staw in his 1976 paper, "Knee deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action". Researchers, inspired by the work of Staw, conducted studies that tested factors, situations and causes of escalation of commitment. The research introduced other analyses of situations and how people approach problems and make decisions. Some of the earliest work stemmed from events in which this phenomenon had an effect and help explain the phenomenon. Researchers have also developed an argument regarding how escalation of commitment is observed in two different categories. Many researchers believe that the need to escalate resources is linked to expectancy theory. "According to such a viewpoint, decision makers assess the probability that additional resource allocations will lead to goal attainment, as well as the value of goal attainment (i. e., rewards minus costs), and thereby generate a subjective expected utility associated with the decision to allocate additional resources."

Escalation of commitment can many times cause behavior change by means of locking into resources. One of the first examples of escalation of commitment was described by George Ball, who wrote to President Lyndon Johnson to explain to him the predictions of the war outcome:

Self justification thought process is a part of commitment decisions of leaders and managers of a group and can therefore cause a rise in commitment levels. This attitude provides "one explanation for why people escalate commitment to their past investments." Managers make decisions that reflect previous behavior. Managers tend to recall and follow information that is aligned to their behavior to create consistency for their current and future decisions. If a group member or outside party recognizes inconsistent decision making, this can alter the leadership role of the manager. Managers have external influence from society, peers, and authority, which can significantly alter a manager's perception on what factors realistically matter when making decisions.

Prospect theory helps to describe the natural reactions and processes involved in making a decision in a risk taking situation. Prospect theory makes the argument for how levels of wealth, whether that is people, money, or time, affect how a decision is made. Researchers were particularly interested in how one perceives a situation based on costs and benefits.

Groups engage in temporal comparisons, which means that you compare actions and behaviors at "different points in time."

Project determinants are those that refer to the original commitments and decisions made at a project's beginning. This includes general project characteristics and initial financial costs. Among them, decision risk, opportunity cost information, and information acquisition have been found to have negative relationships with escalation of commitment. Decision uncertainty, positive performance trend information, and expressed preference for initial decision have been found to have positive relationships. It's more likely that risks will be taken at these points than in a project closer to a visible midpoint.

Social determinants are those that refer to the expectations and influence of other individuals or groups on project actions. Included in these, group identity or cohesive strength has been found to have the most influence on escalation of commitment while public evaluation of decision and resistance to decision from others has little significance in relation. Escalation of commitment can then occur in any of these situations. External groups can play an even larger part in escalating commitment if their power is greater than that of the group taking action and they use that power to directly lead and influence. Members can eliminate some of the escalation potential if they come to a better decision earlier on in the process and avoid the need to change course dramatically. Yet they can also hold onto a larger base of support for their initial actions to the point where escalation potential is increased. In this case, groupthink assists in keeping with the original decision and pressures towards conformity rather than dividing the group with other options. Also, a group whose members are not cohesive can have decreased escalation potential due to conflicts and varying levels of inclusion in the process. Business reputation, customer and share loss, and financial loss become risks.