Ядерное разделение и распространение: новые вызовы и соглашения.

Concept in NATO's nuclear deterrence policy

Nuclear sharing is a concept in NATO's policy of nuclear deterrence, which allows member countries without nuclear weapons of their own to participate in the planning for the use of nuclear weapons by NATO. In particular, it provides for involvement of the armed forces of those countries in delivering nuclear weapons in the event of their use. As part of nuclear sharing, the participating countries carry out consultations and make common decisions on nuclear weapons policy, maintain technical equipment (notably nuclear capable airplanes) required for the use of nuclear weapons and store nuclear weapons on their territory. In case of war, the United States has told NATO allies the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) would no longer be in effect.

On 27 February 2022, shortly after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarusians voted in a referendum to repeal the post Soviet Constitutional prohibition on basing of nuclear weapons in Belarus. At a meeting on 25 June 2022, Russian President Putin and President of Belarus Lukashenko agreed the deployment of Russian short range nuclear capable missiles. The deployment of nuclear warheads for nuclear sharing would require a further decision, possibly after a number of years, and might be tied to future NATO decisions. Russia will supply Belarus with nuclear capable Iskander M missile systems. Additionally, Putin said that he would facilitate the modifications necessary for Belarusian Su 25 bombers to carry nuclear missiles.

It is common belief among foreign officials that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have an understanding in which Pakistan would supply Saudi Arabia with warheads if security in the Persian Gulf was threatened. A Western official told The Times that Saudi Arabia could have the nuclear warheads in a matter of days of approaching Pakistan. Pakistan's ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Muhammed Naeem Khan, was quoted as saying, "Pakistan considers the security of Saudi Arabia not just as a diplomatic or an internal matter but as a personal matter." Naeem also said that the Saudi leadership considered Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to be one country and that any threat to Saudi Arabia is also a threat to Pakistan. Other vendors were also likely to enter into a bidding war if Riyadh indicated that it was seeking nuclear warheads. Both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have denied the existence of any such agreement. Western intelligence sources have told The Guardian that "the Saudi monarchy paid for up to 60% of the Pakistani nuclear programme, and in return has the option to buy a small nuclear arsenal ('five to six warheads') off the shelf". Saudi Arabia has potential dual purpose delivery infrastructure, including Tornado IDS and F 15S fighter bombers and improved Chinese CSS 2 intermediate range ballistic missiles with accuracy sufficient for nuclear warheads but delivered with high explosive warheads. In November 2013, a variety of sources told BBC Newsnight that Saudi Arabia was able to obtain nuclear weapons from Pakistan at will. The new report further stated, according to western experts, it was alleged that Pakistan's defense sector, including its missile and defense labs, had received plentiful financial assistance from Saudi Arabia. Gary Samore, an adviser to Barack Obama, said, "I do think that the Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan."